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Demographic Profile of

Central Texas

Chris Schreck,

Director of Regional Planning & Services,

Capital Area Council of Governments

November 8, 2018

Community Advancement Network

Expanding Housing Opportunities

The 5-County

Austin MSA

Population Growth in the Austin-RR MSA

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

1,716,289 1,780,610 1,834,566 1,883,528 1,942,255 2,000,784 2,060,558 2,115,827

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Since 2010, the Austin-RR MSA has grown by 399,538 people.

For reference:

• The entire population of the Austin MSA in 1970 was 398,000.

• The current population of the Tallahassee, FL Metro Area is 382,627.

• The current population of the city of Minneapolis is 422,326.

Population Growth in the Austin-RR MSA

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

How is population distributed throughout the region?

84,761 42,338

214,485

1,226,698

547,545

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Bastrop Caldwell Hays Travis Williamson

Population by MSA County (2017)

Population Growth in the Austin-RR MSA

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Share of Annual Population Growth in the Austin-RR MSA

City of Austin Travis County Williamson Hays Bastrop Caldwell

Population Growth in the Austin-RR MSA

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

What’s driving that population growth ?

Natural Increase121,257

Domestic Migration 224,351

International Migration

49,311

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Components of Population Change in the Austin-RR MSA (2010-2017)

In-Migration to the Austin-RR MSA (15-16)Where are all these people coming from?

Source: IRS SOI Migration Data

In-Migration to the Austin-RR MSA (15-16)Where are all these people coming from?

Source: IRS SOI Migration Data

In-Migration to the Austin-RR MSA (15-16)

• Most common origin counties for folks moving to the Austin-

RR MSA:

Origin County Origin State Total In-Migration (15-16)

Harris County TX 3,292

Bexar County TX 2,251

Miami-Dade County FL 2,217

Los Angeles County CA 1,791

Dallas County TX 1,779

Broward County FL 1,278

Cook County IL 1,232

Orange County CA 1,108

Tarrant County TX 1,036

Source: IRS SOI Migration Data

Change in Population by Age

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

Under 15 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 and over

Change in Austin-RR MSA Population by Age Cohort (2010-2017)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Under 15 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 and over

Percentage Change in Austin-RR MSA Population by Age Cohort (2010-2017)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

The Economy…

Source: EMSI

$88,430,920,438

$140,170,511,961

$-

$20,000,000,000

$40,000,000,000

$60,000,000,000

$80,000,000,000

$100,000,000,000

$120,000,000,000

$140,000,000,000

$160,000,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Austin -RR MSA Gross Regional Product

The Texas Miracle…

Source: EMSI

Austin,58.5%

Dallas, 43.4%

Houston, 30.0%

San Antonio,46.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Percentage Change in Gross Regional Product by Texas Metro

Austin Dallas Houston San Antonio

Employment Growth

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

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Year Over Year Percentage Change in Employment in the Austin-RR MSA

I started talking about slowing

job growth here… which

immediately prompted 6

straight months of accelerating

job growth.

Unemployment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Unemployment Rate in the Austin-RR MSA

Rate of employment growth

begins slowing right about

here.

High Growth Occupations

Source: EMSI, MIT Living Wage Calculator

Occupation

2010 - 2017

Employment

Change

Median Hourly

EarningsTypical Entry Level Education

Combined Food Preparation and Serving

Workers, Including Fast Food12,151 $10.07 No formal educational credential

Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 8,205 $22.12 High school diploma or equivalent

Customer Service Representatives 8,187 $15.55 High school diploma or equivalent

Software Developers, Applications 7,099 $51.29 Bachelor's degree

Office Clerks, General 6,069 $16.73 High school diploma or equivalent

Retail Salespersons 5,811 $11.56 No formal educational credential

Secretaries and Administrative Assistants,

Except Legal, Medical, and Executive5,725 $16.89 High school diploma or equivalent

Waiters and Waitresses 5,476 $9.73 No formal educational credential

General and Operations Managers 4,931 $50.37 Bachelor's degree

Personal Care Aides 4,783 $9.49 High school diploma or equivalent

Which occupations have grown the most in the Austin-RR MSA since 2010?

In Travis County, the current living wage for a single adult is $11.87. For an adult with one child, it is $24.62.

So, What Does All This Mean for Housing?

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Zillow

Since 2000, home values in Travis County have grown nearly twice as fast as incomes

104.4%

56.7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Change in Home Values and Median Household Incomes in Travis County

Zillow Home Value Index Median HH Inc

Housing in the Austin-RR MSA

Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition

What wage rate do you need to make in order to afford a rental unit in the Austin-RR MSA?

Rental TypeWage Required

(Texas)

Wage Required

(Austin-RR MSA)

Zero Bedroom $13.52$16.54

($34,400/yr)

One Bedroom $15.62$19.67

($40,900/yr)

Two Bedroom $19.32$24.06

($50,000/yr)

Three Bedroom $26.10$32.29

($67,200/yr)

Four Bedroom $32.31$38.81

($80,700/yr)

Housing in the Austin-RR MSA

If you make minimum wage, how many hours per week must you work to afford a rental unit in

the Austin-RR MSA?

Rental TypeHours Required

(Texas)

Hours Required

(Austin-RR MSA)

Zero Bedroom 75 91

One Bedroom 86 109

Two Bedroom 107 133

Three Bedroom 144 178

Four Bedroom 178 214

For reference, there are 168 total hours in a week.

Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition

Housing and Transportation

Most households face a difficult trade-off with respect to housing and transportation

costs…

• Region-wide, the typical household in the Austin-RR MSA spends 50% of their

income on combined housing and transportation costs.

• The average monthly housing cost for households is $1,502. The average monthly

transportation cost for households is $1,123.

• For a moderate-income household ($50,750 per year), average housing and

transportation costs amount to 58% of monthly income.

Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology

Thanks!Any questions?

Chris SchreckDirector of Regional Planning and Services

Capital Area Council of Governments

Cschreck@capcog.org

512-916-6183