counting crime methods for counting crime? current crime numbers/trends explaining the crime drop 1
Post on 19-Dec-2015
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Counting Crime
Methods for Counting Crime?
Current Crime Numbers/Trends
Explaining the Crime Drop
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Methods of Measuring CrimeMethods of Measuring Crime
Uniform Crime Reports
Self- Report Surveys
Victim Surveys
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Uniform Crime ReportsUniform Crime Reports
Based on Crimes Reported to the Police
Based on a population unit of 100,000 people
Divided into two representativecategories: Indexed and non-Indexed
Reported for U.S., Cities, and SMSA’s
Crimes known / Arrest = Clearance Rate
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Uniform Crime Reports
• Part I “Index” Crimes– Criminal Homicide– Forcible Rape– Robbery– Aggravated assault– Burglary– Larceny/theft– Motor vehicle theft– Arson
• Part II Crimes– All others except traffic
Violent Crime
Non-violentCrime
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Criticisms and Limitations of the UCR
Criticisms and Limitations of the UCR
Cannot capture the “dark figure” of crime
Methodological Hiccups
• Counting Rule
• Reporting Practices
• Attempted vs. Completed Crimes
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The Future of the Uniform Crime Reports
• National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS)
• Maintained by the F.B.I.• Twenty-two crime categories• More information on each crime in each
category• Data compiled based on incidents, not
arrests.
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Self-Report SurveysSelf-Report Surveys
Participants (usually juveniles) reveal information about their violations of the law
Advantages– Get at “Dark Figure of Crime”– “Victimless Crimes”– Compare to “official data”– Measure theoretical concepts and connect
with criminal behavior
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Self-Report Surveys
• Disadvantages–May underestimate “chronic
offenders”–People Can Lie–Survey Methodology Problems
• Seriousness of Offense
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National Crime Victimization
Survey
1. Asks victims about their encounters with criminals2. Nationally representative sample3. May also describe people most at risk 4. Limitations:
Little information about offendersCannot assess some crimesLimitations of Survey Research
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REVIEW
• UCR– Aggregate Data (see trends), Crimes known
to police• Self-report
– Individual level data, links offender characteristics to criminal offending
• NCVS– Aggregate Data (see trends), victimizations
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Crime Trends and Correlates of Crime
Crime Trends and Correlates of Crime
• Crime Trends– Is crime increasing, decreasing or stable?– Why?
• Correlates of Crime– What factors are related to crime?– Geographic location, Age, Race, Gender,
Social Class?
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Crime Trends
• UCR and NCVS data reveal a steady decrease in violent crime since the mid 1990s– The decrease is being driven by a sharp
decline in violent crime among juveniles.
• NCVS indicates a long term trend of decreasing property crime– Some difference with UCR data
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Duluth Violent Crime 1986-2000
Duluth Violent Crime 1986-2010
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MN vs. National Violent Crime (per 100,000 citizens)
Homicide Robbery Rape0
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40
60
80
100
120
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MNU.S.
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Explaining Crime TrendsExplaining Crime Trends
–The usual suspects• Age Composition • The Economy• Social malaise• Guns—Availability • Justice Policy—Police or Prisons
–Reality? Difficult to predict trends
The Crime Drop (1990s-present)
• Again, think young males in inner city areas– Decline of the “Crack Cocaine” wars– The “blunt” era
• Change in inner city culture
– Mass incarceration – Freakonomics: Was it Abortion?
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Correlates of Crime
• Demographics– Age– Sex– Race
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GENDER AND CRIME
• UCR, NCVS, and SR data all indicate that females are more likely than males to commit criminal acts– Socialization?– Biological differences?– Feminist explanations
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RACE AND CRIME• SR weak if any relationship• Official data strong relationship• Is relationship due to bias?
• How police patrol and interact with minorities• Disparity in how CJS processes minorities?
• NCVS data confirms some “true” race-crime relationship. Why does race predict crime?
• Relationship to class, neighborhood, culture
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The Age-Crime Curve
Age and Crime
• Crime is “young” persons game• HOWEVER
– There is a group of “chronic” offenders that persist in crime after adulthood
– The “Chronic” 6%
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Continuity of CrimeContinuity of Crime
Cohort studies clearly show that most chronic juvenile offenders continue their law-violating careers as adults.
Cohort studies clearly show that most chronic juvenile offenders continue their law-violating careers as adults.
Then and ………….. NOW Then and ………….. NOW
Crime Victimization
• Criminals and victims tend to look the same demographically – Most crime is intraracial – Victimization for most crimes most likely
among• Young• Male• Urban
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What is counted counts
• We have no “UCR” mechanism to gauge white collar crime– How to assess insider trading, environmental
crimes, corporate crime? • Most large corporate crime prosecutions in in a
settlement
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