data science for natural capital investment the economic ... · data science for natural capital...

Gretchen C. DailyStanford University

Data Science for Natural Capital Investment The Economic & National Security Case

What is natural capital?

What is natural capital?

Earth’s lands, waters, and variety of life

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Natural capital is being rapidly depleted

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Scarcity confers value

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Values of natural capital?

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Recreation

Urban

Cooling

Flood

Control

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Mental

Health

Coastal

Protection

Food

Production

Social

Benefits

Clean

Water

Recreation

Urban

Cooling

Flood

Control

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Mental

Health

Coastal

Protection

Food

Production

Social

Benefits

Clean

Water

Recreation

Urban

Cooling

Flood

Control

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Mental

Health

Coastal

Protection

Food

Production

Social

Benefits

Clean

Water

185 countries

Development Planning

Securing Freshwater

Livable Cities

Private Sector Standards

Resilient Coasts

High-Leverage Demonstrations

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Mainstreaming the Values of Nature

Development Planning

Securing Freshwater

Livable Cities

Private Sector Standards

Resilient Coasts

High-Leverage Demonstrations

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Mainstreaming the Values of Nature

Latin America

China

Water Security for Cities

WATER

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Water Security for Cities

$$

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Targeting Investments

Which activities?

Where in the watershed?

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Investment Portfolio

Cauca Valley, Colombia

Investment Portfolio

Cauca Valley

Colombia

Tuluá

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Investment Portfolio

Cauca Valley, Colombia

Investment PortfolioTuluá

Tuluá19

What is the return on investment?What is the ROI?

Total Budget ($ Millions)10 25

Wate

r Q

uali

ty (

%)

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A standardized

approach

• Eco-hydrology

• Financing

• Governance

• Monitoring

Scaling up to 40+

funds now

Testing in Africa

Water Security for Cities

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Development Planning

Securing Freshwater

Livable Cities

Private Sector Standards

Resilient Coasts

High-Leverage Demonstrations

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Mainstreaming the Values of Nature

Latin America

China

National Development & Security

The Ecological Civilization

of the 21st Century

“Clear waters and lush mountains are gold and silver.

We will not trade them for gold or silver.”

National Development & Security

The Ecological Civilization

of the 21st Century

National Development & Security

The Ecological Civilization

of the 21st Century

1. Where and how much to protect?

2. How to secure nature and livelihoods?

3. How to move beyond GDP?

Using InVEST ~ 49% of land zoned for natural capital

flood control

biodiversity

sandstorm control

water purification

water supply & flood control

200 M people being paid to restore natural capital

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200 M people being paid to restore natural capital

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Using InVEST

NEW SYSTEM OF GREEN FINANCE

Gross Ecosystem Product

The Ecological Civilization

of the 21st Century

GEP – the total value of ecosystem goods &

services supplied annually

- China State Council, March 2014

National Development & Security

Belt and Road Initiative

Yi dai yi lu

• 21st Century Silk Road (overland & maritime)

• USD 1 Trillion in Infrastructure

• ~ 68 countries, 65% world population

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Natural Capital –Data Science for Development

2009-2013 – Create & test first InVEST models

2013-2017 – Refine through powerful demonstrations

Coastal climate resilience to storms & sea-level rise

Sustainable supply chains

Disease risk

Water security for energy, agriculture, cities

…

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Natural Capital –Data Science for Development

2009-2013 – Create & test first InVEST models

2013-2017 – Refine through powerful demonstrations

Coastal climate resilience to storms & sea-level rise

Sustainable supply chains

Disease risk

Water security for energy, agriculture, cities

2018- – Standardize in policy, finance, and

management globally

National Development & Security

The Ecological Civilization

of the 21st Century

In China, NatCap is building:1. System of natural capital accounts2. System of conservation & restoration investments3. System of green finance

a. GEPb. NDRC training in green growth & policy guide bookc. Across cities, the nation – and the BRI

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Food production

SYSTEM OF NATURAL CAPITAL ACCOUNTS

Using InVEST

SYSTEM OF NATURAL CAPITAL ACCOUNTS

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Carbon sequestration

Using InVEST

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Sand storm prevention

SYSTEM OF NATURAL CAPITAL ACCOUNTS

Using InVEST

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Water supply

SYSTEM OF NATURAL CAPITAL ACCOUNTS

Using InVEST

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FINANCING NEW NATIONAL PARK SYSTEM

Using InVEST

Existing reserves

New nature reserves

New ES reserves

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Co-Developing Urban InVEST

SUSTAINABLE LIVABLE CITIES

Starting with:

Beijing

Guangzhou

Shanghai

Shenzhen

Dalian

San Francisco Bay Area

Minneapolis / St Paul