commodities and finance -an unsteady relationship- october 1, 2010 jorge montepeque global director...
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Commodities and finance-An unsteady relationship-
October 1, 2010Jorge Montepeque Global Director Market Reports
Agenda
• Fundamental drivers in commodity markets
• Examples of market fundamentals at work
• Major trends in oil markets
• Energy markets are shifting outside of OECD
• US energy markets start to lose prominence
• Russian exports to the East: ESPO
• Commodity price discovery is moving East
• Agriculturals, metals and energy react to same drivers
• Impact of Chinese market on world commodities
Dated Brent: The last decade
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
$/b
bl The growth period
The crunch
The support
Economic crunch drove gasoline prices below crude oil
-5.00
-2.50
0.00
2.50
5.00
7.50
10.00
12.50
15.00
17.50
20.00
$/b
bl
New global crude oil flow trends
Petroterminal de Panama pipeline reversed
Brazil/Saudi Arabia buying storage in Japan
East-West option for Russian crude oil
Sumed may reverse one of its pipelines
Oil flowing to Asia at an
increasing rate
Asian market size attracts attention
• Russia undertakes massive development project to reset oil flows in its vast territory and export ESPO to Asian markets
• Russia targeted initial flow of 300,000 b/d out of the port of Kozmino for early 2010 rising to 600,000 b/d by end of year
• Saudi Arabia exits St Eustatius storage facility that feeds US markets
• Saudi Arabia obtains storage facility in Japan to feed Asian markets
• Iraqis and Iranians target Asian markets
• Brazil acquires storage facility in Japan
• Continuous expansion in Korea tankage facilities
Key issues alter world economics and oil flows
• The world is in the process of resetting with economic vigor transferred to the East and away from ‘old’ economies
• China’s growth continues at a rapid pace and set to achieve economic lifestyles similar to other Asian standards
• China has become the largest waterborne crude oil importing market in the East and will become the largest globally in the next few years. China is already the largest metals importer.
• High oil prices foster growth in domestic consumption in Middle East with producers gnawing away at their own supplies due to non-market internal pricing and end user subsidies
• Western economies still coping with credit crunch aftermath, quantitative easing sparks fears of inflation and weakens currencies
• Budgets are dry with borrowing less likely due to soaring external debt
ESPO Pipeline Project
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Mil
b/d
China’s imports of oil set to overshadow the US
Hhh
Difference between the US and China crude oil imports
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
mil
b/d
LNG powers ahead
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
$/m
il b
tu
Corn Prices
China drives the metals markets
• China imports about 40% of the worlds metals supply
• China consumes about 600 mil metric tonnes of iron ore out of a 1,700 mil metric tonnes market
• China is the main participant in the iron ore spot market buying about 150 mil metric tonnes per annum spot
• Price discovery of iron ore is focused on the waterborne market delivered into China
Iron Ore CFR China
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
$/m
t
Dated Brent vs IODEX
Federal Fund Rate
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Fed
rat
e
External Debt
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
US Greece Spain France Belgium UK Ireland
$-Tr
illio
n
External debt to GDP ratio
0.9651.71 1.86
2.483.28
4.25
13.12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
US Greece Spain France Belgium UK Ireland
Rati
o
Thank youThank you
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