Confronting the Regional Land Use and Transportation Challenge:The D.C. Perspective

Presentation to COG TPB CACJune 9, 2005

Overview

• DC’s changing role in the region

• Where we are today

• Where we are headed

• Why the COG forecasts concern the District

• Other approaches and ideas

• The Comp Plan as a vehicle for guiding change

DC’s Changing Role

Land Area Population

District 67 570,000

Region 3,020 4,900,000

50 Years of Regional Expansion

Region54%

District46%

Region88%

District12%

1950 2000Population Share

50 Years of Regional Expansion

Region18%

District82%

Region76%

District24%

1950 2000EmploymentShare

Dynamics of Population Change

DC Population, 1950-2000

0100000200000300000400000500000600000700000800000900000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

802,178

572,059

DC has the same number of households today as it had in 1960, but with 200,000 fewer residents

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1970 1980 1990 2000

2.72

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200000

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300000

1970 1980 1990 2000

• Household size has declined consistently since 1960• Between 1980 and 2000, number of households

dropped by 4,800 but number of residents dropped by 66,000

• Small households in, large households out• Today, 44% of all DC households are single people

Households Household Size

Change has Been Uneven

Clusters that lost population

Clusters that lost > 15 percent of their residents

Population Change,1980-2000

Change has Been UnevenPeople Moving Into the Washington Region Between 1995 and 2000

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Balance of Region

DC

Change has Been Uneven

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Change in concentrated poverty rate, 1990-2000

By 2000, poverty became more concentrated in DC than it was in 1990---counter to national trends.

Change has Been Uneven

education income employment

Growing More Inclusively

• Increasing Access to Education and Employment

• Creating Successful Neighborhoods

• Connecting the City

The Transportation Benefits of a Strong Center

• 37% of DC households don’t own a car• 38% use public transit to get to work (2nd in nation,

after NYC)• 12% walk to work (2nd in nation, after Boston)• Average journey to work is 29.7 minutes• 70% of those traveling to Metro walk to the station;

15% use the bus• Urban land use pattern is efficient from a

transportation perspective

Facing the Future: Why DC Must Grow

Fiscal Imbalance: • 53 percent of the city’s land area is non-taxable • 2/3 of the income earned in the city is exempt

from local income taxes Regional environmental benefits associated

with maintaining a strong center Growth provides critical mass for additional

retail and other services Unmet housing needs and affordability issues

But…• Emphasis is on retaining existing residents• Attract/retain families as well as singles/couples• Don’t compromise neighborhood character or overburden infrastructure

Facing the Future: DC’s Forecasts

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Population 577.5 608.7 642.0 672.6 702.4 712.2

Households 252.0 265.3 280.7 292.9 304.4 308.9

Jobs 742.9 783.6 816.7 830.0 845.0 860.0

(in thousands)

Trouble with the Regional Forecasts

• Inner ring counties approach housing “buildout” around 2020 but keep adding jobs through 2030

• Overall, jobs grow at 3 times the rate of households between 2020-2030

• Examples:• Fairfax County projects an additional 72,000 jobs during the

2020s, but only 2,800 more households.• Montgomery County projects 55,000 more jobs during the

2020s, but only 15,000 more households.• Prince Georges County projects 88,000 more jobs during this

period, and only 23,000 households.

Trouble with the Regional Forecasts

Shortfall of as many as 487,000 housing units projected by COG is unacceptable to the District. Would result in:• Traffic congestion• Urban sprawl and open space loss• Environmental impacts, especially air/water quality• Affordable housing • Central City decline

Forecasts provide an opportunity for a regional dialogue on key issues

Other Approaches and Ideas

• DC is relatively small and reached buildout in 1950, yet we have identified the capacity for 60,000 new units

• For five decades, all growth has occurred through infill and redevelopment

• This is about the same number of units to be added by PG County (485 Sq Mi), Montgomery County (496 Sq Mi), or Fairfax County (396 Sq Mi) between 2005-2030

• How can built out jurisdictions accommodate more households?

Home Again

• Restores vacant and abandoned units

• # of vacant and abandoned units in DC has declined from 6,500 in 1999 to 1,650 today

New Neighborhoods

• Ten “underdeveloped” sites with the capacity for 16,000 new units

• Hope VI replaces public housing with mixed income

New Communities

• Targets crime “hot spots” and at-risk public housing• Provides 1:1 replacement of subsidized housing

units, while adding market rate units• Creates mixed income neighborhoods • Five pilot sites identified, with potential to expand • Total 3,000-5,000 new units in first five years

Great Streets

• Focuses development along corridors, coupled with investment in streetscape, transportation, economic incentives

The “Living” Downtown

• More than 5,000 units to be added, primarily in the Mt Vernon Triangle and NY/ NOMA areas

Promoting Infill

About 600 acres of vacant landPotential for 11,000 additional units under current zoning

Commercial5%

Residential75%

Federal13%

Industrial7%

Vacant Land by Zoning

Strategic Redevelopment

• At least 10,000 units of additional capacity exists on commercially zoned land with improvement value well below land value

• Much of this land is around Metro stations, and along key corridors

Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan

General Provisions10 Citywide ElementsWard Plans

• Economic Development

• Housing

• Environmental Protection

• Transportation

• Public Facilities

• Urban Design

• Preservation and Historic Features

• Downtown

• Human Services

• Land Use

The existing Comprehensive Plan document is 664 pages long and contains no tables,

maps, or graphics

Did you know that…

Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan

November 2003: More than 3,000 participants attendedCitizen Summit III

February 2004:More than 2,000 residents participated in eight Ward Summits

Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan

– Collect and analyze baseline data – Resolve Plan format and structure issues– Complete Policy Audit– Formulate revised policies and actions– Revise the Land Use Map – Assess Plan impacts – Prepare Draft Plan (1/06)– Adoption (6/06)

Comm

unity Input and Outreach

Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan

Website: www.inclusivecity.org28-member Citizens Task ForceCitywide public workshops (Jan 2005, Sep 2005, Jan 2006)ANC briefings/ direct outreach to ANCsOutreach to interest groups, citizen/civic associationsPress releases/ media liaisonInteragency Working GroupSmall Group DiscussionsPublic hearings

Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan

New format, easier to read and navigateGraphics and maps to be incorporatedNew “elements” to be added (parks, arts, etc.)Goals, policies, and actions to be more clearly definedAccountability and implementation to be vastly improvedEmphasis on long-range planning—not operationsThree Vision “themes” to be interwoven

Ideas for Other Jurisdictions

Take stock of underutilized landFocus on commercial and industrially zoned areasConsider rezoning employment-generating land to housingPublic education and outreach regarding the issues at hand

Questions? Barry.Miller@dc.gov 442-7630Jill.Diskan@dc.gov 442-8708