confronting the regional land use and transportation challenge: the d.c. perspective
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Confronting the Regional Land Use and Transportation Challenge:The D.C. Perspective
Presentation to COG TPB CACJune 9, 2005
Overview
• DC’s changing role in the region
• Where we are today
• Where we are headed
• Why the COG forecasts concern the District
• Other approaches and ideas
• The Comp Plan as a vehicle for guiding change
DC’s Changing Role
Land Area Population
District 67 570,000
Region 3,020 4,900,000
50 Years of Regional Expansion
Region54%
District46%
Region88%
District12%
1950 2000Population Share
50 Years of Regional Expansion
Region18%
District82%
Region76%
District24%
1950 2000EmploymentShare
Dynamics of Population Change
DC Population, 1950-2000
0100000200000300000400000500000600000700000800000900000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
802,178
572,059
DC has the same number of households today as it had in 1960, but with 200,000 fewer residents
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1970 1980 1990 2000
2.72
2.16
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1970 1980 1990 2000
• Household size has declined consistently since 1960• Between 1980 and 2000, number of households
dropped by 4,800 but number of residents dropped by 66,000
• Small households in, large households out• Today, 44% of all DC households are single people
Households Household Size
Change has Been Uneven
Clusters that lost population
Clusters that lost > 15 percent of their residents
Population Change,1980-2000
Change has Been UnevenPeople Moving Into the Washington Region Between 1995 and 2000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Marri
ed w/k
ids
Marri
ed no k
ids
Oth
er fam
ily w
/kid
s
Oth
er fam
ily n
o kid
s
Non
fam
ily
0-19
20-24
25-29
30-39
40-49
50-65
65plus
po
pu
lati
on
ov
er
ag
e 5
Balance of Region
DC
Change has Been Uneven
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Det
roit
Chi
cago
Bal
timor
e
Hou
ston
Min
neap
olis
Dal
las
St.L
ouis
Mia
mi
New
Yor
k
Pho
enix
Atla
nta
Phi
lade
lphi
a
Sea
ttle
Bos
ton
Was
hing
ton
Los
Ang
eles
Change in concentrated poverty rate, 1990-2000
By 2000, poverty became more concentrated in DC than it was in 1990---counter to national trends.
Change has Been Uneven
education income employment
Growing More Inclusively
• Increasing Access to Education and Employment
• Creating Successful Neighborhoods
• Connecting the City
The Transportation Benefits of a Strong Center
• 37% of DC households don’t own a car• 38% use public transit to get to work (2nd in nation,
after NYC)• 12% walk to work (2nd in nation, after Boston)• Average journey to work is 29.7 minutes• 70% of those traveling to Metro walk to the station;
15% use the bus• Urban land use pattern is efficient from a
transportation perspective
Facing the Future: Why DC Must Grow
Fiscal Imbalance: • 53 percent of the city’s land area is non-taxable • 2/3 of the income earned in the city is exempt
from local income taxes Regional environmental benefits associated
with maintaining a strong center Growth provides critical mass for additional
retail and other services Unmet housing needs and affordability issues
But…• Emphasis is on retaining existing residents• Attract/retain families as well as singles/couples• Don’t compromise neighborhood character or overburden infrastructure
Facing the Future: DC’s Forecasts
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Population 577.5 608.7 642.0 672.6 702.4 712.2
Households 252.0 265.3 280.7 292.9 304.4 308.9
Jobs 742.9 783.6 816.7 830.0 845.0 860.0
(in thousands)
Trouble with the Regional Forecasts
• Inner ring counties approach housing “buildout” around 2020 but keep adding jobs through 2030
• Overall, jobs grow at 3 times the rate of households between 2020-2030
• Examples:• Fairfax County projects an additional 72,000 jobs during the
2020s, but only 2,800 more households.• Montgomery County projects 55,000 more jobs during the
2020s, but only 15,000 more households.• Prince Georges County projects 88,000 more jobs during this
period, and only 23,000 households.
Trouble with the Regional Forecasts
Shortfall of as many as 487,000 housing units projected by COG is unacceptable to the District. Would result in:• Traffic congestion• Urban sprawl and open space loss• Environmental impacts, especially air/water quality• Affordable housing • Central City decline
Forecasts provide an opportunity for a regional dialogue on key issues
Other Approaches and Ideas
• DC is relatively small and reached buildout in 1950, yet we have identified the capacity for 60,000 new units
• For five decades, all growth has occurred through infill and redevelopment
• This is about the same number of units to be added by PG County (485 Sq Mi), Montgomery County (496 Sq Mi), or Fairfax County (396 Sq Mi) between 2005-2030
• How can built out jurisdictions accommodate more households?
Home Again
• Restores vacant and abandoned units
• # of vacant and abandoned units in DC has declined from 6,500 in 1999 to 1,650 today
New Neighborhoods
• Ten “underdeveloped” sites with the capacity for 16,000 new units
• Hope VI replaces public housing with mixed income
New Communities
• Targets crime “hot spots” and at-risk public housing• Provides 1:1 replacement of subsidized housing
units, while adding market rate units• Creates mixed income neighborhoods • Five pilot sites identified, with potential to expand • Total 3,000-5,000 new units in first five years
Great Streets
• Focuses development along corridors, coupled with investment in streetscape, transportation, economic incentives
The “Living” Downtown
• More than 5,000 units to be added, primarily in the Mt Vernon Triangle and NY/ NOMA areas
Promoting Infill
About 600 acres of vacant landPotential for 11,000 additional units under current zoning
Commercial5%
Residential75%
Federal13%
Industrial7%
Vacant Land by Zoning
Strategic Redevelopment
• At least 10,000 units of additional capacity exists on commercially zoned land with improvement value well below land value
• Much of this land is around Metro stations, and along key corridors
Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan
General Provisions10 Citywide ElementsWard Plans
• Economic Development
• Housing
• Environmental Protection
• Transportation
• Public Facilities
• Urban Design
• Preservation and Historic Features
• Downtown
• Human Services
• Land Use
The existing Comprehensive Plan document is 664 pages long and contains no tables,
maps, or graphics
Did you know that…
Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan
November 2003: More than 3,000 participants attendedCitizen Summit III
February 2004:More than 2,000 residents participated in eight Ward Summits
Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan
– Collect and analyze baseline data – Resolve Plan format and structure issues– Complete Policy Audit– Formulate revised policies and actions– Revise the Land Use Map – Assess Plan impacts – Prepare Draft Plan (1/06)– Adoption (6/06)
Comm
unity Input and Outreach
Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan
Website: www.inclusivecity.org28-member Citizens Task ForceCitywide public workshops (Jan 2005, Sep 2005, Jan 2006)ANC briefings/ direct outreach to ANCsOutreach to interest groups, citizen/civic associationsPress releases/ media liaisonInteragency Working GroupSmall Group DiscussionsPublic hearings
Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan
New format, easier to read and navigateGraphics and maps to be incorporatedNew “elements” to be added (parks, arts, etc.)Goals, policies, and actions to be more clearly definedAccountability and implementation to be vastly improvedEmphasis on long-range planning—not operationsThree Vision “themes” to be interwoven
Ideas for Other Jurisdictions
Take stock of underutilized landFocus on commercial and industrially zoned areasConsider rezoning employment-generating land to housingPublic education and outreach regarding the issues at hand
Questions? Barry.Miller@dc.gov 442-7630Jill.Diskan@dc.gov 442-8708
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