commodities market analysis
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CHAPTER III
MEASURING PRICE FLUCTUATION USING MOVING
AVERAGE METHOD
3.1 INTRODUCTION
MOVING AVERAGE
This chapter deals with the analysis of price fluctuation of selected commodities using
Moving Average Analysis of 4 selected commodities.
The following are the description about the column used in the table, which showed the
analysis of moving average analysis.
Column Column Name Description
1 Date Trading Date
2 Close price Close Price in Rupees
3 Moving average
Moving average calculated for every month
available for trading in Rupees.
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MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH
2012
MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011
TABLE 3.1 CHART 3.1
27000
27500
28000
28500
29000
29500
30000
30500
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
DECEMBER 2011
GOLD DECEMBER 2011
Date Close Price(Rs) Moving avg
1-Dec-11 28888
2-Dec-11 28891
3-Dec-11 28943 28907.333
5-Dec-11 28943 28925.667
6-Dec-11 29772 29219.333
7-Dec-11 30090 29601.667
8-Dec-11 30069 29977
9-Dec-11 29955 30038
10-Dec-11 29955 29993
12-Dec-11 29695 29868.333
13-Dec-11 29764 29804.667
14-Dec-11 29055 29504.667
15-Dec-11 28493 29104
16-Dec-11 28387 28645
17-Dec-11 28508 28462.667
19-Dec-11 28498 28464.333
20-Dec-11 28753 28586.333
21-Dec-11 28904 28718.333
22-Dec-11 28646 28767.667
23-Dec-11 28662 28737.333
24-Dec-11 28716 28674.667
26-Dec-11 28716 28698
27-Dec-11 28716 28716
28-Dec-11 28286 28572.667
29-Dec-11 27602 28201.333
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MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012
TABLE 3.2 CHART 3.2
27000
27200
27400
27600
27800
28000
28200
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
JANUARY 2012
GOLD JANUARY 2012
Date Close(Rs) Moving avg
2-Jan-12 27382
3-Jan-12 27656
4-Jan-12 27852 27630
5-Jan-12 27821 27776.333
6-Jan-12 27755 27809.333
7-Jan-12 27762 27779.333
9-Jan-12 27578 27698.333
10-Jan-12 27537 27625.667
11-Jan-12 27657 27590.667
12-Jan-12 27665 27619.667
13-Jan-12 27427 27583
14-Jan-12 27507 27533
16-Jan-12 27484 27472.667
17-Jan-12 27588 27526.333
18-Jan-12 27475 27515.667
19-Jan-12 27347 27470
20-Jan-12 27448 27423.333
21-Jan-12 27490 27428.333
23-Jan-12 27510 27482.667
24-Jan-12 27383 27461
25-Jan-12 27589 27494
27-Jan-12 27957 27643
28-Jan-12 27990 27845.333
30-Jan-12 28059 28002
31-Jan-12 28078 28042.333
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MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012
TABLE 3.3 CHART 3.3
27000
27500
28000
28500
29000
29500
30000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
FEBRUARY 2012GOLD FEBRUARY 2012
Date Close price Moving avg
1-Feb-12 28083
2-Feb-12 28155
3-Feb-12 27711 27983
4-Feb-12 27948 27938
6-Feb-12 28950 28203
7-Feb-12 28950 28616
8-Feb-12 29306 29068.67
9-Feb-12 29326 29194
10-Feb-12 29279 29303.67
11-Feb-12 29272 29292.33
13-Feb-12 29155 29235.33
14-Feb-12 29062 29163
15-Feb-12 29246 29154.33
16-Feb-12 29161 29156.33
17-Feb-12 29141 29182.67
18-Feb-12 29141 29147.67
20-Feb-12 29156 29146
21-Feb-12 29425 29240.67
22-Feb-12 29600 29393.67
23-Feb-12 29918 29647.67
24-Feb-12 29780 29766
25-Feb-12 29730 29809.33
27-Feb-12 29739 29749.67
28-Feb-12 29957 29808.67
29-Feb-12 29091 29595.67
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INTERPRETATION
The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of gold.
In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.30,090 and the minimum price is
Rs.27,602. In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.28,078 and the minimum price is
Rd.27,347. In the February month, the maximum price is Rs.29,957 and the minimum price is
27,711. It indicates that in the month of January there was high decline of gold because of the
recession and in the month of February there was a high fluctuation throughout the month.
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MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH
2012
MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011
TABLE 3.4 CHART 3.4
51000
52000
53000
54000
55000
56000
57000
58000
59000
60000
61000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
DECEMBER 2011SILVER DECEMBER 2011
Date Close(Rs) Moving
avg
1-Dec-11 54953
2-Dec-11 55076
3-Dec-11 55270 55099.667
5-Dec-11 55501 55282.333
6-Dec-11 60101 56957.333
7-Dec-11 60525 58709
8-Dec-11 59656 60094
9-Dec-11 59656 59945.667
10-Dec-11 59656 59656
12-Dec-11 59851 59721
13-Dec-11 59800 59769
14-Dec-11 58777 59476
15-Dec-11 56810 58462.333
16-Dec-11 56922 57503
17-Dec-11 56922 56884.667
19-Dec-11 56423 56755.66720-Dec-11 56679 56674.667
21-Dec-11 56679 56593.667
22-Dec-11 56239 56532.333
23-Dec-11 56500 56472.667
24-Dec-11 57254 56664.333
26-Dec-11 56449 56734.333
27-Dec-11 56242 56648.333
28-Dec-11 54797 55829.333
29-Dec-11 52795 54611.333
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MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012
TABLE 3.5 CHART 3.5
49000
50000
51000
52000
53000
54000
55000
56000
57000
58000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
JANUARY 2012Date
SILVER JANUARY 2012
Close Moving avg
2-Jan-12 51330
3-Jan-12 53109
4-Jan-12 52761 52400
5-Jan-12 52740 52870
6-Jan-12 51868 52456.333
7-Jan-12 51845 52151
9-Jan-12 51749 51820.667
10-Jan-12 52566 52053.333
11-Jan-12 52607 52307.333
12-Jan-12 52770 52647.667
13-Jan-12 52001 52459.333
14-Jan-12 52124 52298.333
16-Jan-12 52315 52146.667
17-Jan-12 53207 52548.667
18-Jan-12 53428 52983.333
19-Jan-12 53387 53340.667
20-Jan-12 54825 53880
21-Jan-12 55548 54586.667
23-Jan-12 55565 55312.667
24-Jan-12 55365 55492.667
25-Jan-12 56411 55780.333
27-Jan-12 57165 56313.667
28-Jan-12 57229 56935
30-Jan-12 56992 57128.667
31-Jan-12 56422 56881
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MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012
TABLE 3.6 CHART 3.6
54000
55000
56000
57000
58000
59000
60000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
FEBRUARY 2012SILVER FEBRUARY 2012
Date Close
price
Moving
avg
1-Feb-12 56834
2-Feb-12 57023
3-Feb-12 56161 56672.67
4-Feb-12 56157 56447
6-Feb-12 56426 56248
7-Feb-12 57265 56616
8-Feb-12 56821 56837.33
9-Feb-12 57177 57087.67
10-Feb-12 56915 56971
11-Feb-12 56875 56989
13-Feb-12 56664 56818
14-Feb-12 56416 56651.67
15-Feb-12 56303 56461
16-Feb-12 56216 56311.67
17-Feb-12 55926 56148.33
18-Feb-12 56108 56083.33
20-Feb-12 56320 56118
21-Feb-12 57157 56528.33
22-Feb-12 57257 56911.33
23-Feb-12 58677 57697
24-Feb-12 58404 58112.67
25-Feb-12 58435 58505.33
27-Feb-12 58710 58516.33
28-Feb-12 60883 59342.67
29-Feb-12 57783 59125.33
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INTERPRETATION
The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of silver.
In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.60525 and the minimum price is Rs.52795.
In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.57229 and the minimum price is Rd.51330. In the
February month, the maximum price is Rs60883 and the minimum price is 56108. The table and
chart indicates that in the month of December there was a decline in silver price and in the month of
January and February there was a slow and steady increase in silver price.
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MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO
MARCH 2012
MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011
TABLE 3.7 CHART 3.7
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
DECEMBER 2011ALUMINIUM DECEMBER 2011
Date Close(Rs) Moving avg
1-Dec-11 110.85
2-Dec-11 112.15
3-Dec-11 111.6 111.5333333
5-Dec-11 110.9 111.55
6-Dec-11 111.2 111.2333333
7-Dec-11 110.8 110.9666667
8-Dec-11 109.85 110.6166667
9-Dec-11 110.5 110.3833333
10-Dec-11 110.5 110.2833333
12-Dec-11 110.05 110.35
13-Dec-11 110.3 110.2833333
14-Dec-11 109.45 109.9333333
15-Dec-11 108.7 109.4833333
16-Dec-11 108.2 108.7833333
17-Dec-11 108.3 108.4
19-Dec-11 107.35 107.95
20-Dec-11 108.15 107.9333333
21-Dec-11 108 107.833333322-Dec-11 108.1 108.0833333
23-Dec-11 108.85 108.3166667
24-Dec-11 108.85 108.6
26-Dec-11 108.85 108.85
27-Dec-11 108.5 108.7333333
28-Dec-11 109.05 108.8
29-Dec-11 108.15 108.5666667
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MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012
TABLE 3.8 CHART 3.8
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
JANUARY 2012ALUMINIUM JANUARY 2012
Date Close Moving
avg
2-Jan-12 110.05
3-Jan-12 110.6
4-Jan-12 111.85 110.83333
5-Jan-12 110.6 111.01667
6-Jan-12 110.45 110.96667
7-Jan-12 110.45 110.5
9-Jan-12 112.4 111.1
10-Jan-12 113.1 111.98333
11-Jan-12 113.55 113.01667
12-Jan-12 114.05 113.56667
13-Jan-12 112.6 113.4
14-Jan-12 112.9 113.18333
16-Jan-12 112.85 112.78333
17-Jan-12 114.2 113.31667
18-Jan-12 113.25 113.43333
19-Jan-12 113.65 113.7
20-Jan-12 113.2 113.36667
21-Jan-12 113.2 113.35
23-Jan-12 113.25 113.2166724-Jan-12 113.85 113.43333
25-Jan-12 113.5 113.53333
27-Jan-12 113.75 113.7
28-Jan-12 113.5 113.58333
30-Jan-12 113.2 113.48333
31-Jan-12 113.4 113.36667
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MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012
TABLE 3.9 CHART 3.9
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
FEBRUARY 2012ALUMINIUM FEBRUARY 2012
Date Close price Moving
avg
1-Feb-12 112.65
2-Feb-12 110.2
3-Feb-12 110.8 111.2167
4-Feb-12 110.8 110.6
6-Feb-12 110.9 110.8333
7-Feb-12 111.85 111.1833
8-Feb-12 112.25 111.6667
9-Feb-12 113.7 112.6
10-Feb-12 112.65 112.8667
11-Feb-12 112.85 113.0667
13-Feb-12 110.95 112.15
14-Feb-12 110.65 111.4833
15-Feb-12 110.3 110.6333
16-Feb-12 108.95 109.9667
17-Feb-12 108.25 109.1667
18-Feb-12 108.2 108.4667
20-Feb-12 108.6 108.35
21-Feb-12 111 109.2667
22-Feb-12 112.55 110.7167
23-Feb-12 112.2 111.9167
24-Feb-12 111.65 112.1333
25-Feb-12 111.55 111.8
27-Feb-12 111.24 111.48
28-Feb-12 112.1 111.63
29-Feb-12 112.65 111.9967
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INTERPRETATION
The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of aluminium.
In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.112.15 and the minimum price is
Rs.107.35. In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.114.2 and the minimum price is
Rs.110.65. In the February month, the maximum price is Rs.112.85 and the minimum price is
Rs.108.2. The table and chart indicates that in the month of December there was a full decline and in
the month of January a slow and steady increase in aluminium. But in the month of February the
aluminium price was highly fluctuated.
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MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH
2012
MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011
TABLE 3.10 CHART 3.10
385
390
395
400
405
410
415
420
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
DECEMBER 2011COPPER DECEMBER 2011
Date Close(Rs) Moving
avg
1-Dec-11 412.1
2-Dec-11 414.4
3-Dec-11 415.2 0
5-Dec-11 419.45 416.35
6-Dec-11 416.15 416.93333
7-Dec-11 416 417.2
8-Dec-11 413.45 415.2
9-Dec-11 418.9 416.11667
10-Dec-11 420.05 417.46667
12-Dec-11 414.25 417.73333
13-Dec-11 415.6 416.63333
14-Dec-11 404.5 411.45
15-Dec-11 397.85 405.98333
16-Dec-11 397.75 400.03333
17-Dec-11 400.5 398.7
19-Dec-11 397.55 398.6
20-Dec-11 403.75 400.6
21-Dec-11 405.35 402.21667
22-Dec-11 408.05 405.71667
23-Dec-11 413.6 409
24-Dec-11 414.35 412
26-Dec-11 414.25 414.06667
27-Dec-11 410.9 413.16667
28-Dec-11 407.5 410.8833329-Dec-11 407.5 408.63333
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MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012
TABLE 3.11 CHART 3.11
390
395
400
405
410
415
420
425
430
435
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
JANUARY 2012
COPPER JANUARY 2012
Date close Moving avg
2-Jan-12 415.5
3-Jan-12 417.65
4-Jan-12 407.5 413.55
5-Jan-12 406.3 410.4833333
6-Jan-12 406.3 406.7
7-Jan-12 405.8 406.1333333
9-Jan-12 402.95 405.0166667
10-Jan-12 407.75 405.511-Jan-12 411.15 407.2833333
12-Jan-12 420.3 413.0666667
13-Jan-12 419.5 416.9833333
14-Jan-12 419.65 419.8166667
16-Jan-12 422.05 420.4
17-Jan-12 423.4 421.7
18-Jan-12 422.8 422.75
19-Jan-12 427.55 424.5833333
20-Jan-12 421.15 423.8333333
21-Jan-12 421.85 423.5166667
23-Jan-12 424.9 422.6333333
24-Jan-12 426.1 424.2833333
25-Jan-12 427 426
27-Jan-12 429.6 427.5666667
28-Jan-12 429.7 428.7666667
30-Jan-12 425.85 428.3833333
31-Jan-12 422.35 425.9666667
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MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012
TABLE 3.12 CHART 3.12
400
405
410
415
420
425
430
435
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
FEBRUARY 2012COPPER FEBRUARY 2012
Date Close price Moving
avg
1-Feb-12 423.45
2-Feb-12 416.8
3-Feb-12 424.15 421.4667
4-Feb-12 424.1 421.6833
6-Feb-12 423.8 424.0167
7-Feb-12 426.1 424.6667
8-Feb-12 429.8 426.5667
9-Feb-12 439.15 431.6833
10-Feb-12 429.9 432.95
11-Feb-12 430.15 433.0667
13-Feb-12 424.85 428.3
14-Feb-12 423.65 426.2167
15-Feb-12 421.7 423.4
16-Feb-12 421.3 422.2167
17-Feb-12 412.25 418.4167
18-Feb-12 413.15 415.5667
20-Feb-12 414.6 413.3333
21-Feb-12 421.9 416.55
22-Feb-12 422.9 419.8
23-Feb-12 418.9 421.2333
24-Feb-12 423.1 421.6333
25-Feb-12 422.6 421.5333
27-Feb-12 426.65 424.1167
28-Feb-12 428.65 425.9667
29-Feb-12 425.55 426.95
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INTERPRETATION
The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of copper.
In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.112.15 and the minimum price is
Rs.107.35. In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.114.2 and the minimum price is
Rs.110.65. In the February month, the maximum price is Rs.112.85 and the minimum price is
Rs.108.2. The table and charts indicates that in the month of December and February the price of
copper was highly fluctuated and in the month of January there was a slow and steady fluctuation.
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