EASTERN CARVER COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSHazel H. ReinhardtDecember 12, 2013

SUMMARYProjected enrollment

Single-family detached housing units projected to increase by 2,047 units in the next five years This large increase in housing units creates a divergence

in projections made via the cohort survival method and the housing unit method. In 2018-19: 3,809 total K-5 enrollment projected by the cohort model

Reflects the decline in district births and current survival rates

4,606 resident K-5 enrollment via housing starts method Attendance area specific yields for new units and

turnover

SUMMARYImmediate effect of the increase in housing

units on middle school and high school enrollments is relatively small. Most of the effect will come when the elementary students “age” into middle school after 2018-19 and into high school in the 2020s

Eastern Carver County Public School District characterized by a large loss of students through the public options of open enrollment and charter schoolsNet loss of about 1,000 students

TOTAL ENROLLMENT HISTORYK-12 TOTAL ENROLLMENT

2004-05 8,091

2005-06 8,397

2006-07 8,585

2007-08 8,662

2008-09 8,630

2009-10 8,838

2010-11 8,908

2011-12 8,976

2012-13 9,179

2013-14 9,246Excludes Early Childhood but includes the ALC

COMPONENTS OF ENROLLMENT CHANGE

Fall to FallTotal Natural

Increase/Decrease

NetMigration# %

2004 to 2005 306 3.8 138 168

2005 to 2006 188 2.2 66 122

2006 to 2007 77 0.9 2 75

2007 to 2008 -32 0.4 -35 3

2008 to 2009 208 2.4 81 127

2009 to 2010 70 0.8 23 47

2010 to 2011 68 0.8 -22 90

2011 to 2012 203 2.3 45 158

2012 to 2013 67 0.7 4 63

TOTAL ENROLLMENTGrad

e2003-

042004-

052005-

062006-

072007-

082008-

092009-

102010-

112011-

122012-

13

K 639 664 681 605 597 672 645 605 655 678

1 668

2 671

3 673

4 727

5 670

6 695

7 727

8 706

9 807

10 748

11 781

12 695

Total

9,246

AVERAGE CLASS SIZE“Average” class size

• 681 K-5• 709 6-8• 758 9-12

• These “average class sizes point to flat if not declining enrollment unless kindergarten is larger than today

RESIDENT LIVE BIRTHSRESIDENT BIRTHS

Year Minnesota Carver County

1998 65,207 1,052

1999 65,953 1,086

2000 67,451 1,140

2001 66,617 1,183

2002 68,037 1,165

2003 70,053 1,182

2004 70,617 1,253

2005 70,950 1,237

2006 73,515 1,338

2007 73,675 1,269

2008 72,382 1,194

2009 70,617 1,142

2010 68,407 1,186

2011 68,416 1,035

DISTRICT RESIDENT BIRTHS

1998-1999 576

1999-2000 621

2000-2001 664

2001-2002 615

2002-2003 647

2003-2004 658

2004-2005 677

2005-2006 724

2006-2007 715

2007-2008 635

2008-2009 605

2009-2010 605

2010-2011 607

2011-2012 518

2012-2013 552

MACRO TRENDSAging population

• Less mobility• Decrease in school age population per household• Shift in size of adult age groups

Less demand for single-family detached housing

More births this decade and the next (Gen Y)• Another enrollment cycle (third)

Rising elementary enrollment in the first half of the cycle

Another large graduating class about 2040 (end of cycle)

PROJECTION METHODOLOGIESCohort survival method

Projections by gradeReflects recent births and current size of

gradesDifficult to calibrate survival rates to reflect

additional housing units, especially if a large number of units

Housing starts methodCrude, only a total projection, no projection by

gradeReflects new housing units and turnoverDoes not reflect recent births or differences in

current grade sizes

KINDERGARTEN CAPTURE RATESCohort survival method

Kindergarten Assumptions Low is 99.2%, the average of the past two years High is 106.8%, this year (fall 2013)

NET MIGRATIONSCHOOL YEAR TO SCHOOL YEAR

Grade 04 to 05

05 to 06

06 to 07

07 to 08

08 to 09

09 to 10

10 to 11

11 to 12

12 to 13

K-5 139 69 45 16 75 51 17 100 60

6-8 20 14 34 -14 68 32 32 20 -14

9-12 9 39 -4 1 -16 -36 41 38 17

Total 168 122 75 3 127 47 90 158 63

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSYear

Low KLow Mig

Low KHigh Mig

High KLow Mig

High KHigh Mig

2013-14 9,246 9,246 9,246 9,246

2014-15 9,252 9,245 9,298 9,291

2015-16 9,191 9,185 9,285 9,279

2016-17 9,167 9,165 9,309 9,308

2017-18 9,005 9,004 9,190 9,190

2018-19 8,917 8,930 9,146 9,160

2019-20 8,909 8,939 9,192 9,223

2020-21 8,954 8,992 9,291 9,331

2021-22 9,037 9,075 9,432 9,473

2022-23 9,069 9,115 9,525 9,576

2023-24 9,158 9,216 9,680 9,743

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSK-5 6-8 9-12 Total

2013-14 4,087 2,128 3,031 9,246

2018-19

Low K/Low Mig

3,743 2,115 3,059 8,917

Low K/High Mig

3,769 2,133 3,027 8,930

High K/Low Mig

3,972 2,115 3,059 9,146

High K/High Mig

4,000 2,133 3,027 9,160

2023-24

Low K/Low Mig

4,227 1,898 3,033 9,158

Low K/High Mig

4,257 1,935 3,023 9,216

High K/Low Mig

4,548 2,043 3,089 9,680

High K/High Mig

4,581 2,083 3,079 9,743

ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENT

By SchoolBy Attendance Area

GRADE 1-5 ENROLLMENTSchool 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Bluff Creek 477 476 480 492 478

Chanhassen 502 478 455 407 417

Chaska 505 469 444 428 433

Clover Ridge 672 686 704 709 692

East Union 191 188 199 201 166

Jonathan 499 520 511 501 516

Victoria 590 637 625 607 623

LAA 41 84

Total 3,436 3,454 3,418 3,345 3,409

PROJECTED DEVELOPMENT FOR NEXT FIVE YEARS

CitySingle-Family

Detached Townhomes Condos

Carver 786 0 0

Chanhassen 346 366 0

Chaska 415* 0* 0

Victoria 445 10 0

Total 1,992 376 0* A major new mixed residential development (City of Chaska) slated to begin in 2016. Between 200-300 may be built. These units are not included in the above counts

PROJECTED SINGLE-FAMILY DETACHED UNITS

Attendance Area 2014-

152015-

162016-

172017-

182018-

19Total

Bluff Creek 67 67 47 56 49 286

Chanhassen 14 14 10 12 10 60

Chaska 0 0 0 0 0 0

Clover Ridge

51 *[30] **[60] [60] [60] 51[261]

East Union 110 ***[95] [95] [95] [95] 110[490]

Jonathan 104 252 59**[30]

[30] [30] 415[505]

Victoria 180 202 63 455

Victoria South

0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 526 535[660]

179[364]

68[253]

59[244]

1,367[2,047]

**Less certain as to single-family

NEW DEVELOPMENT637 new single-family detached units in past

3.5 years2,047 projected in next 5 years

K-5 RESIDENT YIELD FROM SINGLE-FAMILY UNITS

Existing Units(pre 2010) 2010-June

2013

Non Movers Movers New Units

# Yield # Yield # Yield

Bluff Creek 1,301 0.21 234 0.30 164 0.34

Chanhassen 2,003 0.14 231 0.28 41 0.24

Chaska 1,374 0.20 196 0.24 33 0.21

Clover Ridge

1,604 0.34 309 0.29 111 0.37

East Union 638 0.25 102 0.31 3 0.33

Jonathan 1,483 0.23 226 0.22 159 0.31

Victoria 1,448 0.27 270 0.36 122 0.52

Victoria South

253 0.15 40 0.10 4 0.00

ATTENDANCE AREA PROJECTIONSRESIDENT STUDENTS ONLY

Attendance Area

2018-19 2013-14

Single-Family Units

All Other Units Total Total

Bluff Creek 486 128 614 524

Chanhassen 396 120 516 483

Chaska 331 210 541 537

Clover Ridge 737 117 854 790

East Union 351 1 352 193

Jonathan 589 162 751 594

Victoria 870 108 978 703

District wide 3,760 846 4,606 3,824

Increase of 782 resident students

PROJECTION COMPARISON2018-19

School Attendance Area*

Kindergarten 589 ---

Bluff Creek 480 614

Chanhassen 402 516

Chaska 455 541

Clover Ridge 642 854

East Union 124 352

Jonathan 499 751

Victoria 618 978

LAA 206

District wide 3,809 4,606

Difference 797 students

MIDDLE SCHOOL PROJECTIONS

By School

MIDDLE SCHOOL PROJECTIONSSchool 2013-

142014-

152015-

162016-

172017-

182018-

19

Chaska East

707 727 752 758 765 737

Chaska West

777 799 818 827 808 755

Pioneer Ridge

644 583 559 550 545 559

LAA 84

Sum 2,128 2,109 2,129 2,135 2,118 2,051

MIDDLE SCHOOL HOUSING UNITPROJECTION

Immediate effect of new units is small205 additional students; some will leave middle

school before others arriveLarge impact after 2018-19 as elementary

students “age” into middle school

HIGH SCHOOL PROJECTIONS

By School

HIGH SCHOOL PROJECTIONSSchool 2013-

142014-

152015-

162016-

172017-

182018-

19

Chanhassen 1,613 1,635 1,658 1,665 1,639 1,669

Chaska 1,346 1,366 1,334 1,324 1,284 1,303

IAA 72

District wide

3,031 3,045 3,032 3,034 2,970 3,027

HIGH SCHOOL HOUSING UNITPROJECTION

Immediate effect of new units is small205 additional studentsImpact after 2018-19 and continuing into the

2020s as elementary students “age” into high school