cost and potential of renewable energy in the alps while … leduc... · 2016. 8. 31. · sylvain...
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Cost and potential of renewable
energy in the Alps while protecting
ecosystems services
Sylvain Leduc(1), Florian Kraxner(1), Sennai Mesfun(2),
Hernán Serrano León(1), Giulia Geregnani(3),
Georg Kindermann(1), Sabine Fuss (1,4), Annika Marxen(4,5),
Chris Walzer(6)
(1) Ecosystems Services and Management Program, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
(2) Luleå University of Technology, Sweden
(3) EURAC - European Academy of Bozen/Bolzano, Italy
(4) Working Group on Sustainable Resource Management and Global Change, Mercator
Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin, Germany
(5) Technical University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
(6) Research Institute of Wildlife Ecology, University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna, Austria
Swedish Association for Energy Economics Conference 2016
Luleå, Sweden, 23 August 2016
Outline
• Background
• Objective
• Methodology
• Results
• Online-tool
• Conclusion
2
Background
3
• Renewable energy (RE): EU climate change policy (2009/28/EC), nuclear phase-out
• Alpine Convention’s Energy Protocol: Alpine region to make a long-term contribution to
meeting Europe’s energy needs (EC 2005, p. 37)
• Concern: ESS often compete with RE for productive sites important tradeoffs to be
analyzed to maintain ES functions and services under increasing RE demand and other
pressures.
• Contributions:
Detailed spatial analysis of renewable energy solutions and tradeoffs in in multifunctional
landscapes
Quantification and visualization of ecological-economic tradeoffs without making assumptions on
weights and preferences and judgments about valuation
Support decision-makers in forming strategies offering robustness across uncertainties
Objective
To identify
the potential and cost of production
of renewable energy (RE) in the Alps
in regards with the protection
of the ecosystems services (ESS)
4
5
Forest resources
Crop residuals
Algae
MSW
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Biofuel
Heat
Power
Power to liquid/gas
Biogas
Fertilizers
Biochar
Co-firing
Ecosystem services
BECCS Geothermal
The BeWhere Umbrella
BeWhere Model
6
Reference
system
Demand
New bioenergy
plants
Existing
industries
Biomass
Heat
& power
Transport fuel
Fossil fuel
Forest
industries
Biomass
import
Sawmill
residuals
Domestic
biomass
Biofuel
Import
CHP
Optional flows
Existing flows
Input Data
• Distribution
– Road, train network
– Power lines
– Power stations
• Costs and emissions
– Transport
– Distribution
– Plant setup and OM
• Production sites
– Existing infrastructure
– Techno-economic param.
• Fossil fuel
– Power/heat price
– Fossil fuel use
• Protected areas
BeWhere answers…
(1)Number
(2)Technologies
(3)Size
(4)Locations
31/08/2016 8
Costs
Emission avoided
Direct emissions
Economic potential
Trades
Policy tool
• G4M estimates the impact of forestry activities on carbon sequestration and supply of biomass in the Alps (258,000 km2 total area, 115,000 km2 forest).
• Forests managed to maximize two ecosystem values through changing the rotation period:
S1: Maximization of carbon stock in forests.
S2: Maximization of biomass production.
tC/ha
Ecosystem trade-offs of forest areas
1: Carbon sequestration scenario (stock)
2: Biomass production scenario (stock) tC/ha
Source: G4M www.iiasa.ac.at/g4m
S1: Carbon
sequestration
S2: Biomass
production
Harvest potential
Mt C /year
11 23
Carbon stock
Mt C
1,057
577
Source: BeWhere www.iiasa.ac.at/Bewhere
S2: Biomass production scenario (increment)
Economic bioenergy potential
BeWhere estimates the optimal allocation of bioenergy production plants and associated harvesting intensity.
• Bioenergy is competing with other energy production types (i.e. costs of fossil fuels).
• Economic supply: 14 TWh (heat & electricity) met by both scenarios.
• Significant local difference of harvesting intensity.
S1: Carbon sequestration scenario (increment)
Harvesting
intensity/cell
(1,000 m3/ yr)
Total
harvested
amount in S1:
(1,000 m3/ yr)
Total
harvested
amount in S2:
(1,000 m3/ yr)
0 – 12 208 88
13 – 32 1,098 498
33 – 60 2,820 1,341
61 – 87 1,851 1,194
88 – 141 478 3,290
1,000 m3 tC/ha
tC/ha 1,000 m3
National Park
Legend
National Park
DESIGN_ENG
National Park
National Park - Buffer zone/Area of adhesion
National Park - Core Area
National Park - Integrale Reserve
Swiss National Park
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Legend
National Park
DESIGN_ENG
National Park
National Park - Buffer zone/Area of adhesion
National Park - Core Area
National Park - Integrale Reserve
Swiss National Park
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Legend
National Park
DESIGN_ENG
National Park
National Park - Core Area
National Park - Integrale Reserve
National Park - Buffer zone/Area of adhesion
Swiss National Park
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Nature Reserve
Legend
Nature Reserve
DESIGN_ENG
National Nature Reserve
State Nature Reserve
Nature Reserve
Natural reserve
Regional/Provincial Nature Reserve
Regional Nature Reserve
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Legend
Nature Reserve
DESIGN_ENG
National Nature Reserve
State Nature Reserve
Nature Reserve
Natural reserve
Regional/Provincial Nature Reserve
Regional Nature Reserve
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Legend
National Park
DESIGN_ENG
National Park
National Park - Buffer zone/Area of adhesion
National Park - Core Area
National Park - Integrale Reserve
Swiss National Park
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Natural Park
Legend
Natural Park
DESIGN_ENG
Nature Park
Regional Nature Park
Regional/Provincial Nature Park
Regional Park
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Legend
Natural Park
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Particular Protection
Legend
Particular Protection
DESIGN_ENG
Biosphere Park
Biosphere reserves
Biotope Protection Order
Dry Grasslands
Ecological Important Area
Emerald Sites
Federal Hunting Reserves
Federal Inventory of Alluvial Zones of National I*
Federal Inventory of Amphibian Spawning Areas of *
Federal Inventory of Dry Grasslands and Pastures *
Federal Inventory of Fenlands of National Importa*
Federal Inventory of Raised and Transitional Mire*
Federal Inventory of Reserves for Waterbirds and *
Fenlands of National Importance
Flora Protection Area
Forest Biological Reserve
Forest Reserve
Horticultural Monument
Land acquired by Conservatoire du Littoral (natio*
Land acquired by a regional conservatory of natur*
Landscape Park
Landscape Protection Area
Landscapes and Natural Monuments of National Impo*
Mire Landscapes of National Importance
National Hunting and Wildlife Reserve
Natural Monument
Natural Monument or Site
Other Protected Natural Regional Areas
Particular protection
Protected Area
Protected Forest
Protected Habitat
Protected Landscape Section
Protected Natural Objects of local importance
Raised and Transitional Bogs of National Importan*
Rest Area
Sites for compensation of losses during use of us*
Specialy Protected Area
regional protected areas
special conservation areas
townscape protected area
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Particular Protection
Legend
Particular Protection
DESIGN_ENG
Biosphere Park
Biosphere reserves
Biotope Protection Order
Dry Grasslands
Ecological Important Area
Emerald Sites
Federal Hunting Reserves
Federal Inventory of Alluvial Zones of National I*
Federal Inventory of Amphibian Spawning Areas of *
Federal Inventory of Dry Grasslands and Pastures *
Federal Inventory of Fenlands of National Importa*
Federal Inventory of Raised and Transitional Mire*
Federal Inventory of Reserves for Waterbirds and *
Fenlands of National Importance
Flora Protection Area
Forest Biological Reserve
Forest Reserve
Horticultural Monument
Land acquired by Conservatoire du Littoral (natio*
Land acquired by a regional conservatory of natur*
Landscape Park
Landscape Protection Area
Landscapes and Natural Monuments of National Impo*
Mire Landscapes of National Importance
National Hunting and Wildlife Reserve
Natural Monument
Natural Monument or Site
Other Protected Natural Regional Areas
Particular protection
Protected Area
Protected Forest
Protected Habitat
Protected Landscape Section
Protected Natural Objects of local importance
Raised and Transitional Bogs of National Importan*
Rest Area
Sites for compensation of losses during use of us*
Specialy Protected Area
regional protected areas
special conservation areas
townscape protected area
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Legend
Particular Protection
DESIGN_ENG
Biosphere Park
Biosphere reserves
Biotope Protection Order
Dry Grasslands
Ecological Important Area
Emerald Sites
Federal Hunting Reserves
Federal Inventory of Alluvial Zones of National I*
Federal Inventory of Amphibian Spawning Areas of *
Federal Inventory of Dry Grasslands and Pastures *
Federal Inventory of Fenlands of National Importa*
Federal Inventory of Raised and Transitional Mire*
Federal Inventory of Reserves for Waterbirds and *
Fenlands of National Importance
Flora Protection Area
Forest Biological Reserve
Forest Reserve
Horticultural Monument
Land acquired by Conservatoire du Littoral (natio*
Land acquired by a regional conservatory of natur*
Landscape Park
Landscape Protection Area
Landscapes and Natural Monuments of National Impo*
Mire Landscapes of National Importance
National Hunting and Wildlife Reserve
Natural Monument
Natural Monument or Site
Other Protected Natural Regional Areas
Particular protection
Protected Area
Protected Forest
Protected Habitat
Protected Landscape Section
Protected Natural Objects of local importance
Raised and Transitional Bogs of National Importan*
Rest Area
Sites for compensation of losses during use of us*
Specialy Protected Area
regional protected areas
special conservation areas
townscape protected area
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Natura 2000
Legend
Natura 2000
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Natura 2000
UNESCO Protection
Legend
UNESCO WH + BR
iucn_prote
UNESCO Biosphere Reserve
UNESCO World Heritage
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
UNESCO Protection
IUCN Categories International Union for Conservation of Nature
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
Ia – Strict Nature Reserve
Ib – Wilderness Area
II – National Park
III – Natural Monument or Feature
IV – Habitat/Species Management Area
V – Protected Landscape VI – Protected Area with Sustainable
Use of Natural Resources
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
19
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
Ia – Strict Nature Reserve
Ib – Wilderness Area
II – National Park
III – Natural Monument or Feature
IV – Habitat/Species Management Area
V – Protected Landscape VI – Protected Area with Sustainable
Use of Natural Resources
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
Legend
UNESCO WH + BR
iucn_prote
UNESCO Biosphere Reserve
UNESCO World Heritage
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Legend
Natura 2000
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
IUCN Categories International Union for Conservation of Nature
Sources: combined from EEA - European Environment Agency, WDPA - World
Database on Protected Areas, and ALPARC.
20
Harmonized Protected Areas
Scenario 1 –
General protection
level
Legend
Prot_scenarios_class
Sc1_medium
0
30
50
100
Production restrictions
High protection
Medium protection
Low protection
Solar & Wind
Solar Wind
Source: Garegnani et al. Evaluation of wind, solar and hydro energy potential using GRASS, FOSS4G-Europe 2015, July 14th - 17th 2015, Como.
Theoretical Potential
Solar potential Wind potential
Theoretical Potential by
Catchment
Existing Hydropower
Station
Source: Carma
Own calculation
Remaining Potential (1)
Remaining Potential (1)
Reduced Potential (2)
Reduced Potential (2)
Reduced Potential Breakdown
Marginal protection cost
30
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Ab
atm
ent
cost
ch
ang
e
Protection level
JECAMI
http://www.jecami.eu/
31
• Forests provide a number of essential ecosystem services
and the full range of implication of changes in management
needs to be considered.
• The pros and cons of RE production have to be weighted
against each other in an integrated and systematic manner
while considering trade-offs with ecosystem services (e.g.,
carbon sequestration or biodiversity).
Summary and Outlook
Thank you!
More information on IIASA www.iiasa.ac.at
More on BeWhere www.iiasa.ac.at/bewhere
Contact Sylvain Leduc, leduc@iiasa.ac.at
33
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