dvj insights

2016, DVJ Insights

Unleashing Data excellence

Growth is the most important KPI when determining marketing success for many Cmo’s

How do you find the drivers for growth? What is the best way to influence these drivers? Which data should be used to find this path?

Many of the available tools and methods are only able to solve small pieces of the puzzle

We have developed a stepwise approach that is based upon experience and scientific knowledge

1

2

Determining a measure for all contacts with a brand

Integration of all relevant sources

That is why we advise to make use of the following steps

3 Determine what relationships there are between the sources

Determine how many contacts are needed to be effective

4

Predicting potential effects for the new plan

5

6

Define the audience and find drivers for growth

1

2

Determining a measure for all contacts with a brand

Integration of all relevant sources

Step 1

3 Determine what relationships there are between the sources

Determine how many contacts are needed to be effective

4

Predicting potential effects for the new plan

5

6

Define the audience and find drivers for growth

Buying behavior: Marketers mainly focus on the smaller buying segments

Byron Sharp (2012): “Acquisition is vital for growth and maintenance. Reaching all buyers is vital, especially light, occasional buyers of the brand.”

Storytelling: to unlock drivers and motives of all audiences

• Integration of storytelling and Free associations • We were able to classify people and understand motives

De Pelsmacker & Van Kenhove (2012): “To understand the real motives and drivers we have

to look beyond a standardized set of statement and measures”

• The first step in the research process was to ask people to share a story on the process they follow last time they …

• We did this by asking people to describe their last day out.

Sharing a story

My story is about:

Story Marking

To understand the drivers in the journey we worked with a series of story markers to see which aspects were important for buying a product.

• We asked people to mark the words that represented the crucial stage in their journey.

• This will be compared with the results of the next exercise

Marking of important stages

Understanding drivers for growth by using storytelling

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Based upon the drivers of the category and actual behavior we are able to determine the path to growth

CORE

Brand most used

SWITCH

High usage of category and low usage of

brand

REJECT

Never consumes Brand

POTENTIAL

High usage of category and no usage of brand

MODERATE

Low usage of category and low usage of

brand

The core group are those that state that they often eat Brand

brand. These are loyal to brand.

The switch group are those that eat category (very) often. This group also eats Brand brand

but states that they mostly use other

brands.

The potential group are those that eat category

(very) often but no brand.

The moderate group are those that use little

category and have a low usage of Brand brand

(once a (half) year)

The reject group are those that never use

brand

1

2

Determining a measure for all contacts with a brand

Integration of all relevant sources

Step 2

3 Determine what relationships there are between the sources

Determine how many contacts are needed to be effective

4

Predicting potential effects for the new plan

5

6

Define the audience and find drivers for growth

Integration of all relevant data

Mind:

Tracking research that gives an overview of the brand funnel of the Efteling. Here fore, we used 2.5 years of historic data

Media:

- TV (GRP’s per week) - Radio (GRP’s per week) - Out of home (contacts per period) - Print (contacts per week) - Digital newsletter (contacts per week) - Online search (contacts per period) - Facebook (contacts per week) - Cinema (contacts per period)

Behavior:

- Bookings - Visitors - Online Sales

Intent:

- Facebook Engagement - Website visits:

• Total • Homepage • Park • Accommodation • Tickets

1

2

Determining a measure for all contacts with a brand

Integration of all relevant sources

Step 3

3 Determine what relationships there are between the sources

Determine how many contacts are needed to be effective

4

Predicting potential effects for the new plan

5

6

Define the audience and find drivers for growth

Searching for relationships in the data with the help of “multi attribution modelling”

Effect

Time

Time Lines

Media investments

The KPI’s that play a role in the influence of the number of visitors differs per the region

Visitors park

Website visits

Awareness

Facebook visits

Attitude

Consideration

Preference

Advocacy

Associations

An important question was which KPI had the most impact on the number of visitors

Website Visits

Visitors park

Awareness

Attitude

Consideration

Preference

Advocacy

Associations

Before the shifting of data

After the shifting of data

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 Week 15

Mind Intent Gedrag

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 Week 15

Mind Intent Gedrag

“Lagged Effects” are also taken into account in the time

Creating a very clear view of the customer journey

Visit

Online booking

Orientation on the visit itself

Facebook orientation

Orientation on a day trip

Reminisce

Reminisce

1

2

Determining a measure for all contacts with a brand

Integration of all relevant sources

Step 4

3 Determine what relationships there are between the sources

Determine how many contacts are needed to be effective

4

Predicting potential effects for the new plan

5

6

Define the audience and find drivers for growth

Rps is a new measure that starts with finding all possible contacts

Calculate sum of all contact

… … … …

Reality FACT: Different media contribute in different ways to campaign effects. An exposure to a 60“ ad in the cinema for example, has more impact than a single exposure to display a banner.

Each medium is unique: Not every medium has the same impact- or memorization potential

Each medium is unique: Not every medium has the same impact- or memorization potential

De Pelsmacker, Geuens, & Van den Bergh (2011): “Morgensztern’s beta analysis takes into account that memorization of a message depends on the medium used.”

Media work differently. En even within a medium type there are many different formats

The power of a creation can differ enormously. Keep that in mind

Arguments vs. emotions? Celebrity endorser? Humor? One-sided or two-sided arguments? Angst appeals? Social norm? Likeability? Irritation? Expert? Credibility? Comparison with competition? Heuristics? Mystery ad? Music?

Case study: two leading brands within the same online retail category spend equally as much, but the effects on aided ad recall vary widely

Brand A Brand B

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

W41 W42 W43 W44 W45 W46

Brand A

Brand B

Reality FACT: If people are confronted with advertisements this week, then chances are that they still remember some of it the following week .

Do people have memories: people do not loose their memory on Monday at 00:01

Effect

Time

Time Lines

Media investments

People have memories: Each brand and category has its own unique decay effect

Tellis, 2009: “There are more than 260 estimates of advertising elasticity carried out in numerous studies using a variety of models and data across many countries, product categories, brands, and time periods.”

Consumers have memories: they remember (parts of) previous campaigns.

Rps is a new measure that provides an overview of all the contacts with a brand

Calculate sum of all contact

Weight each media type to the Beta factor

Take format within mediums

into account

Take the force of the medium into

account

Take the decay effect of the week before

along

based on these principles, the media plan is translated into a Rps line

And the relationship and the strength of the relationship with all KPIs is determined

RPS

Website visits Publicity/acquaintanceship

Facebook visits Attitude

Consideration

Preference

Advocacy

1

2

Determining a measure for all contacts with a brand

Integration of all relevant sources

Step 5

3 Determine what relationships there are between the sources

Determine how many contacts are needed to be effective

4

Predicting potential effects for the new plan

5

6

Define the audience and find drivers for growth

Media-input

Determining the minimum number of contacts that are needed to affect a KPI

Calculation

• Per campaign the correlation between media weight and KPIs is calculated.

• After several campaigns it is visible whether the subsequent correlations rise or fall compared to the previous campaign, and when the correlations flatten.

• In this way, the ideal bandwidth of communication effects can be determined.

This bandwidth analysis makes it possible to determine how high the optimal expenditure should be.

Bandwidth

For each KPI we can then determine the amount of contacts that are needed to be effective

Impact of individual media can be measured by KPIs so that clear choices can be made

TV TV Digital newsletter

Digital

newsletter

Print

Online search Radio

Website visits Consideration

1

2

Determining a measure for all contacts with a brand

Integration of all relevant sources

Step 6

3 Determine what relationships there are between the sources

Determine how many contacts are needed to be effective

4

Predicting potential effects for the new plan

5

6

Define the audience and find drivers for growth

Based on the new media plan, the RPS index is determined during the campaign period.

Especially when the creative power of the campaign is known it is possible to see if the media plan creates enough contacts per week.

Adjustments can be made in the planning to increase effectiveness.

The KPI’s can be used to predict and optimize in advance

Adjusted scenario

Current media plan

Summary: Path towards growth

Using data and research is important in achieving growth! However, • We focus too much on our own groups • We use the wrong techniques to understand growth • We have to see all the relevant data • We must choose a clear KPI that represents growth • We need to involve all the media when doing our analyzes and

make them comparable Based on these insights Efteling developed a growth path, launched a new campaign and optimize their media plan.

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