delphi method
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- 1.DELPHI METHOD
Muruli N.
MLISc
University of Mysore
Mysore.
2. INTRODUCTION:
The Delphi method is a structured communicationtechnique,
originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting
method which relies on a panel of experts.
The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each
round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts
forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they
provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to
revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other
members of their panel.
It is believed that during this process the range of the answers
will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct"
answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop
criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus,
stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final
rounds determine the results
3. Delphi method have been designed for normative and explorative
use, particularly in the area of social policy and public health.In
Europe, more recent web-based experiments have used the Delphi
method as a communication technique for interactive decision-making
and e-democracy.
Mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE)
Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from
a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from
unstructured groups.This has been indicated with the term
"collective intelligence". The technique can also be adapted for
use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or
Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE).
4. Delphi defined as.
An organized method for collecting views and information pertaining
to a specific area;
A method that allows dialogue between geographically separated
experts while serving an effective means for learning;
Gathering a group of experts to forecast events and assess complex
issues;
Collective human intelligence;
A process of exploring assessing and evaluating.
5. HISTORY:
The name "Delphi" derives from the Oracle of Delphi
The Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the Cold War to
forecast the impact of technology on warfare.
In 1944, General Henry H. Arnold ordered the creation of the report
for the U.S. Army Air Corps on the future technological
capabilities that might be used by the military.
Different approaches were tried, but the shortcomings of
traditional forecasting methods, such as theoretical approach,
quantitative models or trend extrapolation, in areas where precise
scientific laws have not been established yet, quickly became
apparent.
To cross these shortcomings, the Delphi method was developed by
Project RAND during the 1950-1960s (1959) by Olaf Helmet, Norman
Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher.
6. Key characteristics of the Delphi method
The following key characteristics of the Delphi method help the
participants to focus on the issues at hand and separate Delphi
from other methodologies:
Structuring of information flow
The initial contributions from the experts are collected in the
form of answers to questionnaires and their comments to these
answers. The panel director controls the interactions among the
participants by processing the information and filtering out
irrelevant content. This avoids the negative effects of
face-to-face panel discussions and solves the usual problems of
group dynamics.
7. Regular feedback
Participants comment on their own forecasts, the responses of
others and on the progress of the panel as a whole. At any moment
they can revise their earlier statements. While in regular group
meetings participants tend to stick to previously stated opinions
and often conform too much to group leader, the Delphi method
prevents it.
Anonymity of the participants
Usually all participants remain anonymous. Their identity is not
revealed, even after the completion of the final report. This
prevents the authority, personality, or reputation of some
participants from dominating others in the process. Arguably, it
also frees participants (to some extent) from their personal
biases, minimizes the "bandwagon effect" or "halo effect", allows
free expression of opinions, encourages open critique, and
facilitates admission of errors when revising earlier
judgments.
8. Role of the facilitator
The person coordinating the Delphi method can be known as a
facilitator, and facilitates the responses of their panel of
experts, who are selected for a reason, usually that they hold
knowledge on an opinion or view. The facilitator sends out
questionnaires, surveys etc. and if the panel of experts accept,
they follow instructions and present their views. Responses are
collected and analyzed, then common and conflicting viewpoints are
identified. If consensus is not reached, the process continues
through thesis and antithesis, to gradually work towards synthesis,
and building consensus.
9. Applications of the Delphi method
First applications of the Delphi method were in the field of
science and technology forecasting. The objective of the method was
to combine expert opinions on likelihood and expected development
time, of the particular technology, in a single indicator.
Later the Delphi method was applied in other areas, especially
those related to public policy issues, such as economic trends,
health and education. It was also applied successfully and with
high accuracy in business forecasting.
The Delphi method has also been used as a tool to implement
multi-stakeholder approaches for participative policy-making in
developing countries.
10. Delphi..when it is appropriate ?
In situations where there is no clear-cut resolution of a given
policy issue;
When time & cost constraints make frequent face-to-face
meetings difficult to arrange.
When the heterogeneity of the participants must be preserved and
anonymity assured.
Use it to explore an issue with a distributed group of
people.
Use it move a group of people towards consensus.
11. HOW TO USE IT:
Define the problem
Give everyone the problem
Collate the responses
Give everyone the collection
Repeat as necessary
12. Define the problem:
Identify the problem that you want to work on, writing it down in a
clear way that is easy to understand. This can be in various forms
, form a questionnaire to a broad and open question.
You can work on one problem and you can work on several problems at
once. The constraint is usually the bandwidth and expertise of the
people in the Delphi group.
Give everyone the problem:
Recruit people to the Delphi group. This includes anyone who has
been selected to contribute thinking on this project. There is
seldom a meeting needed for Delphi work, making it ideal for
virtual teams.
Delphi thinking can be done with a small group and it can be done
with hundreds of people. Around 20 people is fairly common
size
Send the problem or problems to everyone who is in the group and
ask them respond, You will have to handle a lot of feedback, so
asking for short bullet-points will make things much easier to deal
with than rambling text.
13. Collate the responses:
Take the responses that people send back to you and collate these
into a single anonyms list of sets of list.
Make this as easy as possible for the people to read when you send
it back out again, but be aware of casing inappropriate bias. For
example you may group responsesinto appropriate headings, but with
the caution that this might presuppose particular thinking.
On the other hand, if you are seeking creative ideas you may
deliberately mix up the answers.
Give everyone the collation:
Send the collation back out to everyone with the request to score
each item on a given scale.You may also allow them to add further
items as appropriate.
Remember to include the original problem at the top of the page,
along with instructions on what to do. You can also make responding
easier by putting the items in a table with space for the
score.
14. Repeat as necessary:
The process may now be repeated as many times as is deemed
appropriate. If your are seeking consensus and there was a wide
range of responses, then this may require several iterations. In
particular at least a second round to see how others have scored
can be very useful.
15. Advantages..
Opportunities for large number of people to participate;
Focus is on ideas rather than individuals;
Anonymity for participants which make contributions of ideas a safe
activity;
Opportunities for participants to reconsider their opinions;
Allows for identification of priorities.
16. Limitations
Large amount of time to conduct several rounds;
The complexity of data analysis;
The difficulty of maintaining participant enthusiasm throughout
process;
The problem of keeping statements value free and clearly
defined;
Self reporting data is subject to respondents biases and
memories;
17. Conti
The bandwagon effect of a majority opinion;
The power of persuasion or prestigious individuals to shape group
opinion;
The vulnerability of group dynamics to manipulation;
The unwillingness of individuals to abandon publicly stated
positions.
18. During last ten years, the Delphi method was used more often
especially for national science and technology foresight. Some
modifications and methodological improvements have been made, mean
while. Nevertheless, one has to be aware of the strengths and
weakness of the method so that it cannot be applied in every
case.
Delphi method is better to use as additional method to other
research methods.
19. References...
Adler, M. & Ziglio, E. (Eds.) (1996).Gazing into the Oracle:The
Delphi Method and its Application to Social Policy and Public
Health.Jessica Kingsley Publishers.
Bramante, A.C. (1988).Establishing a Basis for the Development of
an Undergraduate Curriculum in Recreation and Leisure Studies in
Brazil:A Delphi Approach.A thesis submitted for partial fulfillment
for Ph.D. degree. Pennsylvania State University.
Raskin, M.S. (1994).The Delphi Study in Field Instruction
Revisited:Expert Consensus on Issues and Research Priorities.
Journal of Social Work Education. V30 n1 pp 75-89.
20. ANY QUESTIONS
21. THANK YOU
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