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Commodities and market outlook – Zinc PresentationPDAC Technical Session ‐March 3rd, 2013 – Michael Williams
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Refined Zinc Supply/Demand and Prices
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
‐1000
‐800
‐600
‐400
‐200
0
200
400
6001990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014F
2016F
Implied Surplus/Deficit('000 tonnes)Nominal LME Cash Prices(US$/lb)
Commodity Supercycle
Source: Brook Hunt, ILZSG, RBC Capital Market estimates
“The times they are a changing…”
Exploration Trends – “Where is the Love?”3
Gold, copper and silver accounted for 92% of significant precious and base metals drill results in 2011.
Roughly 65% of financings completed in 2011 were gold related alone.
Canada received 2.5x more gold exploration funding than the base metals budgets combined.
Source: Metals Economic Group – World Exploration Trends 2012
4
Mine Depletion/Attrition
Global Zinc Mine Supply
Global Mine Production 2012
2012‐2016 Mine Depletion
13.5 Million Tonnes
1.7 Million Tonnes (12.5%)
Source: FMZ estimates
Major Mine Closures and Contractions5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600Major Zinc Mines set to close or contract (‐2015) (production loss in ‘000 tonnes)
Closures Contractions
6
Ever‐Growing Mine Deficit?
7
A Copper Comparison
Global Copper Mine Supply
Global Mine Production2012Freeport‐McMoRan
BHP Billiton
20 Million Tonnes
1.1 Million Tonnes
1.65 Million Tonnes
Source: FMZ estimates
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Global Demand – Fuelled by China
19998 Million Tonnes
Other
Russia
China
Eastern Europe
Other Asia
Oceania
Western Europe
USA
Africa
16%
2014 Forecast14 Million Tonnes
Other
Russia
China
Eastern Europe
Other Asia
Oceania
Western Europe
USA
Africa
49%
Source: Brook Hunt, ILZSG, RBC Capital Markets estimates
9
350 million will be added to China’s urban population by 2025 1 billion will live in China’s cities by 2030 China already consumes more steel than the US, Europe and Japan
combined 221 cities will have 1 million+ living in them (Europe has 35 such
cities today) 170 mass‐transit systems could be built 50,000 new buildings could be skyscrapers – equivalent to
constructing 10 New York cities China’s level of vehicle ownership is equivalent to the US in the
1920’s There are more Volkswagens in China than in Germany
China’s Urbanization 2010‐2025
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Others
Treatment Charges – “The Canary in the Zinc mine”
10
Global smelting capacity exceeds mine production.
Short‐term ‐ Rising TC’s in response to concentrate surplus as Chinese smelters not operating at full capacity.
Medium‐term – Falling TC’s as the imbalance will become apparent as mine closures reduce in relative terms mine production to smelter capacity.
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Declining grades
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
2000 2005 2010 2015F 2020F 2025F
Average Zinc Head Grade (%)
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Macquarie Research
Canadian Zinc Outlook12
A microcosm of the global zinc industry Mine closures forthcoming (Brunswick/Perseverance)
New smaller mines replacing them (Xstrata/Donner Metal’s Bracemac‐McLeod mine)
Large undeveloped zinc resources such as the Selwyn Project in the Yukon requiring higher prices to justify development
Summary – “This ain’t your father’s zinc market”
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Rising Demand Unprecedented level of mine closures Declining head grades Severe lack of exploration and development
Higher prices medium/long term due to sustained zinc deficits
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