do changing arctic environments need new rules? dr. chanda meek, uaf dept. of political science

DO CHANGING ARCTIC ENVIRONMENTS NEED NEW

RULES?

Dr. Chanda Meek, UAF Dept. of Political Science

WARMING BOUNDARY WATERS

Source: NOAA Arctic Report Card 2013

CHANGE IN TUNDRA GREENNESS

CARIBOU AND REINDEER HERDS CHANGING

SURPRISES: 2013 TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY

SURPRISES: ICE FORECASTING

FROM GOVERNMENT TO GOVERNANCE

THE POWER OF RULES• Rules:• shape behavior• define relationships• enhance trust• help shape expectations

THE DOWNSIDE OF RULES• Can become “sticky”

• Can reinforce unequal power relations

• Can attract and reward organized outside interests

TYPES OF RULES• Slow rules:• culture• “constitutional” rules — rules

about rules• language• shared norms

TYPES OF RULES• Fast “operational” rules:

• agreements• “good neighbor policies”• stipulations• permit conditions

EMERGENCY RULES

TYPES OF RULES• Mid-speed rules

• link fast “operational” rules to shared values

• define important areas/ideas/values• shape human action in the long

term

PLANNING AND COMMUNITY VALUES

WHEN RULES CHANGE• Three theories of why rules are

created and changed:

• change in utility• change in power• change in norms

GOVERNING THE FUTURE• Fast rules lack

• democratic “vetting”• cannot handle long time frames,

large scales, or complex problems

GOVERNING THE FUTURE• Slow rules• may take generations• subject to hard politics• difficult to “steer”

GOVERNING THE FUTURE• Mid-speed rules• do not require redistribution of

power• are ripe for partnerships• can define a “new normal”