climate change - meteorologists in action c y lam hong kong observatory

Climate Change- Meteorologists in Action

C Y Lam

Hong Kong Observatory

Paris, 2 February 2007

• IPCC – The evidence for human-caused global warming is now “unequivocal”.

• Now accepted by most, taken for granted

• But, it has taken three decades to reach this position.

(background figure after IPCC, 2007)

The 30-year Journey

330 ppm

380 ppm

WMO & Meteorologists

• Rational approach: data & research

• Engagement: partners & stakeholders, impacts & responses

• Community level: attitude change, teach & preach

1st WMO statement, 1976

• Carbon dioxide – 330 ppm

• Accumulation of carbon dioxide – potential impact on climate vs natural variability

• Food as key issue, other disruptions too

1st World Climate Conference, 1979(WMO, UNEP, FAO UNESCO, WHO)

• “a gradual warming of the lower atmosphere appears plausible”

• “some effects …. detectable before the end of this century”

• Declaration: urgent actions to improve knowledge and to foresee & prevent potential man-made changes

WMO World Climate Programme, 1979

• Data

• Applications

• Research

• Impacts on human activities

Multiple international partners

Data• WMO Global Observing System – based on national

meteorological services

• WMO Global Atmospheric Watch – specialized network to measure atmospheric composition

• Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), 1992 – WMO, IOC-UNESCO,UNEP, ICSU

• 380 ppm, 0.74°C/100 years (IPCC, 2007)

Research

• World Climate Research Programme, 1985

• WMO, ICSU, IOC-UNESCO

• Large scale projects, all climate components

• Underpins UNFCCC & IPCC assessments

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change WMO & UNEP,1988

• Assessment reports based on published literature, covering:– state of climate– potential impact– policy options in response

• 1st report, 1990; 4th report 2007

2nd World Climate Conference, 1990(WMO, UNEP, UNESCO, IOC, FAO, ICSU)

• Carbon dioxide 350 ppm

• After 1st IPCC Assessment Report

• Ministerial Declaration:– noted unprecedented rate of climate change

predicted by IPCC – association with greenhouse gases– call for negotiations →UNFCCC 1992– well-informed public

(background figure after IPCC, 2007)

The Long Journey

+20ppm

30 years after 1st WMO Statement

• IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

– “warming of the climate system is unequivocal”

– “very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”

(background figure after IPCC, 2007)

The Long Journey

“unequivocal”after

+50 ppm

↑30-year

wait↓

Current general acceptance of human-induced climate change

• It came about not by accident

• But by meteorologists

– sounding the alarm 30 years ago

– organizing observations & research

– engaging partners & stakeholders

Reaching Out- Teach and Preach

• A well-informed public – the responsibility of meteorological services working at the “local” level

• Must be based on– Observations– Understanding of the phenomenon– Projections into the future

Hong Kong Observatory

• Records since 1884

• Announced observed trends

• Also urbanization effects

• Projections for 21st century

Relating to people

People don’t appreciate :

“3.5°C rise in temperature in 21st century”

“Temperature varies more than this in a day.

What is the problem?”

“No winter by the end of the century”

“Less than one cold day per winter.”

“cold winter no more”

Hong Kong, August 2004

Reaching out to people

press conference radio &TV

openday

The public & green groups

partnering withgreen groups

lectures for students

public lectures

Road blocks

• Low public interest relative to economic and social issues

• Lack of sense of being “immediate” and “close”

• “Small city” psychology, but actually 0.1% of world population

More teaching and preaching

• Information on trend, potential impacts, basic causes and what people can do

• A matter of attitude and life style

• Education package & school activities

• More partners

Meteorologists – not purely scientists

• We sounded the alarm; now we should enable people to respond.

• Reach out, with clear message for people.

• Climate change is multi-disciplinary by nature; engage full spectrum of partners.

(background figure after IPCC, 2007)

Another 30 years for action?

“unequivocal”after

+50 ppm

↑30-year

wait↓

WMO & meteorologistswill act together with all

to stop the worlddrifting irreversibly into a state

unsuitable for human habitation.We cannot wait for

another 30 years.