climate change vulnerability assessment in thailand...background the master plan provided the...
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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment in Thailand
Kampanart PiyathamrongchaI Naresuan University
Outline
Background
Objectives
Concept and technique to assess climate change vulnerability
Discussion on vulnerability pattern of Thailand
Summary
Office of Natural Resources and Environment Policy and
Planning (ONEP)
Climate Change Management Coordination Division
National Master Plan on Climate Change
Background
Background
The master plan provided the information on climate change that would possibly affect to any parts of Thailand.
The next step, the “Climate Change Adaptation” processes are needed to take into account in order to develop National Adaptation Plan of Thailand.
One of the very first and important step to develop the NAP is climate change vulnerability assessment.
National Master Plan on Climate Change
Water Management
Tourism
Agriculture and Food Security
Health
Settlement and Human Security
Natural Resources
Background
Objectives
To study, assess and map climate change vulnerability of the major sectors in Thailand.
To construct database and geo-database infrastructure concerning to climate change adaptation.
To provide information and overall recommendations to further develop the NAP.
Concept and technique to assess climate change vulnerability
V=f(E,S,A)
V
S
A
V-ESA
CLIMATE CHANGE
EE
Hazard Map (Exposures)
VULNERABILITY MAP
Sensitivity Map Adaptive Capacity Map
GIS
CC Vulnerability Mapping
E xposure
Climate Change
Temperature rising
Irregular Rainfall
Sea level rising Flood
Drought
Flash Flood
Landslide
Irregular Sea Temperature
Stronger Tropical Storm
Heat
FLOOD
Streamflow in each basin
Slope
Stream density
Road density
Soil
Topography
Overlay Flood
9 years flood-prone area
RCP4.5
FLASH FLOOD
Rainfall
Basin size
Forest area
Built-up area
Slope
OverlayFlash flood
Basin shape
RCP4.5
Crop expose to CC
Drought
Possibility to exposure in the present and future
Crop Areas
Crop areas +
Example: how do crop areas expose to climate change?
UDORNTHANI
NONGBUALAMPHU
KHONKAEN
LOEI
NONGKHAI
Example: Crop area in which provinces are in drought risk?
Crop expose to drought
risk
Which provinces are at risk in each sector?
Province-based crop expose to
drought risk level
Proportion of crop area
in each province
Severity levels
weighted by exposure
GIS Zone stat
GIS Zone
histogram
+
Pixel-based exposure level
EE
Crop
EEProvince-based exposure level
GIS
S ensitivity
Sensitivity indicators for human settlement?
Somethings can indicate sensitivity numerically?
Population Density Gross Provincial Product
Number of Megaprojects in the
province
Priority or Hierarchy of cities
S ensitivityPopulation Density Gross Provincial Product
Megaprojects in the province Priority or Hierarchy of cities
A daptive capacity
Adaptive capacity indicators for human settlement?
Somethings can point to the strength of area to adapt?
Human Achievement Index (HAI)
Proportion of urbanised area and
other land uses
including 8 main indicators with more 30 indices such as Health index, Life & livelihood index etc. http://www.undp.org/content/dam/thailand/docs/NHDR2010.pdf
A daptive capacityHuman Achievement Index (HAI)
Proportion of urbanised area and other land uses
Settlement and Human Security
S
EE
A
Impact
S
EE
Vulnerability
A
Settlement and Human Security
Discussion on vulnerability pattern of Thailand
Tourism
Agriculture and Food Security
Health
Settlement and Human Security
Natural Resources
Vulnerability of
Vulnerability map
Vulnerability maps 2015
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
2035
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
Vulnerability maps
2055
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
Vulnerability maps
11 highest vulnerability of Thailand
2558
Bangkok
Nakornsawan
Khonkaen
Nakornratchasrima
Surin
Ubonratchathani
Burirum
Kampaengphet
Srisaket
Udornthani
2.5 2.675 2.85 3.025 3.2
2558
Bangkok
Nakornsawan
Khonkaen
Nakornratchasrima
Surin
Ubonratchathani
Burirum
Kampaengphet
Srisaket
Udornthani
2.675 2.85 3.025 3.2
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
Vulnerability cluster
Group A
Agriculture > Settlement > Natural Resources > Health
Group B
Settlement > Tourism > Natural Resources
Group C
Health > Agriculture > Natural Resources
Group D
Settlement > Tourism
Group E
Natural Resources
Summary
To assess vulnerability, it is necessary to
simulate the future climate change,
model the exposures of the sector to risks based on predicted climate data,
choose sensitivity indicators and
find adaptive capacity of the area.
GIS is a powerful tool to analyse and visualise the vulnerability in spatial sense.
Thank you.
http://ncegg.info/cc_project