dr. elwynn taylor - what the weather holds

What the Weather Holds for

2013 and Beyond

(Implications for Corn Yield & Price)

Elwynn Taylor

Iowa State University

setaylor@iastate.edu

www.twitter.com/elwynntaylor

•

Likely US yield (4 June 2013) US Corn 147 BPA (9.23 K/ha)

May starts

with snow

Weather

Extremes

Seldom

Benefit

Crops

101F on 14th

flood on 24th•

Age of Risk Management

• Some years: Very Good Crop

• Some years: Very Poor Crop

Drought: Impact & Adaptation

Washington University: a&s magazine Spring 2013

• Above the US Corn Yield Trend

Six Consecutive Years

Why is US corn production up?

• Corn has become profitable.

• No other reasons..

Corn Prices vs. Costs

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

$ p

er

bush

el

Season-average Price Cost per BushelLow yield year Chad E Heart

Change of Crop Demand

• Food (Human or Livestock)

– Food demand increases with population

– Livestock demand increases with wealth

• Fiber ??

• ENERGY DEMAND (Bio-fuel)

– Increases with wealth

– Increases with population

– Increases with Diminished supply of conventional

fuel

•

Bio-Fuel (Utah, 1944)

It took 1/3 of our farm to produce the “fuel” for our

farm equipment. We found it much better to buy

fuel for a tractor, and use the land to produce food.

People are now paying enough for fuel to go back

to growing fuel.

Global Energy Demand is Rising Rapidly Because Energy Consumption and Income are Linked

Why Bio-Fuel ?

• We Like our Energy

• Our hunger for Energy can

influence the Climate of the Planet

• Bio-Energy approaches renewable

in the short term

• Bio-Energy is a “food-fuel” trade-off

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.html

Midwest Precipitation

Has a multi-cyclic nature

May be a “Climate Change” indicator

in that a general increase is

consistent with increased

Atmospheric & Water Temperature

•

A year as extreme as 2012 is seldom

followed by a full return to normal.

There are 2 Kinds of

Drought

• Drought of “Hunger for Food”

• Drought of “Thirst for Water

– Amos 8:11

Sometimes called:

Agricultural and Hydrological drought

Or

Short Term and Long Term drought

•

• The winter pattern still resembles La Nina

Dry

ENSO has a Global Signal

• During years of El Nino

– US Soy & Corn do well

– US & Canada Wheat suffers from Drought

• During years of La Nina

– US Corn at risk

– Canada Wheat usually good

– Canada sometimes floods

Argentina responds to ENSO

much as does US corn & soy

ENSO History 2010- May 2013

• The La Niña began 22 July 2010

• The La Niña ended 21 March 2012

Trans-Canada

• 21 June 2010 ET

Europe now

•

• 501 year record

La Niña

Rolling a “7” or a “6” is a

drought. Corn > $4.00/bu

La N i ña

Iowa State University Extension

70% Chance of

Below Trend Yield

147 $5.53

160

144

162

$4.55

155

$4.85

140

$6.45

176

Dec 2013 price by Wisner 5/14/2013

$= 84.3223+ 0.0029xBPAxBPA – 0.9623xBPA

http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf

Tue: Dec corn $5.44 -- expectation 149BPA

Sea Now, & March 21

March 21

• Age of El Nino: favorable Midwest Yield

• Age of La Nina: Erratic Yield

• Strongest La Nina events.

•

stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4

137

ISMMS001

Soil Moisture History

• 2012: Oct 1 - Nov 19

Summary• Hurricane season expected to be active

• Drought likely to persist/expand in West

• Temperature (High &/or Low) significant

• Climate will likely be increasingly erratic (25 year interval)

Elwynn Taylor

Iowa State University

Climatologist

END

Twitter.com/elwynntaylor