counting crime methods for counting crime? current crime numbers/trends explaining the crime drop 1

Counting Crime

Methods for Counting Crime?

Current Crime Numbers/Trends

Explaining the Crime Drop

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Methods of Measuring CrimeMethods of Measuring Crime

Uniform Crime Reports

Self- Report Surveys

Victim Surveys

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Uniform Crime ReportsUniform Crime Reports

Based on Crimes Reported to the Police

Based on a population unit of 100,000 people

Divided into two representativecategories: Indexed and non-Indexed

Reported for U.S., Cities, and SMSA’s

Crimes known / Arrest = Clearance Rate

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Uniform Crime Reports

• Part I “Index” Crimes– Criminal Homicide– Forcible Rape– Robbery– Aggravated assault– Burglary– Larceny/theft– Motor vehicle theft– Arson

• Part II Crimes– All others except traffic

Violent Crime

Non-violentCrime

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Criticisms and Limitations of the UCR

Criticisms and Limitations of the UCR

Cannot capture the “dark figure” of crime

Methodological Hiccups

• Counting Rule

• Reporting Practices

• Attempted vs. Completed Crimes

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The Future of the Uniform Crime Reports

• National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS)

• Maintained by the F.B.I.• Twenty-two crime categories• More information on each crime in each

category• Data compiled based on incidents, not

arrests.

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Self-Report SurveysSelf-Report Surveys

Participants (usually juveniles) reveal information about their violations of the law

Advantages– Get at “Dark Figure of Crime”– “Victimless Crimes”– Compare to “official data”– Measure theoretical concepts and connect

with criminal behavior

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Self-Report Surveys

• Disadvantages–May underestimate “chronic

offenders”–People Can Lie–Survey Methodology Problems

• Seriousness of Offense

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National Crime Victimization

Survey

1. Asks victims about their encounters with criminals2. Nationally representative sample3. May also describe people most at risk 4. Limitations:

Little information about offendersCannot assess some crimesLimitations of Survey Research

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REVIEW

• UCR– Aggregate Data (see trends), Crimes known

to police• Self-report

– Individual level data, links offender characteristics to criminal offending

• NCVS– Aggregate Data (see trends), victimizations

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Crime Trends and Correlates of Crime

Crime Trends and Correlates of Crime

• Crime Trends– Is crime increasing, decreasing or stable?– Why?

• Correlates of Crime– What factors are related to crime?– Geographic location, Age, Race, Gender,

Social Class?

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Crime Trends

• UCR and NCVS data reveal a steady decrease in violent crime since the mid 1990s– The decrease is being driven by a sharp

decline in violent crime among juveniles.

• NCVS indicates a long term trend of decreasing property crime– Some difference with UCR data

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Duluth Violent Crime 1986-2000

Duluth Violent Crime 1986-2010

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MN vs. National Violent Crime (per 100,000 citizens)

Homicide Robbery Rape0

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40

60

80

100

120

140

MNU.S.

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Explaining Crime TrendsExplaining Crime Trends

–The usual suspects• Age Composition • The Economy• Social malaise• Guns—Availability • Justice Policy—Police or Prisons

–Reality? Difficult to predict trends

The Crime Drop (1990s-present)

• Again, think young males in inner city areas– Decline of the “Crack Cocaine” wars– The “blunt” era

• Change in inner city culture

– Mass incarceration – Freakonomics: Was it Abortion?

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Correlates of Crime

• Demographics– Age– Sex– Race

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GENDER AND CRIME

• UCR, NCVS, and SR data all indicate that females are more likely than males to commit criminal acts– Socialization?– Biological differences?– Feminist explanations

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RACE AND CRIME• SR weak if any relationship• Official data strong relationship• Is relationship due to bias?

• How police patrol and interact with minorities• Disparity in how CJS processes minorities?

• NCVS data confirms some “true” race-crime relationship. Why does race predict crime?

• Relationship to class, neighborhood, culture

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The Age-Crime Curve

Age and Crime

• Crime is “young” persons game• HOWEVER

– There is a group of “chronic” offenders that persist in crime after adulthood

– The “Chronic” 6%

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Continuity of CrimeContinuity of Crime

Cohort studies clearly show that most chronic juvenile offenders continue their law-violating careers as adults.

Cohort studies clearly show that most chronic juvenile offenders continue their law-violating careers as adults.

Then and ………….. NOW Then and ………….. NOW

Crime Victimization

• Criminals and victims tend to look the same demographically – Most crime is intraracial – Victimization for most crimes most likely

among• Young• Male• Urban

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What is counted counts

• We have no “UCR” mechanism to gauge white collar crime– How to assess insider trading, environmental

crimes, corporate crime? • Most large corporate crime prosecutions in in a

settlement

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