climate change: extreme weather - adaptation & mitigation

Climate Webinars for Educators:

Extreme WeatherClimate Change Impact, Adaptation and Mitigation

April 16, 2014

Dr. Patricia Romero-Lankao and Dr. Kevin TrenberthNational Center for Atmospheric Research

Moderation and Organization:Deb Morrison & Dr. Anne GoldUniversity of Colorado Boulder & Cooperative Institute for Research Environmental Sciences

Produced by Kit Seeborg for Learn More About ClimateRecorded at ATLAS Institute, University of Colorado Boulder

edf.org

What is climate change?

How do we know it is happening?

Data from Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Lab., NOAA. Data prior to 1974 from C. Keeling, Scripps Inst. Oceanogr.

Changing atmospheric composition: CO2

Mauna Loa, Hawaii

Rate increasing

ppm390380370360350340330320310

1960 1970 1980 1990 . 2000 2010

Global temperature and carbon dioxide: anomalies through 2013

Base period 1900-99; data from NOAATrenberth and Fasullo 2013 updated

Global Warming is UnequivocalIPCC AR5

Since 1970, rise in: Decrease in: Global surface temperatures - NH Snow extent Tropospheric temperatures - Arctic sea ice Global SSTs, ocean Ts - Glaciers Global sea level - Cold

temperatures Water vapor Rainfall intensity Precipitation extratropics Hurricane intensity Drought Extreme high temperatures Heat waves Ocean acidity

Website forClimate Science for Educators Webinars

https://sites.google.com/site/climatescienc

ewebinars/extreme-weather

What are weather extremes?

How are they defined in terms of social impact?

What kinds of data do social scientists use?

Source: Skeptical Science

Changes in extremesMatter most for society and human health

With a warming climate: More high temperatures, heat waves Wild fires and other consequences Fewer cold extremes.

More extremes in hydrological cycle: More intense precipitation Longer dry spells

Increased risk of flooding and drought More intense storms, hurricanes, tornadoes

Major challenges for a water manager

Risk is the possibility of negative outcomes resulting from the combination of

hazards and capacities of exposed populations and

the interaction of broader societal and environmental processes that shape their experience of risk

Hazards are probable or looming stresses people are exposed to

• One-off extremes• Slow-onset events• Subtle everyday threats

In our Framework

Patricia Romero-Lankao, Sara Hughes, Jorgelina Hardoy, Hua Qin, Angélica Rosas-Huerta, Roxana Bórquez, Andrea Lampis (2012) and (2013)

Vulnerability/capacity • Individual features (age)• Household assets (education,

income, housing, social networks)

• Infrastructures/built environment• Governance (territorial planning,

services, pollution controls, ..)

(1) Text color denotes categories of vulnerability dimensions. Green = Hazard; Yellow = Exposure; Red = Sensitivity; Blue = Adaptive capacity/adaptation

(2) Symbols in parentheses = direction of relationship between vulnerability and outcome (medium or high level of agreement only)

+ positive relationship (increases vulnerability); - negative relationship (decreases vulnerability); ~ no relationship

Determinants of urban populations vulnerability to temperature across 224 cities globally

Source: Patricia Romero Lankao, Hua Qin and Katie Dickinson 2012

What types of impacts of climate change have been observed?

How well do we understand the risk and how predictable are events?

Climate Change Impacts

1) Climate change is not necessarily bad. There are always winners and losers.In some regions, a longer growing season is a big benefit.

2) But rapid climate change is always bad because it is disruptive.

3) We are adapted to our current climate, almost by definition. So in that sense change is bad.

4) But increases in extremes are hard to manage, and so certain changes can be costly and have big impacts:

heat waves, wild fires, heavy rains, floods, storms, drought.

Observed impacts of climate change

Widespread & consequential:

Increases in heat waves

Increases in heavy precipitation

Decreases in frost days

Earlier peak of snowmelt run-off

Declines in snowpack

Source: Romero-Lankao et al.,2014

Wilton Conn. Heatwave July 2013 Alex von KleydorffUS Today

Northern Rocky Mountains Scientific American.com

Impacts from recent climate-related extremes in North America reveal significant vulnerability of places & people

Figure: a map (bottom) population density at 1km resolution = exposure; a map (top) significant weather events during 1993-2012 illustrating vulnerability; four panels (right) trends in vulnerability indicators. Source: Romero-Lankao et al., 2014

Projected Changes in Extremes

What is the risk of extreme events to occur?

How well do we understand the risk?

How confident are scientists?

Likelihood vs Confidence

Likelihood Level of Confidence≠ The chance of a defined outcome occurring in the

physical world.

Is estimated using expert judgment.

The degree of understanding and / or

consensus among experts.

Is a statement about expert judgment.

Distinct concepts

IPCC Manning

Key Risks: Criteria

• Impact– Large magnitude

– High probability

– Irreversibility

• Vulnerability or exposure

• Limited mitigation or adaptation potential

Sources: www.hcn.org and http://photos.denverpost.com

http://www.poweringthewest.org/2013/06/14/historic-boulder-canyon

Can you discuss a couple examples of impacts of extreme

weather in the US?

Super Storm Sandy: Oct 29-31, 2012.It was more intense with stronger winds because of climate change

Sea level is higher => Much greater damage

Hybrid storm:Over $70B damages>110 lives lost

U.S. Temperatures: 2012 Hottest year on record

362 all time record Highs 3,527 monthly weather records0 record lows

U.S. Drought and wildfires June 2013

Dust storm Lamar, CO(June 15, Denver Post)

Black Forest wildfire CO: >511 homes burned

You have shared some examples from the US – what is the effect of climate change on other parts of

the world?

Locations of tree mortality induced by substantial drought and heat (1970-2011)

Source IPCC 2014 Technical Summary

2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089

20

40

60

80

100

PERC

ENTA

GE O

FYI

ELD

PROJ

ECTI

ONS

02090-2109

0 – -5%

-5 – -10%

-10 – -25%

-25 – -50%

-50 – -100%

50 – 100%

25 – 50%

10 – 25%

5 – 10%

0 – 5%

Range of Yield Change

Increasein Yield

Decreasein Yield

Calgary, AlbertaCanadaFlooding21-22 June 2013

What are strategies for adaptation to and mitigation of climate

change?

Approaches for managing the risks of

climate change

Climate Information System

Trenberth 2008

Climate-change adaptation as an iterative risk management process with multiple feedbacks

Source: IPCC 2014 Summary for Policy Makers

What are challenges with respect to adaptation to and mitigation of

climate change?

IPCC reports are scientific in nature but often result in

politically charged discussion – Can you speak to the tension?

Where do we go from here?

Website forClimate Science for Educators Webinars

https://sites.google.com/site/climatescienc

ewebinars/extreme-weather

Climate Webinars for Educators:Extreme Weather

Climate Change Impact, Adaptation and MitigationApril 16, 2014

Dr. Patricia Romero-Lankao and Dr. Kevin TrenberthNational Center for Atmospheric Research

Moderation and Organization:Deb Morrison & Dr. Anne GoldUniversity of Colorado Boulder & Cooperative Institute for Research Environmental Sciences

Produced by Kit Seeborg for Learn More About ClimateRecorded at ATLAS Institute, University of Colorado Boulder