coincidence & probability judgements. learning objectives to explore further ways to account for...

Coincidence & Probability Judgements

Learning Objectives •To explore further ways to account for

factors underlying anomalous experiences•To understand the role of deception, self

deception, superstition & coincidence•To investigate the methods used to

achieve these things

Coincidence • “The co-occurrence of two or more events which, by

chance, happen at the same time, leading to a belief that these events are connected when in fact they are not”

• Things happening together• How many paranormal experiences are just a

coincidence?• The Birthday Problem

▫ You walk into a room of 22 people, what are the chances of you having the same birthday as someone else in the room?

▫ More likely than not (50.7%)• May be seen as ‘spooky’ or that you have a ‘connection’

but is simple probability (coincidence)

Explaining Coincidence • Watt (1990/91)• There is a “Hidden Cause” – You dream a celebrity has

died. You wake up & put the news on to see that they are dead. Telepathic right?▫ WRONG – could be that you overheard a TV or conversation

before going to bed without realising it▫ There is a “Hidden Cause” to your reported ability that you are

not aware of • Multiple End Points – You ‘feel’ a friend is going to call & at

that moment another one does. You then think you are close to getting it right so must have psychic ability ▫ A nearly is more likely than an exact. There is more chance of

this happening but this ‘coincidence’ may lead you to thinking you have an ability.

Explaining Coincidence •Watt (1990/91)•The Law of Extremely Large Numbers –

‘WOW this is amazing, this hardly ever happens to anyone’▫Something which happens 1 in 1Million

every day is going to happen to 61 people every day in the UK (pop. 61 Million) or 22,265 times a year

▫Not amazing just coincidence, maths, the Law of Extremely Large Numbers

Coincidence •Blackmore & Troscianko (1985)•Looked at sheep & goats (psi & non-psi)

opinions of a gender mix at a party•Sheep less likely to spot a bias•More likely to see things as out of the

ordinary than down to chance

Probability Judgements •This is the reasoning associated with

coincidence, the cognitive side•Self deception may be a form of

probability judgement

Self Deception • Telling yourself one thing to confirm your false

beliefs• “Mislead self to accept true what is most likely

false”• Justifying false beliefs

▫“Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi has told the BBC he is loved by all his people and has denied there have been any protests in Tripoli. . . Col Gaddafi said true Libyans had not demonstrated but those who had come on to the streets were under the influence of drugs supplied by al-Qaeda”

Self Deception •Gilovich (1993) – 3 Methods of self

deception• Misinterpretation of data – seeing patterns

that aren’t there• Misinterpretation of incomplete/

unrepresentative data – focusing on confirmatory data while ignoring data which goes against idea

• Uncritical of support but very critical of contrary information

Gilovich (1993) •This would mean you need control in

research, double blind studies, randomisation of conditions, replicable & publication

•BUT… This is not possible with spontaneous events (UFO’s, ghosts, poltergeists etc.) so if you believe Gilovich then all paranormal events are tainted by self deception

•Irwin (2002) – all researchers believe/study self serving information

Superstitions & Magical Thinking

Superstition• “Belief in the significance of a behaviour not based on

knowledge or reason”• Friday 13th , breaking a mirror, walking under a ladder

etc.• The basic principal which underlies all superstitions is

the idea that we have control over things out of our control - decrease anxiety = increase supersition

• But why do we have superstitions?▫ Behavioural▫ Psychodynamic▫ Cognitive

• As psychologists, you should be able to come up with the theories!

Behavioural• Skinner, operant conditioning, reward & punishment.

Rewards increase behaviour.• Superstitions are learnt• Skinner – Superstitions learnt in Pigeons

▫ Given food every 15 secs. This then increased in random durations until 60 secs

▫ Repetitive behaviour was noticed in the pigeons in-between receiving the food

▫ Head tossing, swinging, hopping, spinning etc.▫ As though these behaviours influenced receiving the food (it

didn’t)• Transferred to humans, they may learn superstitions. By not

walking under a ladder & getting to work safely, this is a reward

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uPmeWiFTIw

Psychodynamic• Freud (1901) – unconscious, unacceptable thoughts

repressed in unconscious, unknown motive for behaviour.

• Superstitions = attaching unconscious threats to real world events

• E.g. Bad thought (harm to a loved one) = guilt in the unconscious = expectation that something bad will happen to them

• This ‘terror’ that something bad will happen manifests it’s self in the conscious by performing behaviours to prevent it e.g. not walking under a ladder

Psychodynamic cont.• No psychodynamic approach would be complete

without bringing sex into it…• Marmor (1956) – Oedipus/Electra complexes.

Hostility felt towards same sex parent▫Boys – Jealous of dad because of feelings towards

mum▫Girls – Angry at mum for castration

• The child needs the parent & so can not vent this hostility

• Hostility ‘housed’ in unconscious & needs to be calmed by behaviours e.g. knocking on wood

• Unfalsifiable

Cognitive •Jahoda (1969) – thinking error’s/false

perception or memory•The way we think about situations may

lead to superstitions•‘Selective forgetting’ –we forget the

information which disproves a superstition but remember info which confirms it

•Lehmann (1898) – memories fragile

Cognitive – More recently• Lindemann & Aarnio (2007)• Cyanide – deadly chemical for humans. Used in

Nazi death camps, taken by Nazi leaders when captured, execution of criminals in USA, ‘00’ agents given them to take if captured

• Intuitive (hunches, gut feeling) vs. Analytical (explainable, rational) thinkers

• Intuitive thinkers have superstitions• Cause & effect – are the superstitions causing

the thinking style or is the thinking style causing the superstition?

Cognitive – More recently cont.• Intentionality – implying an inanimate object or

body part is capable of thinking• Linderman & Saher (2007) – superstitious

people more likely to state that thinks have intentionality

• “a cut finger wants to get better” “We grow because our bones want to” – even with same biological knowledge

• Dual-coding process theory. Everyone encodes intuitively & analytically – Superstitious more intuitively, not stupid.

Magical Thinking•Magical Thinking

▫The belief in magic, all things are connected, powers, forces, rituals (e.g. rain dance)

•Law of Contagion▫The thinking that things which have been in

contact together retain some sort of magical connection even when separated

▫Hitler’s Coat▫Linked to thought-action fusion from OCD –

Einstein & Menzies (2003) found a strong correlation between OCD & Magical thinking

Magical Thinking• Law of Similarity

▫ The idea that objects or events which are similar or resemble each other are connected in a causal way that defies scientific investigation

• Pills▫ De Craen et al. (1996) – 6 studies in the BMJ on belief of effectiveness of

different pills. Found ‘Magical Thinking’.▫ Red, Orange & Yellow – Stimulant▫ Blue & Green – Sedative▫ Red – cardio-vascular, blood (Law of Similarity)▫ Orange - Skin

• Voodoo▫ Voodoo dolls▫ ‘You can give someone a headache by taking and turning their picture

upside down.’ ▫ ‘You can harm a person in whatever way you want to by getting a lock of

his hair and burning some and throwing the rest away.’

Magical Thinking• Coping Mechanism

▫ One possible reason for magical thinking is as a coping mechanism to the world

• Cognitive▫ Again think control over the uncontrollable

• Psychodynamic▫ Childhood trauma▫ Lawernce et al. (1994) - Positive correlation between

childhood trauma and magical thinking▫ Perkins & Allen (2006) – Childhood abuse – more magical

thinking for ESP (control) rather than UFO’s (not control)▫ Irwin (1994) – Children of alcoholics have stronger

magical thinking to cope with negative atmosphere

Coincidence & Superstition recap•Describe the behavioural approach to

superstition.•Describe the psychodynamic approach to

superstition.•Describe the cognitive approach to superstition.•Define the ‘Law of Contagion’•Define the ‘Law of Similarity’•What are Watt’s 3 ways in which coincidence

may explain the paranormal?•Define a coincidence

What you should know by now…•The definition of coincidence &

probability judgements•The explanations for superstitions and

magical thinking•How these 4 things may explain

paranormal experiences•Research to support each of these

Prep•“Discuss the psychology of coincidence &

probability judgements and superstition & Magical thinking (20 marks)”