digital revolution and social economical impact

DIGITAL REVOLUTION AND SOCIAL ECONOMICAL IMPACT

KOEN DE LEUSBrussels, 25/11/2016

Crowd Sourcing - Brussels 2

What is happening?

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Swamped with black swans

Crowd Sourcing - Brussels

… and losers

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The Elephant Chart

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Source: Branko Milanovic

Crowd Sourcing - Brussels

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

95

115

135

155

175

195

215

Highest Lowest Middle Top-5%Source: Thomson Reuters

+75%

+20%

+90%

It’s getting better…for some

Income evolution US (per quintile)

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Hollowing out of middle class in US …

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… and in the European Union

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Source: Goos, Manning, Salamons (2014)

Change in occupational employment(shares in low, middle and high-wage occupations in 16 EU countries, 1993-2010)

… just like happened during earlier industrial revolutions

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Everything turned out fine eventually

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1913

1918

1923

1928

1933

1938

1943

1948

1953

1958

1963

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

2013

0

5

10

15

20

25 US: Income top-1%, top-0,1% and top-0,01%

Top 1% Top 0,1% Top 0,01%

Source: The World Wealth and Income database

Same old story?

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Jobs at risk

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Also in emerging markets

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Substution versus …

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… increase in wealth and creation of new jobs

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Boy cry wolf?

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US Participation rate: 25-54 year olds

Basic income

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Who will pay?

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Thank you

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DIGITAL REVOLUTION AND SOCIAL ECONOMICAL IMPACT

KOEN DE LEUSBrussels, 25/11/2016