climate change vulnerability assessment in thailand...background the master plan provided the...

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment in Thailand

Kampanart PiyathamrongchaI Naresuan University

Outline

Background

Objectives

Concept and technique to assess climate change vulnerability

Discussion on vulnerability pattern of Thailand

Summary

Office of Natural Resources and Environment Policy and

Planning (ONEP)

Climate Change Management Coordination Division

National Master Plan on Climate Change

Background

Background

The master plan provided the information on climate change that would possibly affect to any parts of Thailand.

The next step, the “Climate Change Adaptation” processes are needed to take into account in order to develop National Adaptation Plan of Thailand.

One of the very first and important step to develop the NAP is climate change vulnerability assessment.

National Master Plan on Climate Change

Water Management

Tourism

Agriculture and Food Security

Health

Settlement and Human Security

Natural Resources

Background

Objectives

To study, assess and map climate change vulnerability of the major sectors in Thailand.

To construct database and geo-database infrastructure concerning to climate change adaptation.

To provide information and overall recommendations to further develop the NAP.

Concept and technique to assess climate change vulnerability

V=f(E,S,A)

V

S

A

V-ESA

CLIMATE CHANGE

EE

Hazard Map (Exposures)

VULNERABILITY MAP

Sensitivity Map Adaptive Capacity Map

GIS

CC Vulnerability Mapping

E xposure

Climate Change

Temperature rising

Irregular Rainfall

Sea level rising Flood

Drought

Flash Flood

Landslide

Irregular Sea Temperature

Stronger Tropical Storm

Heat

FLOOD

Streamflow in each basin

Slope

Stream density

Road density

Soil

Topography

Overlay Flood

9 years flood-prone area

RCP4.5

FLASH FLOOD

Rainfall

Basin size

Forest area

Built-up area

Slope

OverlayFlash flood

Basin shape

RCP4.5

Crop expose to CC

Drought

Possibility to exposure in the present and future

Crop Areas

Crop areas +

Example: how do crop areas expose to climate change?

UDORNTHANI

NONGBUALAMPHU

KHONKAEN

LOEI

NONGKHAI

Example: Crop area in which provinces are in drought risk?

Crop expose to drought

risk

Which provinces are at risk in each sector?

Province-based crop expose to

drought risk level

Proportion of crop area

in each province

Severity levels

weighted by exposure

GIS Zone stat

GIS Zone

histogram

+

Pixel-based exposure level

EE

Crop

EEProvince-based exposure level

GIS

S ensitivity

Sensitivity indicators for human settlement?

Somethings can indicate sensitivity numerically?

Population Density Gross Provincial Product

Number of Megaprojects in the

province

Priority or Hierarchy of cities

S ensitivityPopulation Density Gross Provincial Product

Megaprojects in the province Priority or Hierarchy of cities

A daptive capacity

Adaptive capacity indicators for human settlement?

Somethings can point to the strength of area to adapt?

Human Achievement Index (HAI)

Proportion of urbanised area and

other land uses

including 8 main indicators with more 30 indices such as Health index, Life & livelihood index etc. http://www.undp.org/content/dam/thailand/docs/NHDR2010.pdf

A daptive capacityHuman Achievement Index (HAI)

Proportion of urbanised area and other land uses

Settlement and Human Security

S

EE

A

Impact

S

EE

Vulnerability

A

Settlement and Human Security

Discussion on vulnerability pattern of Thailand

Tourism

Agriculture and Food Security

Health

Settlement and Human Security

Natural Resources

Vulnerability of

Vulnerability map

Vulnerability maps 2015

RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

2035

RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

Vulnerability maps

2055

RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

Vulnerability maps

11 highest vulnerability of Thailand

2558

Bangkok

Nakornsawan

Khonkaen

Nakornratchasrima

Surin

Ubonratchathani

Burirum

Kampaengphet

Srisaket

Udornthani

2.5 2.675 2.85 3.025 3.2

2558

Bangkok

Nakornsawan

Khonkaen

Nakornratchasrima

Surin

Ubonratchathani

Burirum

Kampaengphet

Srisaket

Udornthani

2.675 2.85 3.025 3.2

RCP4.5

RCP8.5

Vulnerability cluster

Group A

Agriculture > Settlement > Natural Resources > Health

Group B

Settlement > Tourism > Natural Resources

Group C

Health > Agriculture > Natural Resources

Group D

Settlement > Tourism

Group E

Natural Resources

Summary

To assess vulnerability, it is necessary to

simulate the future climate change,

model the exposures of the sector to risks based on predicted climate data,

choose sensitivity indicators and

find adaptive capacity of the area.

GIS is a powerful tool to analyse and visualise the vulnerability in spatial sense.

Thank you.

http://ncegg.info/cc_project