earnings season webinar

Are You Making the Most Out of Earnings Season?

Mike BellafioreCo-Founder, SMB Capital

Co-Founder, SMB UAuthor, One Good Trade and The PlayBook

GoalsHow good can you be?

Share some of what we teach our traders

Discuss opportunities 4U to tap into our desk

Answer your questions

Have some fun!

One Good Trade“trading classic”

“the bible of prop trading”

Stocks In Play

FB Historic IPO Trade Review

Stocks In PlaySuper Stocks In Play Webinar

News Catalysts

+/- 3 percent on the Open

Increased relative volume

Strategy• Stocks that can cleanly trend

• Stronger and weaker than the market

• Follow the trend until it ends• Reasons2Sell Webinar

Questions?

Trade Examples from this Earnings Season

• Gold

• Solarso FSLR, SPWR

• AAPL

• CRUS

• VXX

Improving your P&L• Where is your money going to come from?

• Big Ideas?

• Theses + Price Confirmation

Sniper TradingWhen you see it…… strike

Supershort: Failure at Key Levelon Open + Held Bid Drops

KMayTicker: CRUS

Date: Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Big Picture

The market has been unusually volatile over the last several days. SPY dropped precipitously with the crash of gold on Monday, but recovered most of its losses yesterday. However, this morning SPY opened below yesterday's trading activity, and spent much of the day trending lower. This move puts SPY back into the 153.7 – 157 price band that occumpied most of March and early April.

3 month SPY.

Big Picture

Today SPY.

Big Picture

ADV: 2.78 million

ATR: 1.02

FS%: 12.34

β: 0.65

Cirrus Logic, Inc., a fabless semiconductor company, develops signal processing integrated circuits (ICs) for audio and energy markets. A major customer for

Cirrus is Apple.

Long-Term Technicals

Long term chart, annotated.

Trade Management

Today stock snapshot, annotated with execution and possible execution details.

Trade Review

Make it Better: Didn't trade with enough size here. Should have been more aggressive when the original 25c buyer dropped, when 19 dropped, and when the last 33c buyer dropped.

Trade Idea

18.50 and 18 were important levels today. I think there is a good opportunity to make a short trade if CRUS pulls into 18.50, or if it spends time below 18 and turns that support level into resistance.

Sector Play: Hold Below Pre-market Low

GDX

VC

4/15/13

Big PictureThe SPY trended down from 158.00-155.50

Intraday FundamentalsMining stocks are taking a bit of a hiding following

China's slowing GDP growth and the sell-off in precious metals.

ATR: 1.16

ADV: 17.1M

SF%: 8%

At Multi-year lows

30.00 was a very clean defined level in the premarket

Trade IdeaGDX seemed to be the best set up in the premarket so

it was the metal stock I wanted to focus on first. It was supporting 30.50 a few times in the premarket as GLD was falling. When it finally dropped I took the opportunity to begin my short position.

Begin short position as GLD is falling and GDX drops 50c support level

Add when holds below 40c

Cover half into 30.00

Add onto short against 10c when begins to hold below premarket support at 30.00

Cover some into trendline break

Add back on when consolidates below previous support at 80c

Cover most when breaks downtrend and approaches the whole

Flat when makes double botom and then new high above 40c

Trade ReviewIt never held under 30.00 long enough for me to really

size up into the position. I also could have easily been much bigger in the pullback to 80c. Overall though good job holding it throughout the move and feeling comfortable shorting in the premarket

SMB Trading Tools Join our SMB community and learn while we share our best trading

ideas. Get SMB Scanner, Stocks In Play, SMB Radar and SMB Real Time for $279* (35% off)

Reading The TapeGain an edge as an intraday trader by learning this important trading

skill - $850

SMB Foundation Remote TrainingFive-week program that will help you develop valuable trading skills

to profit in any market. - $5,400

Email us at trading@smbcap.com or give us a call to 646-845-4265 for more info.

*Offer for first time subscribers and price is valid for the first month.

SMB Foundation Develop the Skills of a Professional Equities Trader

You will learn:

Fundamentals of Trading One Good Trade How to Find Stocks in Play Reading the Tape Risk Management How to Review Your Trading

Enter the coupon code SMBATTENDEE to get 5% off and attend 10 SMB Webinars and enter into a raffle to win a free Foundation Program

Email us at trading@smbcap.com for more info.

Contact

mbellafiore@smbcap.com

@mikebellafiore