delphi method in foresight
TRANSCRIPT
OCT 2014
Aliasghar Abbasi
Forecasting Methods
Delphi MethodReal-Time Delphi
Mohsen Bahrami
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I. History of the Methods• Conventional Delphi• Real-Time Delphi
II. Description of the methods
IV. Strengths and Weaknesses of the Methods
Table of Contents
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The modern renaissance of futures research began with the Delphi technique at RAND in early 1960s.
The RAND researchers explored the use of expert panels to address forecasting issues.
History Conventional Delphi
I never took a day off in my twenties. Not one.- Bill Gates
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The Delphi method was designed to encourage a true debate, independent of personalities.
First published Delphi study: Report on a Long-Range Forecast82 panelists participated.
History Conventional Delphi
I never took a day off in my twenties. Not one.- Bill Gates
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History Conventional Delphi
I never took a day off in my twenties. Not one.- Bill Gates
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Developed by Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) in 2004.
The object was to invent a technique by which a commander could rapidly collect and synthesize opinions of field personnel, using Delphi, to help him reach a decision.
History Real-Time Delphi
The way to get started is quit talking and start doing.- Walt Disney
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Description of the Method
Section 2Conventional Delphi
Suppose a forecast for the date by which a manned Mars landing would occur.
The way to get started is quit talking and start doing.- Walt Disney
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Description of the Method
Section 2Conventional Delphi
The questions are refined by the researchers and pursued through a number of sequential questionnaires.
The greatness of a nation and its moral progress can be judged by the way its animals are treated-Gandhi
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Description of the Method
Section 2Real-Time Delphi
An on-screen form presents a series of questions to each participant, and for each.
There is only one round in Real-Time Delphi.The greatness of a nation and its moral progress can be judged by the way its animals are treated
-Gandhi
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Strengths• Ability to explore issues that require judgment
Strengths and Weaknesses of the Method
Section 3Conventional Delphi
Weaknesses• Which questions can be asked to get the best result• Time consuming, expensive
Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life-Confucius
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Strengths• Speed, flexibility, lower costs• Centralization of a data bank of questions and responses
Strengths and Weaknesses of the Method
Section 3Real-Time Delphi
Weaknesses• Its failure to attract most of its respondents back for re-estimation• How to motivate experts in serious argumentation
Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life-Confucius
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