demographic study update for the katonah-lewisboro union free school district

Demographic Study Update for the

Katonah-LewisboroUnion Free

School District

Prepared by

Statistical Forecasting LLC

November 21, 2013

Statistical Forecasting LLC

Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area.

Performed demographic studies for approximately 100 school districts in NY & NJ.

Demographic consultant for the NYC Public Schools since 2006.

Richard S. Grip Ed.D. Executive Director Doctorate from Rutgers University

Graduate School of Education in Educational Statistics and Measurement.

Numerous publications on school demography and presentations nationally.

Testified as an expert witness on school demography in several court cases.

Purpose of the Study

Project grade-by-grade enrollments for 2014-15 through 2023-24 using district historical enrollments, birth data, home sales, community age structure, and new housing starts.

Update to previous study completed in September 2012.

Results from 2012 Report

Year Actual Enrollment

Projected Enrollment (CSR 5-Yr)

% Error CSR (5-Yr)

Projected Enrollment (CSR 6-Yr)

% Error CSR (6-Yr)

2012-13 3,484 3,466 -0.5% 3,464 -0.6%

2013-14 3,374 3,366 -0.2% 3,360 -0.4%

Katonah-Lewisboro School District Sending AreaDemographic Characteristics

91.4% White, 3.5% Asian, 3.9% Hispanic Public school children per household, ages 5-17 =

0.620 Bachelor’s Degree or Higher = 69.3% Median family income = $180,159 6,796 housing units, of which 91.9% are occupied. Median value of owner-occupied unit = $715,400. Nearly 92% of homes are 1-unit (attached or

detached)

District Overview Six schools in the district in a K-5 (4), 6-

8 (1), 9-12 (1) configuration. District’s September 2013 enrollment

was 3,374, which is a loss of 741 students since peak enrollment in 2005-06.

Cohort-Survival Ratio method (CSR) was used to project enrollment five years into the future.

School Locations

Cohort Survival Ratio Method Ratios are calculated for each grade

progression. (Ex. 100 1st graders in 2012-13 become 95 2nd graders in 2013-14 = 0.95)

Survival ratios were computed for the last 20 historical years. Five-year and six-year averages were computed in this analysis and used to project future enrollments.

Historical Enrollment 1994-95 to 2013-14

3,3043,449

3,6563,787

3,9103,987

4,1123,9493,880 3,868

4,1154,1114,048

3,141

4,109 4,041

3,3743,484

3,580

3,773

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

den

ts

Enrollment Change by Year

163

207

131 123

7761 64

6

-95 -96-110

-193

-69-92

-74

-12-2-1

145

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

de

nts

Historical Enrollment by Level

1,3861,437

1,497

1,6281,6631,6841,7091,7491,800

1,8311,9031,928

1,9702,004

2,0142,0161,931

1,8251,745

1,648

1,042

1,0311,000 1,005 1,006 999

929 937 930879 871 858

812737

983

721 744791

833903

1,0361,000

1,1761,1891,212

1,2661,2751,2591,3111,2931,309

1,2731,208

1,153

934 938 993880

822772

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

de

nts

Gr. K-5 Gr. 6-8 Gr. 9-12

First Grade Replacement Negative first grade replacement has

occurred since 2006-07. Number of graduating 12th grade students is

greater than the number of first grade students replacing them in the next year.

The district lost 78 students in 2013-14 due to this phenomenon, as 288 twelfth graders graduated in 2012-13 and were replaced by 210 first grade students.

Historical First Grade Replacement

143

102

150

7789

112

60

3

27

-58

-83-97

-78

-13 -28-16

179

-126

134

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

Year

Nu

mb

er o

f S

tud

ents

Enrollment Change vs. First Grade Replacement

163145

207

131

61 64

-1 -2 6

-92-69

-95

-193

-110

179

143

102

150

89112

60

327

-28

-126

-97-78-74

123

77

-96

-12-13

-58

-83

77

-16

134

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

Year

Nu

mb

er o

f S

tud

ents

Enrollment Change First Grade Replacement

Birth Rates and Birth-to- Kindergarten Survival Ratios

Birth Year Total Number

of Births in Attendance Area

Number of Kindergarten Students Five Years Later

Birth-to- Kindergarten Survival Ratio

2002 219 251 1.146 2003 218 260 1.193 2004 192 262 1.365 2005 176 215 1.222 2006 138 190 1.377 2007 165 189 1.158 2008 152 174 1.145 2009 117 N/A N/A 2010 138 N/A N/A 2011 114 N/A N/A

Births from 2002-2011

114

138

117

152165

138

176

192

218219

0

50

100

150

200

250

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Bir

ths

Age Pyramid – Katonah-Lewisboro Sending Area in 1990

7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0%

Under 5

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Ag

e C

las

se

s

Percent

FemalesMales

Age Pyramid – Katonah-Lewisboro Sending Area in 2000

7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0%

Under 5

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Ag

e C

las

se

s

Percent

Females

Males

Age Pyramid – Katonah-Lewisboro Sending Area (2007-2011 ACS Data)

7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0%

Under 5

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Ag

e C

las

se

s

Percent

Females

Males

Age Pyramid – Westchester County2012

7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0%

Under 5

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Ag

e C

las

se

s

Percent

Females

Males

Housing Growth

Potential for 21 SF homes (Bailey Hall) in Katonah. 18 public school children are projected from the

development. 14 building permits were issued from 2008-2013 in

Bedford in the area served by the district. Potential for 100 homes (46 are multi-family units) in

Lewisboro. 61 public school children are projected from the

developments in Lewisboro. 20 COs were issued from 2008-2013 in Lewisboro. No potential developments in North Salem or Pound

Ridge in areas served by the district.

Home Sales

267275

219

168

27

197

152

131

167

250

299318

297283

26

181

141155

242 240257

229

272260

187

219

147

115

11611131620

313239464640

2741

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

de

nts

Total Single-Family Condos

Vacant Housing

If occupancy increases to 2000 levels (94.5%), 179 more units would be occupied.

Using student yield of 0.620, this would result in additional 111 schoolchildren.

Increase of 8.5 children per grade in district. Increase of 2.1 children per grade per

elementary building in district.

K-12 Enrollment Projections 2014-15 to 2023-24

2,1722,234

2,3402,4462,527

3,1893,050

2,9122,783

2,635

2,920

2,1812,245

2,3542,463

2,542

2,794

3,0563,192

2,650

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

de

nts

CSR 5-Yr. CSR 6-Yr.

Projected First Grade Replacement

-86 -90-89-94

-50

-92-91

-64

-126-120

-143-137

-54

-97-95

-67

-129-124

-144-137

-170

-150

-130

-110

-90

-70

-50

-30

-10 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

de

nts

CSR 5-yr. CSR 6-yr.

Enrollment Projections by Grade Configuration

Grade Level

Projected Enrollment in 2018-19

Five-Year Change

Projected Enrollment in 2023-24

Ten-Year Change

K-5 1,004-1,009

377-382 (Loss)

983-986 400-403 (Loss)

6-8 616-623 189-196 (Loss)

486-487 325-326 (Loss)

9-12 1,010-1,023

153-166 (Loss)

699-712 464-477 (Loss)

Elementary School Projections

School 2013-14 2018-19 5-Year

Change 2023-24

10-Year Change

Increase Miller 356 276 -80 267 -89

Katonah 372 263 -109 261 -111

Lewisboro 350 278 -72 274 -76

Meadow Pond 308 186 -122 187 -121

Full-Day Kindergarten

Projections were also computed for the 10-year period assuming full-day kindergarten.

Little difference between projections with half-day kindergarten and full-day.

With full-day kindergarten, additional 17-29 children district-wide by 2018-19 and 27-44 by 2023-24.

Summary

Enrollment is projected to be 2,635-2,650 students in the 2018-19 school year, a loss of 724-739 students from the 2013-14 enrollment of 3,374 students.

At the end of 10 years, enrollment is projected to be 2,172-2,181 which would be a loss of 1,193-1,202 students