climate change and global warming introduction — global issues

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ClimateChangeandGlobalWarmingIntroduction

byAnupShah ThisPageLastUpdatedSunday,February01,2015

Thispage:http://www.globalissues.org/article/233/climatechangeandglobalwarmingintroduction.

Toprintallinformatione.g.expandedsidenotes,showsalternativelinks,usetheprintversion:

http://www.globalissues.org/print/article/233

Thiswebpagehasthefollowingsubsections:

1. WhatisGlobalWarmingandClimateChange?1. WhatarethemainindicatorsofClimateChange?2. WhatistheGreenhouseEffect?3. TheGreenhouseeffectisnatural.Whatdowehavetodowithit?4. Theclimatehasalwaysvariedinthepast.Howisthisanydifferent?5. DoesntrecentrecordcoldweatherdisproveGlobalWarming?6. Hasglobalwarmingpausedduetorecentsurfacetemperaturedrops?7. Mostglobalwarmingisgoingintotheoceans8. 2014warmestyearsincerecordsbegan

2. WhataretheimpactsofGlobalWarming?1. Rapidchangesinglobaltemperature2. Smallaverageglobaltemperaturechangecanhaveabigimpact3. ExtremeWeatherPatterns

1. Superstorms2. Extremeweathereventsontheincrease

4. EcosystemImpacts5. RisingSeaLevels6. Increasingoceanacidification7. IncreaseinPestsandDisease8. FailingAgriculturalOutputIncreaseinWorldHunger9. Agricultureandlivelihoodsarealreadybeingaffected10. Womenfacebruntofclimatechangeimpacts

3. Greenhousegasesandemissionsresultingfromhumanactivity1. DifferencesinGreenhouseGasEmissionAroundtheWorld

2. TheUnitedStatesistheWorldsLargestEmitterofGreenhouseGasesPerCapita3. Thepreviously15memberEuropeanUnionisalsolargeEmitter4. StallingKyotoProtocolGetsPushbyRussia5. CanadapullsoutofKyoto6. Richnationemissionshavebeenrising7. RichNationsHave"Outsourced"TheirCarbonEmissions8. DevelopingCountriesAffectedMost9. Greenhousegasemissionscontinuetorise

4. SkepticismonGlobalWarmingorThatitcanbehumaninduced1. BushAdministrationAccusedofSilencingitsownClimateScientists

5. ManySourcesOfGreenhouseGasesBeingDiscovered6. Warminghappeningmorequicklythanpredicted

WhatisGlobalWarmingandClimateChange?

Globalwarmingandclimatechangerefertoanincreaseinaverageglobaltemperatures.Naturaleventsandhumanactivitiesarebelievedtobecontributingtoanincreaseinaverageglobaltemperatures.ThisiscausedprimarilybyincreasesingreenhousegasessuchasCarbonDioxide(CO2).

Awarmingplanetthusleadstoachangeinclimatewhichcanaffectweatherinvariousways,asdiscussedfurtherbelow.

WhatarethemainindicatorsofClimateChange?

AsexplainedbytheUSagency,theNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),thereare7indicatorsthatwouldbeexpectedtoincreaseinawarmingworld(andtheyare),and3indicatorswouldbeexpectedtodecrease(andtheyare):

Tenindicatorsforawarmingworld,PastDecadeWarmestonRecordAccordingtoScientistsin48Countries,NOAA,July28,2010

WhatistheGreenhouseEffect?

Thetermgreenhouseisusedinconjunctionwiththephenomenonknownasthegreenhouseeffect.

Energyfromthesundrivestheearthsweatherandclimate,andheatstheearthssurfaceInturn,theearthradiatesenergybackintospaceSomeatmosphericgases(watervapor,carbondioxide,andothergases)trapsomeoftheoutgoingenergy,retainingheatsomewhatliketheglasspanelsofagreenhouseThesegasesarethereforeknownasgreenhousegasesThegreenhouseeffectistheriseintemperatureonEarthascertaingasesintheatmospheretrapenergy.

Imagesource:GreenhouseEffect,Wikipedia(Linkincludesdetailedexplanationoftheaboveimage).Note,imageaboveexpressesenergyexchangesin

wattspersquaremeter(W/m )

Sixmaingreenhousegasesarecarbondioxide(CO2),methane(CH4)(whichis20timesaspotenta

greenhousegasascarbondioxide)andnitrousoxide(N2O),plusthreefluorinatedindustrialgases:

hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs),perfluorocarbons(PFCs)andsulphurhexafluoride(SF6).Watervaporisalso

consideredagreenhousegas.

TheGreenhouseeffectisnatural.Whatdowehavetodowithit?

Manyofthesegreenhousegasesareactuallylifeenabling,forwithoutthem,heatwouldescapebackintospaceandtheEarthsaveragetemperaturewouldbealotcolder.

2

However,ifthegreenhouseeffectbecomesstronger,thenmoreheatgetstrappedthanneeded,andtheEarthmightbecomelesshabitableforhumans,plantsandanimals.

Carbondioxide,thoughnotthemostpotentofgreenhousegases,isthemostsignificantone.Humanactivityhascausedanimbalanceinthenaturalcycleofthegreenhouseeffectandrelatedprocesses.NASAsEarthObservatoryisworthquotingtheeffecthumanactivityishavingonthenaturalcarboncycle,forexample:

InadditiontothenaturalfluxesofcarbonthroughtheEarthsystem,anthropogenic(human)activities,particularlyfossilfuelburninganddeforestation,arealsoreleasingcarbondioxideintotheatmosphere.

WhenweminecoalandextractoilfromtheEarthscrust,andthenburnthesefossilfuelsfortransportation,heating,cooking,electricity,andmanufacturing,weareeffectivelymovingcarbonmorerapidlyintotheatmospherethanisbeingremovednaturallythroughthesedimentationofcarbon,ultimatelycausingatmosphericcarbondioxideconcentrationstoincrease.

Also,byclearingforeststosupportagriculture,wearetransferringcarbonfromlivingbiomassintotheatmosphere(drywoodisabout50percentcarbon).

Theresultisthathumansareaddingeverincreasingamountsofextracarbondioxideintotheatmosphere.Becauseofthis,atmosphericcarbondioxideconcentrationsarehighertodaythantheyhavebeenoverthelasthalfmillionyearsorlonger.

TheCarbonCycleTheHumanRole,EarthObservatory,NASA

Anotherwayoflookingatthisiswithasimpleanalogy:considersaltandhumanhealth:

AsmallamountofsaltisessentialforhumanlifeSlightlymoresaltinourdietoftenmakesfoodtastierToomuchsaltcanbeharmfultoourhealth.

Inasimilarway,greenhousegasesareessentialforourplanettheplanetmaybeabletodealwithslightlyincreasedlevelsofsuchgases,buttoomuchwillaffectthehealthofthewholeplanet.

Imagesource:NASA.(Note,valuesshownrepresentCarbonGigatonsbeingabsorbedandreleased)

Theotherdifferencebetweenthenaturalcarboncycleandhumaninducedclimatechangeisthatthelatterisrapid.Thismeansthatecosystemshavelesschanceofadaptingtothechangesthatwillresultandsotheeffectsfeltwillbeworseandmoredramaticitthingscontinuealongthecurrenttrajectory.

Theclimatehasalwaysvariedinthepast.Howisthisanydifferent?

ThroughoutEarthshistorytheclimatehasvaried,sometimesconsiderably.Pastwarmingdoesnotautomaticallymeanthattodayswarmingisthereforealsonatural.Recentwarminghasbeenshowntobeduetohumanindustrializationprocesses.

JohnCook,writingthepopularSkepticalScienceblog,summarizesthekeyindicatorsofahumanfingerprintonclimatechange:

JohnCook,10IndicatorsofaHumanFingerprintonClimateChange,SkepticalScience,July30,2010

Thisgraph,basedonthecomparisonofatmosphericsamplescontainedinicecoresandmorerecentdirectmeasurements,providesevidencethatatmosphericCO2hasincreasedsincetheIndustrialRevolution:

(Source:NOAA)via:ClimateChange:Howdoweknow?NASA,accessedOctober27,2009

TheabovecovershundredsofthousandsofyearsandshowshowatmosphericCO2levelshave

dramaticallyincreasedinrecentyears.Ifwezoominonjustthepast250years,weseethefollowing:

GlobalCO2emissions,17512010,CarbonDioxideInformationAnalysisCenter(CDIAC),2013,lastaccessedFebruary1,2015.DOI:10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2013

NASAsGoddardInstituteofSpaceStudies(GISS)tracksatmosphericglobaltemperatureclimatetrends.Asenvironmentalengineer,DKellyODay,explainedonProcessingTrends.com(linknolongeravailable):Tofacilitateassessmentsoflongtermtrends,climatologistscomparethemeanforabaseperiodwiththeannualmean.Differencesbetweentheannualmeanandbaselinemeanarecalledanomalies.GISSusesthe19511980periodfortheirbaselineperiod.Theyusethedifferencebetweentheannualmeanandthebaselinemeantodeterminetheglobaltemperatureanomalyfortheyear.

ODayoriginallyproducedachartshowingglobaltemperatureanomaliesbetween1800and2006usingdatafromNASA.Iupdatedthechartheprovidedtoincluderecentlyupdateddataupto2014:

Sources:GISSSurfaceTemperatureAnalysis,NASA,accessedJanuary25,2015Globaltemperature,18002006,ProcessTrends.com,accessedOctober27,2009(linknolongeravailable)

Inthe18801935period,thetemperatureanomalywasconsistentlynegative.Incontrast,thesince1980theanomalyhasbeenconsistentlypositive.The1909temperatureanomaly(0.47oC)wasthelowestyearonrecord.Since1909,globaltemperaturehaswarmed,withthemostrecentyearsshowingthehighestanomaliesof+0.6oCinthepast120years.

ANASAsGISSanimationalsoshowshowmostpartsoftheworldhaveexperiencedthiswarming,recently:

Video:Globaltemperatureshavewarmedsignificantlysince1880,thebeginningofwhatscientistscallthemodernrecord.Atthistime,thecoverageprovidedbyweatherstationsallowedforessentiallyglobaltemperaturedata.Asgreenhousegasemissionsfromenergyproduction,industryandvehicles

haveincreased,temperatureshaveclimbed,mostnotablysincethelate1970s.Source:NASAFinds2014WarmestYearinModernRecord,NASAGoddard

0:30

InstituteforSpaceStudies,January16,2015

And,asSirDavidAttenboroughexplains,naturalvariabilityalonedoesnotexplainrecenttemperaturerise:

Video:SirDavidAttenborough:TheTruthAboutClimateChange,October22,2006

Aswellasthelinksabove,seealsoSkepticalScience,which,whileexaminingtheargumentsofglobalwarmingskepticism,providesinformationoncausesofanthropogenicglobalwarming.

DoesntrecentrecordcoldweatherdisproveGlobalWarming?

Indifferentpartsoftheworld,therehavebeenvariousweathereventsthatatfirstthoughtwouldquestionglobalwarming.Forexample,someregionshaveexperiencedextremelycoldwinters(sometimesrecordbreaking),whileothershaveexperiencedheavyrain,etc.

Theconfusionthatsometimesarisesisthedifferencebetweenclimatechangeandweatherpatterns.Weatherpatternsdescribeshorttermevents,whileclimatechangeisalongerprocessthataffectstheweather.Awarmingplanetisactuallyconsistentwithincreasingcold,increasingrainandotherextremes,asanoverallwarmerplanetchangesweatherpatternseverywhereatalltimesoftheyear.

Togetanideaofhowlookingatshorttermchangesonlycanleadtoaconclusionthatglobalwarminghasstopped,ordoesntexist,seeAldenGriffithshasglobalwarmingstopped?

(Asanaside,thosecryingfoulofglobalwarmingclaimswhengoingthroughextremelycoldweatherinEuropeforexamplein2010,laterfoundtheirsummerstobefullofheatwaves.Thepointhereisthataspecificshortperiodsuchasacoldwinterorevenahotsummerisnotproofalonethatglobalwarminghasstopped(orincreased)shorttermvariabilitycanmasklongertermtrends.)

Thismeans,forexample,increasingtemperaturescanactuallymeanmoresnowfallatleastuntilitbecomestoowarmforsignificantsnowfalltohappen.

Theadditionalconcern,asmeteorologyprofessorScottMandiaexplains,itcantakedecadesfortheclimatetemperaturestoincreaseinresponsetoincreasedgreenhousegasemissions.Soupuntilnow,perhapsithasbeeneasierforskepticstodenyclimatechangeisoccurringorthathumansareresponsible.

Hasglobalwarmingpausedduetorecentsurfacetemperaturedrops?

AstheIPCCsfifthmajorreportdrawstoaconclusionin2013itnotesthatscientistshaveincreasedtheircertaintyofhumaninducedwarmingto95%.Itwasextremelylikelythathumaninfluencehasbeenthe

dominantcauseoftheobservedwarmingsincethemid20thcentury,assummarized bytheIPCC.

Astheirfifthreportstartedtocomeout,anumberofclimateskepticsandmediaoutletswerearguingthattheslowdownshowninsurfacetemperaturesinrecentyearsprovedglobalwarminghadstoppedorpaused.Yet,thisslowdownwasinsurfacetemperaturesonlyeventhoughtheoveralltrend(usingamorelongerperiodwhichismorevalidinclimatechangeanalysis)showedanincreaseintemperatures.Two

simplegraphshelpillustratethis:

Source:ClimateChange2013:ThePhysicalScienceBasis,IPCCWorkingGroupIcontributiontotheIPCCFifthAssessmentReport,September2013.Chapter3.[Note,

graphmodifiedtoaddthezoomedinportionhighlightingtheareaskepticsusetoclaimclimatechangehasstopped.]

ThenextgraphisananimationfromSkepticalScienceshowinghowtimeframestointerpretclimatedataissignificant:

Source:TheEscalator,SkepticalScience,lastaccessedOctober19,2013

ForfurtherinformationontheaboveseealsoDoestheglobalwarmingpausemeanwhatyouthinkitmeans?,fromSkepticalScience.

Mostglobalwarmingisgoingintotheoceans

Asthisinfographicshows,mostofthewarmingisgoingintotheoceans:

Source:JohnCook,Infographiconwhereglobalwarmingisgoing,SkepticalScience.com,January20,2011(furthernotesonthesourcedataused)

OveHoeghGuldbergNCSEtalkfromJohnBruno PLUS

16:47

Video:OveHoeghGuldbergNCSEtalkonclimatechangeimpactsonoceanecosystems,Climate

Shifts,January21,2011.

AsJohnCook,creatorofthegraphicabovesays(seeabovelink),Justasittakestimeforacupofcoffeetoreleaseheatintotheair,sotoittakestimefortheoceantoreleaseitsheatintotheatmosphere..

TheimplicationsofthisisfurtherexplainedwithInterPressServicesfreezeranalogy:TheworldsnorthernfreezerisonrapiddefrostaslargevolumesofwarmwaterarepouringintotheArcticOcean,speedingthemeltofseaice.

Indeed,asthischartalsoshows,thewarmingintheoceanshasbeenoccurringforquitesometime:

Source:JohnCook,TheEarthcontinuestobuildupheat,SkepticalScience,October12,2011

OneofJohnBrunoscolleagues,OveHoeghGuldberg,talksabouttheimpactclimatechangewillhaveonoceanecosystems.Asummaryofthevideoheresaysthat

Rapidlyrisinggreenhousegasconcentrationsaredrivingoceansystemstowardconditionsnotseenformillionsofyears,withanassociatedriskoffundamentalandirreversibleecologicaltransformation.Changesinbiologicalfunctionintheoceancausedbyanthropogenicclimatechangegofarbeyonddeath,extinctionsandhabitatloss:fundamentalprocessesarebeingaltered,communityassemblagesarebeingreorganizedandecologicalsurprisesarelikely.

D.SalmonsalsohasapostatSkepticalSciencethatexplainstheimpactofwarmingArcticsrelationtotheverycoldrecentwintersfurther,usingthefollowingNASAmap:

Source:GISSSurfaceTemperatureAnalysis,NASAGoddardInstituteforSpaceStudies,accessedJanuary30,2011

AsSalmonsexplains,

theArctichasbeenheatingup,andstudiesshowthatishappeningattwotothreetimestheglobalaverage.ThisrisingtemperatureintheArctichasservedtoreducetheregionsfloatingicelayerbymorethan20%.Andasyouwouldexpect,whenthereflectiveiceandsnowlayerisstrippedaway,itleavesadarkbluesea.

Now,whatdoestheeffectofthedarkblueseabeingexposedhaveontheArcticarea?Well,theiceandsnowlayerreflectsthemajorityofthesunsraysharmlesslybackintospace.Butthedarkblueoftheexposedseaabsorbstherays,aidingtheheatingprocess.

D.Salmons,GlobalWarmingandColdWinters,SkepticalScience,January15,2011

2014warmestyearsincerecordsbegan

NASAsGISSSurfaceTemperatureAnalysisgraphshownearlier(from1800to2014)showsthattemperatureanomaliessince1980haveallbeenpositivei.e.ithasbeenconstantlyhotterthannormal.

Asthesamedatashows,thehottestyearshaveallbeensince1998:

Rank1=Warmest18802014

Year AnomalyC AnomalyF

1 2014 0.69 1.24

2(tie) 2010 0.65 1.17

2(tie) 2005 0.65 1.17

4 1998 0.63 1.13

5(tie) 2013 0.62 1.12

Source:NOAANationalClimaticDataCenter,StateoftheClimate:GlobalAnalysisforAnnual2014,publishedonlineDecember2014,retrievedonJanuary25,2015

5(tie) 2003 0.62 1.12

7 2002 0.61 1.10

8 2006 0.60 1.08

9(tie) 2009 0.59 1.06

9(tie) 2007 0.59 1.06

WhataretheimpactsofGlobalWarming?

Fordecades,greenhousegases,suchascarbondioxidehavebeenincreasingintheatmosphere.Butwhydoesthatmatter?Wontwarmerweatherbenicerforeveryone?

Rapidchangesinglobaltemperature

IncreasedgreenhousegasesandthegreenhouseeffecthascontributedtoanoverallwarmingoftheEarthsclimate,leadingtoaglobalwarming(eventhoughsomeregionsmayexperiencecooling,orwetterweather,whilethetemperatureoftheplanetonaveragewouldrise).

Consideralsothefollowing:

WhileyeartoyearchangesintemperatureoftenreflectnaturalclimaticvariationssuchasElNio/LaNiaevents,changesinaveragetemperaturefromdecadetodecadereveallongtermtrendssuchasglobalwarming.Eachofthelastthreedecadeshasbeenmuchwarmerthanthedecadebefore.Atthetime,the1980swasthehottestdecadeonrecord.Inthe1990s,everyyearwaswarmerthantheaverageofthepreviousdecade.The2000swerewarmerstill.

PastDecadeWarmestonRecordAccordingtoScientistsin48Countries,NationalOceanandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),July28,2010

Attheendofthe1990s,theWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)hadnotedthatnotonlywasthe1990sthewarmestdecadebutatthetime,the1900swasthewarmestcenturyduringthelast1,000years.

Itistherapidpaceatwhichthetemperaturewillrisethatwillresultinmanynegativeimpactstohumansandtheenvironmentandthiswhythereissuchaworldwideconcern.

Smallaverageglobaltemperaturechangecanhaveabigimpact

Climatescientistsadmitthatthechancesoftheworldkeepingaverageglobaltemperatureatcurrentlevelsarenotgoingtobepossible(humanityhasdonelittletoaddressthingsinthepastcoupleofdecadesthattheseconcernshavebeenknownabout).

So,now,thereisapushtocontaintemperaturerisestoanaverage2Cincrease(asanaverage,thismeanssomeregionsmaygethighertemperaturesandothers,lower).

Evenjusta2Cincreasecanhaveimpactsaroundtheworldtobiodiversity,agriculture,theoceansetc(detailedfurtherbelow).Butintheleaduptoimportantglobalclimatetalksattheendof2009,somedelegatesareskepticalthattemperaturerisescanbecontainedtoa2Crise(orC02levelsof350ppm).

OnOctober22,2009,theBritishGovernmentandtheUKsMetOffice(UKsNationalWeatherService)unveiledanewmap,showingwhatwouldhappenifweallowedaverageglobaltemperaturestoincreaseto4Cabovepreindustriallevels(thehighendoftheUNIPCCprojections):

Video:Theimpactofaglobaltemperatureriseof4C(7F),UKMetOffice,October22,2009(Seelargermap)

Inshort,wewouldnotbeabletocopewitha4Caverageincrease.

AstheMetOfficenoted,

Thepostershowsthatafourdegreeaveragerisewillnotbespreaduniformlyacrosstheglobe.Thelandwillheatupmorequicklythanthesea,andhighlatitudes,particularlytheArctic,willhavelargertemperatureincreases.Theaveragelandtemperaturewillbe5.5degreesabovepreindustriallevels.

Theimpactsonhumanactivityshownonthemapareonlyaselection.

Agriculturalyieldsareexpectedtodecreaseforallmajorcerealcropsinallmajorregionsofproduction.HalfofallHimalayanglacierswillbesignificantlyreducedby2050,leadingto23%ofthepopulationofChinabeingdeprivedofthevitaldryseasonglacialmeltwatersource.

Theimpactofaglobaltemperatureriseof4C(7F),UKMetOffice,October22,2009

SideNote

ExtremeWeatherPatterns

Mostscientistsbelievethatthewarmingoftheclimatewillleadtomoreextremeweatherpatternssuchas:

MorehurricanesanddroughtLongerspellsofdryheatorintenserain(dependingonwhereyouareintheworld)ScientistshavepointedoutthatNorthernEuropecouldbeseverelyaffectedwithcolderweatherifclimatechangecontinues,asthearcticbeginstomeltandsendfresherwatersfurthersouth.ItwouldeffectivelycutofftheGulfStreamthatbringswarmthfromtheGulfofMexico,keepingcountriessuchasBritainwarmerthanexpectedInSouthAsia,theHimalayanglacierscouldretreatcausingwaterscarcityinthelongrun.

Whilemanyenvironmentalgroupshavebeenwarningaboutextremeweatherconditionsforafewyears,theWorldMeteorologicalOrganizationannouncedinJuly2003thatRecentscientificassessmentsindicatethat,astheglobaltemperaturescontinuetowarmduetoclimatechange,thenumberandintensityofextremeeventsmightincrease.

TheWMOalsonotesthatNewrecordextremeeventsoccureveryyearsomewhereintheglobe,butinrecentyearsthenumberofsuchextremeshavebeenincreasing.(TheWMOlimitsthedefinitionofextremeeventstohightemperatures,lowtemperaturesandhighrainfallamountsanddroughts.)TheU.KsIndependentnewspaperdescribedtheWMOsannouncementasunprecedentedandastonishingbecauseitcamefromarespectedUnitedNationsorganizationnotanenvironmentalgroup!

Superstorms

Mentionedfurtherabovewastheconcernthatmorehurricanescouldresult.ThelinkusedwasfromtheenvironmentalorganizationWWF,writtenbackin1999.InAugust/September2004awaveofseverehurricanesleftmanyCaribbeanislandsandpartsofSouthEasternUnitedStatesdevastated.IntheCaribbeanmanyliveswerelostandtherewasimmensedamagetoentirecities.IntheU.S.manyliveswerelostaswell,someofthemostexpensivedamageresultedfromthesuccessivehurricanes.

Initswake,scientistshavereiteratedthatsuchsuperstormsmaybeasignofthingstocome.Globalwarmingmayspawnmoresuperstorms,InterPressService(IPS)notes.

InterviewingabiologicaloceanographyprofessoratHarvardUniversity,IPSnotesthattheworldsoceansareapproaching27degreesCorwarmerduringthesummer.Thisincreasestheoddsofmajorstorms.

Whenwaterreachessuchtemperatures,moreofitevaporates,priminghurricaneorcycloneformation.Onceborn,ahurricaneneedsonlywarmwatertobuildandmaintainitsstrengthandintensity.

Furthermore,asemissionsofgreenhousegasescontinuetotrapmoreandmoreofthesunsenergy,thatenergyhastobedissipated,resultinginstrongerstorms,moreintenseprecipitationandhigherwinds.

Thereisabundantevidenceofanunprecedentednumberofsevereweathereventsinthepastdecade,[professorofbiologicaloceanographyatHarvardUniversity,James]McCarthysays.In1998,HurricaneMitchkillednearly20,000peopleinCentralAmerica,andmorethan4,000peoplediedduringdisastrousfloodinginChina.Bangladeshsufferedsomeofitsworstfloodseverthefollowingyear,asdidVenezuela.Europewashitwithrecordfloodsin2002,andthenarecordheatwavein2003.

Morerecently,BrazilwasstruckbythefirsteverrecordedhurricaneintheSouthAtlanticlastMarch.

Weatherrecordsarebeingsetallthetimenow.Wereinaneraofunprecedentedextremeweatherevents,McCarthysaid.

Historicalweatherpatternsarebecominglessusefulforpredictingthefutureconditionsbecauseglobalwarmingischangingoceanandatmosphericconditions.

In30to50yearstime,theEarthsweathergeneratingsystemwillbeentirelydifferent,hepredicted.

StephenLeahy,GlobalWarmingMaySpawnMoreSuperStorms,InterPressService,September20,2004

Extremeweathereventsontheincrease

Lookingat2010asawholeyearrevealedavarietyofextremeweatherevents.Apanelofclimateandweatherexpertsrankedthetop10globalweather/climateeventsof2010whichincludedheatwavestodroughtstonegativearcticoscillation(aclimatepatternwherecoldArcticairslidessouthwhilewarmerairmovesnorth,bringingsnowstormsandrecordcoldtemperaturestomuchoftheNorthernHemisphere)showthatavarietyofweathereventscanoccurasaresultofchangingclimate:

TopTenGlobalWeather/ClimateEventsof2010

Rank EventWhen

OccurredDescription

1

RussoEuropeanAsianHeatWaves

Summer

Aseveresummerspawneddrought,wildfiresandcropfailuresacrosswesternRussia,wheremorethan15,000peopledied.Alltimehightemperaturesoccurredinmanycitiesandnationsintheregion.ChinafacedlocustswarmsduringJuly.

2

2010as[near]warmestonrecord

CalendarYear

AccordingtoNOAA,thegloballyaveragedtemperaturefor2010willfinishamongthetwowarmest,andlikelythewarmest,onrecord.Threemonthsin2010werethewarmestonrecordforthatmonth.

3PakistaniFlooding

LateJulyintoAugust

RainfallrelatedtotheAsianMonsoonwasdisplacedunusuallywestward,andmorethanafootofrainfellacrossalargeareaoftheUpperIndusValley.SubsequentfloodingdowntheIndusRiverkilled1,600peopleanddisplacedmillions.

4ElNiotoLaNiaTransition

MidtoLateBorealSpring

ENSO,themostprominentandfarreachingpatternsofclimatevariability,sawahugeswinginmid2010.Only1973,1983and1998haveseenlargerwithinyearswings.

5NegativeArcticOscillation

DecemberFebruary

TheAOIndex,whichisstronglycorrelatedwithwintertimecoldairoutbreaks,reached4.27forFebruary,thelargestnegativeanomalysincerecordsbeganin1950.MajorcoldairoutbreaksoccurredthroughouttheNorthernHemisphere.

6BrazilianDrought

Ongoing

AseveredroughtparchingnorthernBrazilshrunktheRioNegro,oneoftheAmazonRiver'smostimportanttributaries,toitslowestlevelsincerecordsbeganin1902atitsconfluencewiththeAmazon.TheAmazon'sdepththerefellmorethan12feetbelowitsaverage.

7tie

HistoricallyInactiveNEPacificHurricane

May15 November30

TheNortheastPacificHurricaneSeasonwasoneoftheleastactiveonrecord,producedthefewestnamedstormsandhurricanesofthemodernera,andhadtheearliestcessationoftropicalactivity(Sep23)onrecord.

th

th

Source:TopTenGlobalWeather/ClimateEventsof2010NationalClimaticDataCenter,NOAA,December2010

TheselistswerecompiledandvotedonduringthefirstweekofDecember.Significantevents,suchastheextremewinterweatherinEuropeandthefloodinginAustraliaoccurredafterthisdate.Theseeventshavebeenincludedinanadditionalsectiontitled,HonorableMention,butmayhavewarrantedtoptenplacement.

Seasononrecord.

7tieHistoricN.HemisphericSnowRetreat

JanuarythroughJune

DespiteDecember2009havingthesecondlargestsnowcoverextentof

thesatelliterecord(mid1960s),themeltseasonwasferocious,contributingtospringfloodsintheNorthernU.S.andCanada.Followingtheearlyandpronouncedsnowmelt,theNorthAmerican,EurasianandHemisphericsnowcoverwasthesmallestonrecordforMayandJune2010.

9MinimumSeaIceExtent

MidSeptember

The2010seaiceminimumof4.9millionsqkmwasthethirdsmallestonrecord.Thelastfouryears(20072010)arethefoursmallestonrecord.TheNorthwestPassageandtheNorthernSeaRouteweresimultaneouslyicefreeinSeptember,afirstinmodernhistory.

10ChinaDrought

Firsthalfof2010

ApersistentdroughtcenteredintheYunanProvincewastoutedasperhapstheworstinthisregioninmorethan100years.Majorcroplossesandlackofdrinkingwatercreatedsevereproblemsforlocalresidents.

EcosystemImpacts

Withglobalwarmingontheincreaseandspecieshabitatsonthedecrease,thechancesforvariousecosystemstoadaptnaturallyarediminishing.

Manystudieshavepointedoutthattheratesofextinctionofanimalandplantspecies,andthetemperaturechangesaroundtheworldsincetheindustrialrevolution,havebeensignificantlydifferenttonormalexpectations.

Ananalysisofpopulationtrends,climatechange,increasingpollutionandemergingdiseasesfoundthat40percentofdeathsintheworldcouldbeattributedtoenvironmentalfactors.

JaanSuurkula,M.D.andchairmanofPhysiciansandScientistsforResponsibleApplicationofScienceandTechnology(PSRAST),paintsadirepicture,butnotesthatheisonlycitingobservationsandconclusionsfromestablishedexpertsandinstitutions.Thoseobservationsandconclusionsnotethatglobalwarmingwillleadtothefollowingsituations,amongstothers:

RapidglobalheatingaccordingtoaUSNationalAcademyofSciencewarningDramaticincreaseingreenhousegasemissionsOzonelossaggravatedbyglobalwarming

OzonelosslikelytoaggravateglobalwarmingWarmingoftheoceansleadstoincreasedgreenhousegassesPermafrostthawingwillaggravateglobalwarmingOceanicchangesobservedthatmayaggravatethesituationAviciouscirclewherebyeachproblemwillexacerbateotherproblemswhichwillfeedbackintoeachotherMassiveextinctionofspecieswillaggravatetheenvironmentalcrisisSuddencollapseofbiologicalandecologicalsystemsmayoccur,butwillhaveaveryslowrecoveryWhileeffectivemeasurescandecreaseglobalwarmingandotherproblemstheWorldcommunityhasrepeatedlyfailedtoestablishcooperation.

TheviciouscircleSuurkulareferstoisworthexpanding.Inhisownwords,butslightlyreformatted:

Theongoingaccumulationofgreenhousegassescausesincreasingglobalwarming.

Thiscausesamoreextensivedestructionofozoneinthepolarregionsbecauseofaccentuatedstratosphericcooling.

AnincreaseofozonedestructionincreasestheUVradiationthat,combinedwithhigheroceantemperature,causesareductionofthegiganticcarbondioxidetrappingmechanismoftheoceanicphytoplanktonbiomassThisaccentuatesthewarmingprocess.

Whenthewarminghasreachedacertainlevel,itwillreleasehugeamountsofgreenhousegassestrappedinthepermafrost.

Thiswillenhancetheglobalwarming,andthepolardestructionofozone,andsoon.

Theobserveddecreaseofthethermohalinecirculation[thevariousstreamsthattransportwarmandcoldwatersaroundtheworldandthereforehasanimportantstabilizingeffectonworldclimate]furtheraggravatesthesituation.

Thisisaglobalselfreinforcingviciouscircleacceleratingtheglobalwarming.

JaanSuurkula,WorldwidecooperationrequiredtopreventglobalcrisisPartonetheproblem,PhysiciansandScientistsforResponsibleApplicationofScienceandTechnology,February6,2004

RisingSeaLevels

Waterexpandswhenheated,andsealevelsareexpectedtoriseduetoclimatechange.Risingsealevelswillalsoresultasthepolarcapsbegintomelt.

Risingsealevelsisalreadyaffectingmanysmallislands.

TheWorldWatchInstitutereportsthat[t]heEarthsicecoverismeltinginmoreplacesandathigherratesthanatanytimesincerecordkeepingbegan.(March6,2000).

Risingsealevelswillimpactmanycoastlines,andalargemassofhumanitylivesnearthecoastsorbymajorrivers.AnalysisbytheWorldWildlifeFundhasfoundthatmanycitiesareunpreparedforclimatechangeeffectssuchasrisingsealevels.

Video:NOAAOceanAcidificationDemonstration,NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,February

26,2010

Video:Shortoverviewofoceanacidification:OceanAcidification,ABCWorldNewsWebcast,June7,2008

Increasingoceanacidification

OceanAcidificationconsumptionofcarbonateionsimpedecalcification.Source:PacificMarineEnvironmentLaboratory,NOAA

Althoughithasgainedlessmainstreammediaattention,theeffectsofincreasinggreenhouseemissionsinparticularcarbondioxideontheoceansmaywellbesignificant.

AsexplainedbytheUSagency,theNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),thebasicchemistryofoceanacidificationiswellunderstood.

Thesearethe3mainconcepts:

1. MoreCO2intheatmospheremeansmoreCO2intheocean

2. AtmosphericCO2isdissolvedintheocean,whichbecomesmoreacidicand

3. Theresultingchangesinthechemistryoftheoceansdisruptstheabilityofplantsandanimalsintheseatomakeshellsandskeletonsofcalciumcarbonate,whiledissolvingshellsalreadyformed.

ScientistshavefoundthatoceansareabletoabsorbsomeoftheexcessCO2releasedbyhumanactivity.Thishashelpedkeepthe

planetcoolerthanitotherwisecouldhavebeenhadthesegasesremainedintheatmosphere.

However,theadditionalexcessCO2beingabsorbedisalsoresultingintheacidificationoftheoceans:

WhenCO2reactswithwateritproducesaweakacidcalledcarbonicacid,changingtheseawaterchemistry.

AstheGlobalBiodiversityOutlookreportexplains,thewaterissome30%moreacidicthanpreindustrialtimes,depletingcarbonateionsthebuildingblocksformanymarineorganisms.

Inaddition,concentrationsofcarbonateionsarenowlowerthanatanytimeduringthelast800,000years.Theimpactsonoceanbiologicaldiversityandecosystemfunctioningwilllikelybesevere,thoughtheprecisetiminganddistributionoftheseimpactsareuncertain.(Seep.58ofthereport.)

Video:Clayanimationbyschoolchildren:TheotherCO2problem,March23,2009(commissionedbyEPOCA)

AlthoughmillionsofyearsagoCO2levelswerehigher,todayschangeisoccurringrapidly,givingmany

marineorganismstoolittletimetoadapt.Somemarinecreaturesaregrowingthinnershellsorskeletons,forexample.Someofthesecreaturesplayacrucialroleinthefoodchain,andinecosystembiodiversity.

Somespeciesmaybenefitfromtheextracarbondioxide,andafewyearsagoscientistsandorganizations,suchastheEuropeanProjectonOCeanAcidification,formedtotrytounderstandandassesstheimpactsfurther.

Oneexampleofrecentfindingsisatinysandgrainsizedplanktonresponsibleforthesequestrationof2550%ofthecarbontheoceansabsorbisaffectedbyincreasingoceanacidification.Thistinyplanktonplaysamajorroleinkeepingatmosphericcarbondioxide(CO2)concentrationsatmuchlowerlevelsthantheywouldbeotherwisesolargeeffectsonthemcouldbequiteserious.

OtherrelatedproblemsreportedbytheInterPressServiceincludemoreoceanicdeadzones(areaswherethereistoolittleoxygenintheseatosupportlife)andthedeclineofimportantcoastalplantsandforests,suchasmangroveforeststhatplayanimportantroleincarbonabsorption.Thisisontopofthealreadydecliningoceanbiodiversitythathasbeenhappeningforafewdecades,now.

Scientistsnowbelievethatoceanacidificationisunparalleledinthelast300millionyears,raisingthepossibilitythatweareenteringanunknownterritoryofmarineecosystemchange.

IncreaseinPestsandDisease

Anincreaseinpestsanddiseaseisalsofeared.

AreportinthejournalScienceinJune2002describedthealarmingincreaseintheoutbreaksandepidemicsofdiseasesthroughoutthelandandoceanbasedwildlifeduetoclimatechanges.

Oneoftheauthorspointsoutthat,Climatechangeisdisruptingnaturalecosystemsinawaythatismakinglifebetterforinfectiousdiseases.

FailingAgriculturalOutputIncreaseinWorldHunger

TheGuardiansummarizesaUnitedNationswarningthat,Oneinsixcountriesintheworldfacefoodshortagesthisyearbecauseofseveredroughtsthatcouldbecomesemipermanentunderclimatechange.

Droughtanddesertificationarestartingtospreadandintensifyinsomepartsoftheworldalready.

Agricultureandlivelihoodsarealreadybeingaffected

Failingagricultureinthefuturehavelongbeenpredicted.

Lookingto2100,scientistswholookedatprojectionsofglobalwarmingsimpactontheaveragetemperaturesduringthegrowingseasonfearthatrisingtemperatureswillhaveasignificantimpactuponcropyields,mostnoticeablyinthetropicsandsubtropics.

Whilewarmweathercanoftenbegoodforsomecrops,hotterthanaveragetemperaturesfortheentire

Video:FoodandGlobalWarming,ScienCentral,January7,2009

seasonisoftennotgoodforplants.

Thiswouldaffectatleasthalftheworldspopulationthateitherliveintheregionorrelyonfoodcomingfromthatregion.

IRIN(IntegratedRegionalInformationNetworks),partoftheUnitedNations,hasproducedaseriesofshortvideosshowinghowsomeregionsarealreadybeingaffectedbyclimatechangeandaretryingtoadaptasaresult:

ChangingcropsMeltingglaciersWorseningfloodsCreepingdeserts

OneexampleisfarmersinNepalfindingthatcultivatingriceisntasproductiveasbefore,andarechangingtoothercropsasaresult:

Video:SwappingCropsClimateChange,IRIN,June28,2009

IntheHimalayas,meltingglaciersmeanslesswaterforlocalvillages:

Video:MeltingGlaciersClimateChange,IRIN,June25,2009

(SouthAsiaingeneralisalsoseriouslyaffectedbyrapidlyretreatingHimalayanglacierswhichfeedthemightyriversthathavecreatedthevariousSouthAsiancivilizations.)

InMozambique,rainsarebecomingheavierandcausingfloods,whichaffectcropsandpeopleslivelihoodsastheyaredisplacedandhavetochangetheirwayoflifequickly.

Video:FloodingRiversinMozambique,IRIN,January21,2009

Itisfearedthatglobally,therewillbemassmigrationsinthefutureasclimatechangemakesconditionsworseinsomeregionsoftheworld,andthesechallengeswillplayitselfoutonamuchlargerscale,withmuchmorehumanmovement.(AndifWesternattitudestowardsimmigrationarenegativenow,theycouldbeevenworseinthefuture.)

InMauritania,bycontrast,thereistheproblemofincreasingdesertification,creepingeverclosertopeoplewhohavehadtochangetheirwayoflife,focusingmoreonsearchingforwater.

Video:WomenandClimateChangeinBolivia,UNFPA,November2009

Video:WomenandClimateChangeinVietnam,UNFPA,November2009

Video:CreepingDesertsinMauritania,IRIN,January21,2009

Insomecases,improvedagriculturaltechniquesmayhelp,suchasrainwaterharvestinganddripirrigation.Somealsobelievegeneticallymodifiedcropsmaybeessentialtodealwithchangingclimates.Yet,therearemanyothercrucialissuesthataffectagriculture,suchaspoverty,politicalandeconomiccausesofworldhunger,globaltradepolicies(whichcreateunequaltradeandaffectthepoorestcountriesthemost),etc.

SeeIRINsvideosonclimatechangeimpactsinAfricaandAsiaformoreshortclips.

Womenfacebruntofclimatechangeimpacts

Itisrecognizedthatpoorernationswillsuffertheworstfromclimatechange,eitherbecauseofgeographicalreasons,and/orbecausetheywillhavelessresourcestocopewithaproblem(mostlycausedbyemissionsfromrichcountriesoverthepastdecades).

Inadditiontopoorcountries,womenarelikelytosuffertheworst,astheUnitedNationsPopulationfundexplains:

Womenparticularlythoseinpoorcountrieswillbeaffecteddifferentlythanmen.Theyareamongthemostvulnerabletoclimatechange,partlybecauseinmanycountriestheymakeupthelargershareoftheagriculturalworkforceandpartlybecausetheytendtohaveaccesstofewerincomeearningopportunities.Womenmanagehouseholdsandcareforfamilymembers,whichoftenlimitstheirmobilityandincreasestheirvulnerabilitytosuddenweatherrelatednaturaldisasters.Droughtanderraticrainfallforcewomentoworkhardertosecurefood,waterandenergyfortheirhomes.Girlsdropoutofschooltohelptheirmotherswiththesetasks.Thiscycleofdeprivation,povertyandinequalityunderminesthesocialcapitalneededtodealeffectivelywithclimatechange.

Facingachangingworld:women,populationandclimate ,StateoftheWorldsPopulation2009,UNFPA,November18,2009,p.4

TheUNFPAalsocapturesthisinsomevideosthataccompaniedtheir2009report.

ThefirstoneistheabovedescribedeffectsoccurringinruralareasofBolivia.ThesecondoneisontheimpactonwomeninVietnam.

Greenhousegasesandemissionsresultingfromhumanactivity

Everyfewyears,leadingclimatescientistsattheUNsIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)havereleasedmajor,definitivereportsdetailingtheprogressinunderstandingclimatechange.Fromthe

outsettheyhaverecommendedthattherebeemissionreductions.Thisbodyiscomprisedofhundredsofclimatescientistsaroundtheworld.

AtthebeginningofJanuary2007,theIPCCsfourthmajorreportsummarizedthattheywereevenmorecertainthanbeforeofhumaninducedclimatechangebecauseofbetterscientificunderstanding:

Globalatmosphericconcentrationsofcarbondioxide,methaneandnitrousoxidehaveincreasedmarkedlyasaresultofhumanactivitiessince1750andnowfarexceedpreindustrialvaluesdeterminedfromicecoresspanningmanythousandsofyears.Theglobalincreasesincarbondioxideconcentrationaredueprimarilytofossilfueluseandlandusechange,whilethoseofmethaneandnitrousoxideareprimarilyduetoagriculture.

TheunderstandingofanthropogenicwarmingandcoolinginfluencesonclimatehasimprovedsincetheThirdAssessmentReport(TAR),leadingtoveryhighconfidencethatthegloballyaveragedneteffectofhumanactivitiessince1750hasbeenoneofwarming.

Mostoftheobservedincreaseingloballyaveragedtemperaturessincethemid20thcenturyisverylikelyduetotheobservedincreaseinanthropogenicgreenhousegasconcentrations.

ClimateChange2007:ThePhysicalScienceBasisSummaryforPolicymakers ,IPCC,February5th,2007[emphasisisoriginal]

Theirdefinitionofveryhighconfidenceandverylikelyisa90%chanceofbeingcorrect.(Their2001reportclaimeda66%certainty.)

Thisreportwasproducedbysome600authorsfrom40countries.Over620expertreviewersandalargenumberofgovernmentreviewersalsoparticipated,accordingtotheIPCCsmediaadvisory.

AsInterPressServicenotes,althoughtheIPCChasbecomethegoldstandardforglobalscientificcollaboration,theirreportsareinherentlyconservative:

TheIPCCoperatesundertheWorldMeteorologicalOrganisation(WMO)andtheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP)anddoesnotfundanyresearchitself.Itcollects,evaluatesandsynthesisesscientificdata.AnyU.N.countrycanbeamemberoftheIPCCandcanchallengethefindingsinitsreports.AndconsensusisrequiredforeverywordintheSummaryforPolicyMakerssectionincludedineachreport.

Itsaninherentlyconservativeprocess,withoilrichcountrieslikeKuwaitandSaudiArabiaalwaystryingtotonedowntheconclusionsandemphasiseuncertaintiesandunknowns,saidWeaver.

StephenLeahy,EndlessSummerNotAsNiceAsItSounds,InterPressService,January25,2007

DifferencesinGreenhouseGasEmissionAroundtheWorld

AstheWorldResourcesInstitutehighlightsthereisahugecontrastbetweendeveloped/industrializednationsandpoorerdevelopingcountriesingreenhouseemissions,aswellasthereasonsforthose

emissions.Forexample:

Intermsofhistoricalemissions,industrializedcountriesaccountforroughly80%ofthecarbondioxidebuildupintheatmospheretodate.Since1950,theU.S.hasemittedacumulativetotalofroughly50.7billiontonsofcarbon,whileChina(4.6timesmorepopulous)andIndia(3.5timesmorepopulous)haveemittedonly15.7and4.2billiontonsrespectively(althoughtheirnumberswillrise).Annually,morethan60percentofglobalindustrialcarbondioxideemissionsoriginateinindustrializedcountries,whereonlyabout20percentoftheworldspopulationresides.Muchofthegrowthinemissionsindevelopingcountriesresultsfromtheprovisionofbasichumanneedsforgrowingpopulations,whileemissionsinindustrializedcountriescontributetogrowthinastandardoflivingthatisalreadyfarabovethatoftheaveragepersonworldwide.Thisisexemplifiedbythelargecontrastsinpercapitacarbonsemissionsbetweenindustrializedanddevelopingcountries.PercapitaemissionsofcarbonintheU.S.areover20timeshigherthanIndia,12timeshigherthanBrazilandseventimeshigherthanChina.

Atthe1997KyotoConference,industrializedcountrieswerecommittedtoanoverallreductionofemissionsofgreenhousegasesto5.2%below1990levelsfortheperiod20082012.(TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)saidinits1990reportthata60%reductioninemissionswasneeded)

TheEconomicsofEcosystemsandBiodiversity(TEEB)isanorganizationbackedbytheUNandvariousEuropeangovernmentsattemptingtocompile,buildandmakeacompellingeconomicscasefortheconservationofecosystemsandbiodiversity.

InareporttitledTheEconomicsofEcosystemsandBiodiversityforNationalandInternationalPolicyMakers2009,TEEBnoteddifferenttypesofcarbonemissionsascolorsofcarbon:

BrowncarbonIndustrialemissionsofgreenhousegasesthataffecttheclimate.

GreencarbonCarbonstoredinterrestrialecosystemse.g.plantbiomass,soils,wetlandsandpastureandincreasinglyrecognizedasakeyitemfornegotiationintheUNFCCC.

BluecarbonCarbonboundintheworldsoceans.Anestimated55%ofallcarboninlivingorganismsisstoredinmangroves,marshes,seagrasses,coralreefsandmacroalgae.

BlackcarbonFormedthroughincompletecombustionoffuelsandmaybesignificantlyreducedifcleanburningtechnologiesareemployed.

Butamitigationapproachneedstoconsideralltheseformsofcarbontheynote,notjustoneortwo:

Pastmitigationeffortsconcentratedonbrowncarbon,sometimesleadingtolandconversionforbiofuelproductionwhichinadvertentlyincreasedemissionsfromgreencarbon.Byhaltingthelossofgreenandbluecarbon,theworldcouldmitigateasmuchas25%oftotalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionswithcobenefitsforbiodiversity,food

securityandlivelihoods(IPCC2007,Nellemannetal.2009).Thiswillonlybepossibleifmitigationeffortsaccommodateallfourcarboncolors.

TheEconomicsofEcosystemsandBiodiversityforNationalandInternationalPolicyMakers2009,p.18

TheUnitedStatesistheWorldsLargestEmitterofGreenhouseGasesPerCapita

Around2007,ChinasurpassedtheUSastheworldslargestemitterofgreenhousegasesintermsoftotaloutput.Perperson(percapita),however,Chinasemissionsaremuchsmaller.

Untilrecently,theUnitedStateswastheworldslargestemitterofgreenhousegases.However,itremainsthelargestemitterwhenmeasuredintermsofemissionsperperson.

Duetoitsmuchlongerperiodofindustrialization,theUShasemittedfarmoreintotheatmospherethanChina(greenhousegasessuchasCO2lingeronintheatmospherefordecades).

Inaddition,theUS:

AccountsforroughlyfourpercentoftheworldspopulationAccountsforapproximately20%ofglobalemissionsandsome40%ofindustrializedcountryemissions

Thepreviously15memberEuropeanUnionisalsolargeEmitter

Thepreviously15membernationsEuropeanUnion(E.U.),ifconsideredasawhole(foritismorecomparabletotheU.S.):

Accountsforroughly3percentoftheworldspopulationAccountsforaround10%ofglobalemissionsand24%ofindustrializedcountriesmanmadeemissionsofthesixmaingasesRecentyearshaveseenareductioninemissionsfromthoseinitial15memberstates.However,

ItisnotnearthelevelrequiredForthesecondconsecutiveyear,in2003,emissionsfromEUcountrieshaveactuallyincreasedslightly(thoughstillremainingslightlylowerthan1990levels).

StallingKyotoProtocolGetsPushbyRussia

TheKyotoProtocolwastheclimatechangetreatynegotiatedin1997,settingtargetsforemissionsofgreenhousegases.

Inordertobebindingunderinternationallaw,thetreatywouldneedratificationfromthecountriesresponsibleforaround55%oftheglobalgreenhousegasemissionsof1990.

TheU.S.beingtheworldslargestemitterofgreenhousegases,pulledoutin2001,leavingtreatyratificationdependentonRussia,responsiblefor17%ofworldemissions.Russiahastocutemissionlevels

fromtheSovietdays,andtheiremissionsinthepastdecadehasbeenfarless,soitshouldnotposeasmuchofaproblemtoreducesuchemissions.

Notingtheabove,theBBCcommentedonthisaddingthatKyotowasonlyeverafirststepnowdiscussionsonthenext,morestringent,targetongreenhousegasemissionscanbegin.

CanadapullsoutofKyoto

OnDecember132011,CanadapulledoutoftheKyotoclimatetreatywhichitislegallyallowedtodotocondemnationdomesticallyandinternationally.Oneofthemainconcernshadbeenthecosttothetaxpayer:(CAN)$14bn.

Yet,theeconomiccostsofinactionareinthetrillions:

Economicstudieshaveconsistentlyshownthatmitigation(suchasputtingapriceoncarbonemissions)isseveraltimeslesscostlythantryingtoadapttoclimatechange.Theabovechartshowstotalcostsforactiononclimatechangeby2100tobeabout$11trillionwhiledamageswillbeabout$8trillion.Withinaction,however,damagesby2100willbearound$20trillion.By2200,thesenumbersshootup(over$30trillionifactiontaken,orover$70ifnoactiontaken).Source:Theeconomicimpactsofcarbon

pricing,SkepticalScience.com,March1,2012

(SomebelieveoneofCanadasmotivationstoleaveKyotowasonitsdesiretoprotectthelucrativebuthighlypollutingexploitationoftarsands,thesecondbiggestoilreserveintheworld,asTheGuardianhadnoted.)

Richnationemissionshavebeenrising

TheUNFCCCreported(November17,2008)thatalthoughindustrializednationshavereducedemissions

between1990and2006,inrecentyears,between2000and2006,greenhousegasemissionshave

generallyincreasedby2.3% .

SideNote

Thisisdespiteanoveralldecreaseof4.7%since1990.However,themorerecentperiodsuggeststherichcountryemissionreductionsarenotsustainable.Furthermore,itlooksworseconsideringalargepartofthisdecreaseisbecauseofthecollapseoftheSovietUnion.Astransitioneconomiesstartedtorecoveraround2000,emissionshavestartedtorise.

Somenationswithlargereductionsarealsoseeinglimits,forexample:

UK(15.1%reduction)benefitedbyswitchingfromcoaltonaturalgasbutthatswitchislargelyinplacenow.Germany(18.2%reduction)hascertainlyinvestedingreenhousegasemissionreductions,buthasbeenhelpedinlargepartbecauseofreunification(EastGermany,likemuchofeasternEuropeandformerSovietstateshadeconomicproblems,hencelessemissionsatthetime).OtherreductionshavecomeinpartfromrelocatingmanufacturingtootherplacessuchasChina,whichnowclaimsatleastonethirdofitsemissionsarebecauseofproductionforothers.

(SeealsothisClimateChangePerformanceIndexfromGermanWatchandClimateActionNetworkEurope,whichattemptstorankover57nationsthataccountfor90%oftheworldstotalgreenhousegasemissions,includingindustrializednationsandemergingeconomies.)

RichNationsHaveOutsourcedTheirCarbonEmissions

Globaltradeisanimportantfeatureofthemodernworld.Theproductionandglobaldistributionofmanufacturedproductsthusformalargeportionofglobalhumancarbonemissions.

TheKyotoProtocolassignscarbonemissionstocountriesbasedonwhereproductiontakesplaceratherthanwherethingsareconsumed.

Formanyyears,criticsoftheKyotoProtocolhavelongarguedthatthismeansrichcountries,whohaveoutsourcedmuchoftheirmanufacturingtodevelopingnationshaveanaccountingtricktheycanusetoshowmoreemissionsreductionthandevelopingnations.

TheBBCnotedbackin2005thatthisoutsourcingwasalreadytakingplace,butthisideastartedwaybeforetheKyotoProtocolcameintobeing.

In1991LarrySummers,thenChiefEconomistfortheWorldBank(andUSTreasurySecretary,intheClintonAdministration,untilGeorgeBushandtheRepublicanpartycameintopower),hadbeenastrongbackerofstructuraladjustmentpolicies.Hewroteinaninternalmemo:

Justbetweenyouandme,shouldnttheWorldBankbeencouragingmoremigrationofdirtyindustriestotheLDCs[lessdevelopedcountries]?Theeconomiclogicbehinddumpingaloadoftoxicwasteinthelowestwagecountryisimpeccable,andweshouldface

uptothatUnderpopulatedcountriesinAfricaarevastlyunderpollutedtheirairqualityisprobablyvastlyinefficientlylowcomparedtoLosAngelesorMexicoCityTheconcernoveranagentthatcausesaoneinamillionchangeintheoddsofprostatecancerisobviouslygoingtobemuchhigherinacountrywherepeoplesurvivetogetprostatecancerthaninacountrywhereunderfivemortalityis200perthousand.

LawrenceSummers,Letthemeatpollution,TheEconomist,February8,1992.QuotedfromVandanaShiva,StolenHarvest,(SouthEndPress,2000)p.65SeealsoRichardRobbins,GlobalProblemsandthe

CultureofCapitalism(AllynandBacon,1999),pp.233236foradetailedlookatthis.

Althoughthediscussionabovewasntaboutcarbonemissions,theintentionwasthesame:ratherthandirectlyaddresstheproblem,offshoringdirtyindustriestothedevelopingnationsandletthemdealwithit.

Morerecently,TheGuardianprovidedausefulsummaryoftheimpactsofthisapproach:carbonemissionscutsbydevelopedcountriessince1990havebeencanceledoutbyincreasesinimportedgoodsfromdevelopingcountriesmanytimesover.

TheyweresummarizingglobalfigurescompiledandpublishedintheProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciencesoftheUS.AndthefindingsseemedtovindicatewhatmanyenvironmentalgroupshadsaidformanyyearsabouttheKyotoProtocolasnotedearlier.

Inmoredetail:

Accordingtostandarddata,developedcountriescanclaimtohavereducedtheircollectiveemissionsbyalmost2%between1990and2008.Butoncethecarboncostofimportshavebeenaddedtoeachcountry,andexportssubtractedthetruechangehasbeenanincreaseof7%.IfRussiaandUkrainewhichcuttheirCO2emissionsrapidlyinthe1990sduetoeconomiccollapseareexcluded,theriseis12%.

MuchoftheincreaseinemissionsinthedevelopedworldisduetotheUS,whichpromiseda7%cutunderKyotobutthendidnottoratifytheprotocol.Emissionswithinitsbordersincreasedby17%between1990and2008andby25%whenimportsandexportsarefactoredin.

Inthesameperiod,UKemissionsfellby28milliontonnes,butwhenimportsandexportsaretakenintoaccount,thedomesticfootprinthasrisenbymorethan100milliontonnes.Europeachieveda6%cutinCO2emissions,butwhenoutsourcingisconsideredthatisreducedto1%.

Thestudyshowsaverydifferentpictureforcountriesthatexportmorecarbonintensivegoodsthantheyimport.China,whosegrowthhasbeendrivenbyexportbasedindustries,isusuallydescribedastheworld'slargestemitterofCO2,butitsfootprintdropsbyalmostafifthwhenitsimportsandexportsaretakenintoaccount,puttingitfirmlybehindtheUS.

Chinaaloneaccountsforamassive75%ofthedevelopedworld'soffshoredemissions,accordingtothepaper.

DuncanClark,Carboncutsbydevelopedcountriescancelledoutbyimportedgoods,TheGuardian,April25,2011

Inaddition,asClimateNewsNetworknotes,AsiancountrieshavebeencuttingemissionsfasterthanEuropeandtheUS.Atthesametime,therearesignsofprogressinEuropeandtheUS,too.Germanyforexampleisknowntobepushingforrenewablesmorethanmost.WhilerecentlytheUShasseenadropincarbonemissionswhileseeingsomeeconomicgrowth.

DevelopingCountriesAffectedMost

Ithasbeenknownforsometimeknowthatdevelopingcountrieswillbeaffectedthemost.Reasonsvaryfromlackingresourcestocope,comparedtodevelopednations,immensepoverty,regionsthatmanydevelopingcountriesareinhappentobetheoneswheresevereweatherwillhitthemost,smallislandnationsareaalreadyseeingsealevelrising,andsoon.

GermanWatchpublishedaGlobalClimateRiskIndexattheendof2011listingnationsthatwouldbeaffectedthemostfromclimatechangebasedonextremeweathersuchashurricanesandfloods.

Between1991and2010theyfoundthesewerethemostaffectednations:

1. Bangladesh2. Myanmar3. Honduras4. Nicaragua5. Haiti6. Vietnam7. DominicanRepublic8. Pakistan9. Korea,DPR10. Philippines

MuchofAsia,aswellaswealthierareassuchastheUS,RussiaandAustraliahavealsoexperiencedspecificincidentsofverydamagingextremeweatherthattheclimateriskindexcaptures:

Weatherrelatedlosseventsandtheirimpactsoncountriesin2010and1991to2010ClimateRiskIndex2012,ClimateWatch,November29,2011(Clickimageforlarger

version)

Into2013,Novembersawpossiblythelargestevertyphoon,Hiayan,makelandfallandcauseincredibledevastationtopartsofthePhilippineswithatleast10,000feareddeadandmorethan9millionaffected.

GeostationarysatellitesoftheJapanMeteorologicalAgency(MTSat2)andEUMETSAT(Meteosat7)capturedtheextraordinarysizeoftyphoonHiayanasit

approachedthePhilippines.Source.2013JMA/EUMETSAT.

HiayanstruckjustdaysbeforethestartofamajorUNconferenceonclimatechangeperhapsactingasawakeupcalltothenegotiatorsregardingpotentialimpactsofinaction.Whilenosingleeventcaneasilybeattributedtoclimatechange,astheInstituteforPublicAccuracynotes,thisdevastatingtyphoondemonstrateshowtheGlobalSouthpaysthepriceforemissionshistoricallyfromtheNorth.

AnneWardPenguin

Greenhousegasemissionscontinuetorise

TheWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)notedinNovember2013thattheamountofgreenhousegasesintheatmospherereachedanewrecordhighin2012,continuinganupwardandacceleratingtrendwhichisdrivingclimatechangeandwillshapethefutureofourplanetforhundredsandthousandsofyears.

Carbondioxide,mainlyfromfossilfuelrelatedemissions,accountedfor80%ofthisincrease.TheatmosphericincreaseofCO2from2011to2012washigherthanitsaveragegrowthrateoverthepasttenyears.

(TheInternationalEnergyAgency,IEA,alsoreportedthisearlierintheyear.)

Sodespiteincreasedglobalwarmingconcernsandcallsforaction,littleseemstohavebeenachievedduetothepoliticalchallenges,andskepticismthatabounds.

SkepticismonGlobalWarmingorThatitcanbehumaninduced

Foraverylongtime,somethingofcontentionanddebateintheU.S.hadbeenwhetherornotalotofclimatechangehasinfactbeeninducedbyhumanactivities,whilemanyscientistsaroundtheworld,Europeespecially,havebeenmoreconvincedthatthisisthecase.

InMay2002,theBushAdministrationintheU.S.didadmitalinkbetweenhumanactivitiesandclimatechange.However,atthesametimetheadministrationhascontinueditscontroversialstanceofmaintainingthatitwillnotparticipateintheinternationaltreatytolimitglobalwarming,theKyotoProtocol,duetoeconomicprioritiesandconcerns.(MoreabouttheKyotoProtocol,U.S.andothersactions/inactionsisdiscussedinsubsequentpagesonthissection.)

Throughoutthe1990s,especiallyintheUnitedStates,butinothercountriesaswell,thosewhowouldtryandraisetheimportanceofthisissue,andsuggestthatweareperhapsoverconsuming,orunsustainablyusingourresourcesetc,werefacedwithalotofcriticismandridicule.ThepreviouslinkistoanarticlebyGeorgeMonbiot,writingin1999.In2004,henotesasimilarissue,wherebymediaattemptsatbalancehasledtofalsebalancingwheredisproportionatetimeisgiventomorefringescientistsorthosewithlesscredibilityorwithadditionalagendas,withoutnotingso,andthusgivestheimpressionthatthereismoredebateinthescientificcommunityaboutwhetherornotclimatechangeisanissuetobeconcernedaboutornot:

Pictureasituationinwhichmostofthemedia,despitetheoverwhelmingweightofmedicalopinion,refusedtoacceptthattherewasaconnectionbetweensmokingandlungcancer.

Imaginethateverytimenewevidenceemerged,theyaskedsomeonewithnomedicalqualificationstowriteapiecedismissingtheevidenceandclaimingthattherewasnoconsensusontheissue.

ImaginethattheBBC,intheinterestsofdebate,wheeledoutoneofthetinynumberofscientistswhosaysthatsmokingandcancerarentlinked,orthatgivingupisntworththetrouble,everytimetheissueofcancerwasraised.

Imaginethat,asaresult,nexttonothingwasdoneabouttheproblem,tothedelightofthetobaccoindustryandthedetrimentofmillionsofsmokers.WewouldsurelydescribethenewspapersandtheBBCasgrosslyirresponsible.

Nowstopimaginingit,andtakealookatwhatshappening.Theissueisnotsmoking,butclimatechange.Thescientificconsensusisjustasrobust,themisreportingjustaswidespread,theconsequencesevengraver.

Thescientificcommunityhasreachedaconsensus,the[U.K.]governmentschiefscientificadviser,ProfessorDavidKing,toldtheHouseofLordslastmonth.Idonotbelievethatamongstthescientiststhereisadiscussionastowhetherglobalwarmingisduetoanthropogeniceffects.

Itismanmadeanditisessentially[causedby]fossilfuelburning,increasedmethaneproductionandsoon.SirDavidchosehiswordscarefully.Thereisadiscussionaboutwhetherglobalwarmingisduetoanthropogenic(manmade)effects.Butitisnotorisonlyseldomtakingplaceamongscientists.Itistakingplaceinthemedia,anditseemstoconsistofacompetitiontoestablishtheouterreachesofimbecility.

Butthese[skepticsandillogicalpointsagainstclimatechange]areratherlessdangerousthantheBBC,anditsinsistenceonbalancingitscoverageofclimatechange.Itappearstobeincapableofrunninganitemonthesubjectwithoutinvitingasceptictocommentonit.

Usuallythisiseithersomeonefromacorporatefundedthinktank(whois,ofcourse,neverintroducedassuch)ortheprofessionalantienvironmentalistPhilipStott.ProfessorStottisaretiredbiogeographer.Likealmostalltheprominentscepticshehasneverpublishedapeerreviewedpaperonclimatechange.Buthehasmadehimselfavailabletodismissclimatologistspeerreviewedworkastheliesofecofundamentalists.

ThiswouldntbesoobjectionableiftheBBCmadeitclearthatthesepeoplearenotclimatologists,andtheoverwhelmingmajorityofqualifiedscientificopinionisagainstthem.Instead,itleavesuswiththeimpressionthatprofessionalopinionissplitdownthemiddle.ItsabitlikecontinuallybringingpeopleontotheprogrammetosuggestthatthereisnolinkbetweenHIVandAids.

Whatmakesallthissodangerousisthatitplaysintothehandsofcorporatelobbyists.A

recentlyleakedmemowrittenbyFrankLuntz,theUSRepublicanandcorporatestrategist,warnedthatTheenvironmentisprobablythesingleissueonwhichRepublicansingeneralandPresidentBushinparticulararemostvulnerableShouldthepubliccometobelievethatthescientificissuesaresettled,theirviewsaboutglobalwarmingwillchangeaccordingly.Therefore,youneedtomakethelackofscientificcertaintyaprimaryissue.

GeorgeMonbiot,Bewarethefossilfools,TheGuardian,April27,2004

Monbiotscommentsabovewereover5yearsago(asofwriting),andyetsomeofthoseconcerns,especiallyaboutfalsebalancing,carryontoday.

GarySchmidtisaleadingclimateresearcherworkingforNASA.HeisalsoacontributortoRealClimate.org,ablogbyclimatescientiststhatattempttodispelmisinformationbyclimateskepticsandprovidebackgroundinformationoftenmissinginmainstreammedia.Inoneofhisposts,helamentsatthecontinualdiversioncausedbymisinformation:

Recentlytherehasbeenmoreofasensethattheissuesbeingdiscussed(inthemediaoronline)haveabitofagroundhogdayqualitytothem.Thesamenonsense,thesamelogicalfallacies,thesameconfusionsallseemtobeendlesslyrepeated.Thesamestrawmenarebeingconstructedanddemolishedasiftheywerepartofamakeworkschemeforthebuildingindustryattachedtothestimulusproposal.

GarySchmidt,GroundhogDay,RealClimate.org,June8,2009

However,(andperhapsbelatedly)thereisgrowingpublicacceptanceofhumaninducedclimatechangeasreportssuchastheUSGlobalChangeResearchProgramandtheUKMetOfficeassertthingslikecurrentclimatechangehappeningnowandhumaninducedandthattheywillcausemanyproblems.

But,aswellasgrowingacceptance,thereisalsoloudervocalopposition,andtherepeatednonsenseandlogicalfallaciesthatSchmidtwasconcernedaboutseemstohavehadaneffectuponthegeneralpublicintheUS,anywayfewerAmericansbelieveinglobalwarming(astheWashingtonPostheadlinedit.

Amongstscientists,however,thereislessskepticism:11%ofUSscientistsfromanyfielddisagreewithhumaninducedclimatechange,whileonly1%ofUSclimatologistsdisagree,accordingtothefollowing:

ClimateChange:AConsensusAmongScientists?,informationisbeautiful.net,December23,2009

Askingwhoareamongthe11%ofskepticalscientistsamongstallsciencefields,almosthalfareengineers.

Formoredetailedinformation,thefollowingsitescanbeuseful:

Scienceblogs.comprovidesasummaryofthevariousclaimsofclimatechangedeniersgrist.orgprovidesasimilarlistasScienceBlogsRealClimate.orgisanauthoritativeblogmaintainedbysomeoftheworldsleadingclimatescientists.TheyoftenattempttoexplainverytechnicalissuestolaypeopleandoftentrytoaddresscommonmythsandotherclaimsSkepticalScienceisanotherblogthatlooksatvariousclaimsfromskepticsandaddressesthem.

BushAdministrationAccusedofSilencingitsownClimateScientists

AsrevealedtowardstheendofJanuary2006,NASAstopclimatescientistsaidNASAandtheBushAdministrationtriedtosilencehim.

WhileNASAsaidthiswasstandardproceduretoensureanorderlyflowofinformation,thescientist,Dr.JamesHansendisagreed,sayingthatsuchprocedureshadalreadypreventedthepublicfromfullygraspingrecentfindingsaboutclimatechangethatpointtorisksahead.

Dr.Hansen,accordingtotheNewYorkTimesreportingthis,notedthatthesewerefresheffortstosilencehimbecausehehadsaidthatsignificantemissioncutscouldbeachievedwithexistingtechnologies,particularlyinthecaseofmotorvehicles,andthatwithoutleadershipbytheUnitedStates,climatechangewouldeventuallyleavetheearthadifferentplanet.(Bycontrast,theBushadministrationspolicyistousevoluntarymeasurestoslow,butnotreverse,thegrowthofemissions.)

Furthermore,AfterthatspeechandthereleaseofdatabyDr.HansenonDec.15showingthat2005wasprobablythewarmestyearinatleastacentury,officialsattheheadquartersofthespaceagencyrepeatedlyphonedpublicaffairsofficers,whorelayedthewarningtoDr.Hansenthattherewouldbedireconsequencesifsuchstatementscontinued,thoseofficersandDr.Hansensaidininterviews.

Earlier,in2004,Dr.HansenfelloutoffavorwiththeBushAdministrationforpubliclystatingbeforethepresidentialelectionsthatgovernmentscientistswerebeingmuzzledandthatheplannedtovoteforJohnKerry.

TheNewYorkTimesalsonotesthatthisechoesotherrecentdisputes,wherebymanyscientistswhoroutinelytookcallsfromreportersfiveyearsagocannowdosoonlyiftheinterviewisapprovedbyadministrationofficialsinWashington,andthenonlyifapublicaffairsofficerispresentoronthephone.

Furthermore,Wherescientistspointsofviewonclimatepolicyalignwiththoseoftheadministration,however,therearefewsignsofrestrictionsonextracurricularlecturesorwriting.

Andintermsofmediamanipulation,theTimesalsorevealedthatatleastoneinterview(amongstmanyothers)wascanceledbecauseitwaswithNPR,whichthepublicaffairsofficialresponsiblefeltwasthemostliberalmediaoutletinthecountry.Thisimpliesapoliticalbias/propagandaintermsofhowinformationisreleasedtothepublic,whichshouldbeofseriousconcern.

AtthebeginningofJune,2006,theBBCPanoramadocumentaryfolloweduponthisandfoundthatmanyscientistsfelttheywerebeingcensoredandthatvariousreportshadbeensystematicallysuppressed,evenaltered.Inonecase,amajorclimateassessmentreportwasdueoutamonthbeforethe2004presidentialelections,butwasdelayedbecauseithadsuchableakassessment,andtheBushadministrationdidnotwantittobepartoftheelectionissues.Itwasreleasedshortlyaftertheelectionswereover.

PanoramaalsointerviewedapollsterwhohadadvisedtheBushAdministrationwhentheycameintopowerin2000toquestionglobalwarming,thathumanscauseditifitexistedatall,tohireskepticalscientists,andplaydownitsimpacts.(TheadvisorhasnowdistancedhimselfawayfromtheBushAdministrationsstancetodaybecausehefeltthesciencewasmorecertainthanitwasin2000.)

JustweeksbeforehurricaneKatrinadevastatedpartsofSouthernUnitedStates,PanoramareportedthatAnotherscientistfromtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)hadresearchwhichestablishedglobalwarmingcouldincreasetheintensityofhurricanes.Hewasduetogiveaninterviewabouthisworkbutclaimshewasgagged.AfterKatrina,theNOAAwebsitesaidunusualhurricaneactivityisnotrelatedtoglobalwarming.WhenaleadingscientistwasaskedwhyNOAAcameoutwithsuchastatement,hesuggesteditwasideologicallydriven.

(TheBBCPanoramadocumentaryiscalledClimatechaos:Bushsclimateoffearandaswellasasummary,youcanwatchtheactualdocumentaryonline.)

Despiteattemptstodiscreditglobalwarmingconcerns,theBushAdministrationhasnowconcededthatthereisclimatechangeandthathumansarecontributingtoit,butPanoramareportsthatalotofvitaltimehasbeenlost,andthatsomescientistsfearUSpolicymaybetooslowtocarryout.

AlmostayearafterthestoryaboutattemptstosilenceNASAstopclimatescientist,manymediaoutletshavereportedonanewsurveywherehundredsofgovernmentscientistssaytheyhaveperceivedor

Photo:fullcargoship.Credit:YP/Flickr

personallyexperiencedpressurefromtheBushadministrationtoeliminatephrasessuchasclimatechangeandglobalwarmingfromtheirreportsandpublicstatements.AUSgovernmenthearingintheUSisalsopursuingthisfurtherastheseriousnessofclimatechangeisbecomingmoreaccepted.

TherehasbeenasimilarconcerninAustralia.Atthebeginningof2006,theAustralianBroadcastingCompany(ABC)revealedthatsomebusinesslobbygroupshaveinfluencedtheAustraliangovernmenttopreventAustraliafromreducinggreenhousegasemissions.Thislobbygroupincludedinterestsfromthecoal,electricity,aluminum(aluminium),petroleum,mineralsandcementindustries.Thedocumentaryexposingthisrevealedpossiblecorruptionwithingovernmentduetoextremelyclosetieswithsuchindustriesandlobbygroups,andallegedsilencingofgovernmentclimatescientists.

Inwhatwouldseemtobeatwisttosuppressionofgovernmentreports,itwaswidelyclaimedthattheUSEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyhadsuppressedareportthatwasskepticalofclimatechange.However,itturnsoutthatwhilethereportwaswrittenbyanemployeeonEPAtime,butonhisowninitiativeandnotqualifiedtodoso,andsocouldntbepublishedbytheEPAandthereforewasnotsuppressed.Furthermore,asthepreviouslinkfinds,thereportcontainedlargepiecesofplagiarism.Inaddition,thereportwasflawedasRealClimte.orgquicklyshowed.

Theheadlinesaboutthisepisodetalkedofsuppressionandwouldlikelyincreasetheviewamongstthosestillskepticalaboutclimatechange.Correctionstothoseheadlineshavebeenfew,andlessprominent,bycomparison.

ManySourcesOfGreenhouseGasesBeingDiscovered

Pollutionfromvariousindustries,theburningoffossilfuels,methanefromfarmanimals,forestdestruction,rotting/deadvegetationetchaveledtoanincreasednumberofgreenhousegasesintheatmosphere.And,asinternationaltradeinitscurrentformcontinuestoexpandwithlittleregardfortheenvironment,thetransportationalone,ofgoodsisthoughttoconsiderablycontributetoglobalwarmingviaemissionsfromplanes,shipsandothertransportationvehicles.(Formoreabouttradeandglobalizationinitscurrentformandhowitaffectstheenvironment,aswellasotherconsequences,visitthiswebsitessectiononTrade,Economy,&RelatedIssues.)

Evensulphuremittedfromshipsarethoughttocontributeafairbittoclimatechange.(Ifyouhaveregisteredatthejournal,Nature,thenyoucanseethereporthere.)Infact,sulphurbasedgas,originatingfromindustry,discoveredin2000isthoughttobethemostpotentgreenhousegasmeasuredtodate.Itiscalledtrifluoromethylsulphurpentafluoride(SF5CF3).

TheGuardianaddsthatonegiantcontainershipcanemitalmostthesameamountofcancerandasthmacausingchemicalsas50millioncars.

Furthermore,Confidentialdatafrommaritimeindustryinsidersbasedonenginesizeandthequalityoffueltypicallyusedbyshipsandcarsshowsthatjust15oftheworld'sbiggestshipsmaynowemitasmuchpollutionasalltheworlds760mcars.Lowgradeshipbunkerfuel(orfueloil)hasupto2,000timesthe

Photo:PeatBogWesternSiberia.Credit:ressaure/Flickr

sulphurcontentofdieselfuelusedinUSandEuropeanautomobiles.

(Shippingisresponsiblefor3.5%to4%ofallclimatechangeemissionstheGuardianalsonotes.)

NewScientist.comreports(December22,2003)onastudythatsuggestssootparticlesmaybeworsethancarbondioxideincontributingtoglobalwarming.Thesootparticlesalsooriginatefromindustry,andduringtheindustrialrevolution,wasquitecommon.Whileonthepositivesidethereislesssootthesedaysandperhapseasiertocontrolifneeded,alone,asoneofthescientistsofthestudycommented,Itdoesnotchangetheneedtoslowdownthegrowthrateofcarbondioxideandeventuallystabilizetheatmosphericamount.

NewScientist.comandothershavealsoreported(August2005)thattheworldslargestfrozenpeatbogismelting,andcouldunleashbillionsoftonnesofmethane,apotentgreenhousegas,intotheatmosphere.AnareathesizeofFranceandGermanycombinedhasbeenmeltinginthelast4years.Inaddition,WesternSiberiahaswarmedfasterthanalmostanywhereelseontheplanet,withanincreaseinaveragetemperaturesofsome3Cinthelast40years.

Ascientistexplainedafearthatifthebogsdryoutastheywarm,themethanewilloxidiseandescapeintotheairascarbondioxide.Butifthebogsremainwet,asisthecaseinwesternSiberiatoday,thenthemethanewillbereleasedstraightintotheatmosphere.Methaneis20timesaspotentagreenhousegasascarbondioxide.

Warminghappeningmorequicklythanpredicted

Whilethosedenyingclimatechangearereducinginnumberandthereappearstobemoreefforttotryandtackletheproblem,climatescientistsarenowfearingthatclimatechangeishappeningfarfasterandishavingmuchlargerimpactsthantheyeverimagined.

TheArcticplaysanincrediblyimportantroleinthebalanceoftheearthsclimate.Rapidchangestoitcanhaveknockoneffectstotherestoftheplanet.SomehavedescribedtheArcticasthecanaryinthecoalmine,referringtohowcanarybirdsusedtobetakendeepdowncoalmines.Iftheydied,itimpliedoxygenlevelswerelowandsignaledmineworkerstogetout.

Satelliteobservationsshowthearcticseaicedecreasing,andprojectionsfortherestofthecenturypredictevenmoreshrinkage:

Image:ThedecreaseofArcticseaice,minimumextentin1982and2007,andclimateprojections.UNEP/GRIDArendal,2007

Intermsofbiodiversity,theprospectoficefreesummersintheArcticOceanimpliesthelossofanentirebiome,theGlobalBiodiversityOutlookreportnotes(p.57).

Inaddition,Wholespeciesassemblagesareadaptedtolifeontopoforundericefromthealgaethatgrowontheundersideofmultiyearice,formingupto25%oftheArcticOceansprimaryproduction,totheinvertebrates,birds,fishandmarinemammalsfurtherupthefoodchain.Theiconicpolarbearatthetopofthatfoodchainisthereforenottheonlyspeciesatriskeventhoughitmaygetmoremediaattention.

Note,theiceintheArcticdoesthawandrefreezeeachyear,butitisthatpatternwhichhaschangedalotinrecentyearsasshownbythisgraph:

TheextentoffloatingseaiceintheArcticOcean,asmeasuredatitsannualminimuminSeptember,showedasteadydeclinebetween1980and2009.Source:NationalSnowandIceDataCenter,graphcompiledbySecretariatoftheConventiononBiologicalDiversity(2010)

GlobalBiodiversityOutlook3,May2010

ItisalsoimportanttonotethatlossofseaicehasimplicationsonbiodiversitybeyondtheArctic,astheGlobalBiodiversityOutlookreportalsosummarizes:

Brightwhiteicereflectssunlight.Whenitisreplacedbydarkerwater,theoceanandtheairheatmuchfaster,afeedbackthatacceleratesicemeltandheatingofsurfaceairinland,withresultantlossoftundra.Lessseaiceleadstochangesinseawatertemperatureandsalinity,leadingtochangesinprimaryproductivityandspeciescompositionofplanktonandfish,aswellaslargescalechangesinoceancirculation,affectingbiodiversitywellbeyondtheArctic.

SecretariatoftheConventiononBiologicalDiversity(2010),GlobalBiodiversityOutlook3,May,2010,p.57

SomescientistsfearchangesarehappeningtotheArcticmuchfasterthananticipated.ThepreviouslinkmentionsthatdespitecomputerclimatemodelspredictinglossofArcticseaiceby2050to2080,somescientistsfearitcouldbeassoonas2015.TheBBCnotessimilarconcernsbyscientists,withonequotedassayingtheseaiceissothinthatyouwouldhavetohaveanexceptionalsequenceofcoldwintersandcoldsummersinorderforittorebuild.

AnotherBBCarticlereportsscientistsnowhaveunambiguousevidencethatthewarmingintheArcticisaccelerating.

TheArcticreflectsmuchsunlightbackintospacehelpingkeepearthtemperate.Moremeltingwillresultinlessreflectionandevenmoreheatbeingabsorbedbytheearth.Achainreactioncouldresult,suchastheGreenlandicesheetmelting(whichwillactuallyincreasesealevels,whereasthemeltingofArcticicewill

notbecauseitisseaice),possiblyincreasingthemeltingofpermafrostinSiberia,whichwillreleasehugeamountsofmethane(asnotedabove),andrapidlychangeclimatepatterns,circulationpatternsandjetstreams,farquickerthanwhatmostoftheenvironmentcouldadapttoeasily.

OldermembersoftheindigenousInuitpeopledescribehowweatherpatternshaveshiftedandchangedinrecentyears,whiletheyalsofacechallengestotheirwayoflifeintheformofincreasedcommercialinterestinthearcticregion.Thiscombinationofenvironmentalandeconomicfactorsputindigenouspopulationswaysatacrossroadsasthisdocumentaryfromexplore.orgshows:

Video:Arctic:ChangeattheTopoftheWorld,Explore.org,September2007Followlinkfortranscriptandmoreinformation

Fordecades,scientistsandenvironmentalistshavewarnedthatthewayweareusingEarthsresourcesisnotsustainable.Alternativetechnologieshavebeencalledforrepeatedly,seeminglyupondeafears(or,cynically,uponthosewhodontwanttomakesubstantialchangesasitchallengestheirbottomlineandtakesawayfromtheircurrentprofits).

Inthepast,somecompaniesandindustrieshavepushedbackonenvironmentalprogramsinordertoincreaseprofitsortosurviveinatoughbusinessworld.

Ithasperhapstakenaboutadecadeorsoandasevereenoughglobalfinancialcrisisthathashittheheartofthiswayofthinkingtochangethismentality(inwhichtime,moregreenhousegaseshavebeenemittedinefficiently).Isthattoolateorwillitbeokay?

Economiststalkofthepricesignalthatisfundamentaltocapitalismtheabilityforpricestoindicatewhenaresourceisbecomingscarcer.Atsuchatime,capitalismandthemarketswillmobilizeautomaticallytoaddressthisbylookingforwaystobringdowncosts.Asaresult,resourcesaresupposedlyinfinite.Forexample,ifenergycostsgoup,businesseswilllookforawaytominimizesuchcostsforthemselves,anditisinsuchatimethatalternativescomeaboutand/orexistingresourceslastlongerbecausetheyareusedmoreefficiently.Runningoutofresourcesshouldthereforebeaverted.

However,ithaslongbeenarguedthatpricesdonttrulyreflectthefullcostofthings,soeitherthesignalisincorrect,orcomestoolate.Thepricesignalalsoimpliesthepoorestoftenpaytheheaviestcosts.Forexample,commerciallyoverfishingaregionmaymeanfishfromthatareabecomeshardertocatchandmoreexpensive,possiblyallowingthatecosystemtimetorecover(thoughthatisnotguaranteed,either).However,whilecommercialentitiescanexploitresourceselsewhere,localfishermenwillgooutofbusinessandthepoorerwilllikelygohungry(asalsodetailedonthissitessectiononbiodiversity).Thisthenhasanimpactonvariouslocalsocial,politicalandeconomicissues.

Inadditiontothat,otherrelatedmeasurements,suchasGNParethereforeflawed,andevenrewardunproductiveorinefficientbehavior(e.g.Efficientlyproducingunhealthyfoodandtheunhealthyconsumerculturetogowithitmayprofitthefoodindustryandaprivatehealthsectorthathastodealwithit,allofwhichrequiremoreuseofresources.Moreexamplesarediscussedonthissitessectiononconsumptionandconsumerism).

Ourcontinuedinefficientpumpingofgreenhousegasesintotheenvironmentwithoutfactoringtheenormouscostastheclimatealreadybeginstochangeisperhapsanexamplewherepricesignalsmaycome

byAnupShahCreated:Monday,July20,1998

LastUpdated:Sunday,February01,2015

toolate,oratatimewhenthereisalreadysignificantimpacttomanypeople.Resourcesthatcouldbeavailablemoreindefinitely,becomefinitebecauseofourinabilityorunwillingnesstochange.

Thesubsequentpagesonthissitelookatthepoliticalissuesaroundtacklingclimatechange.

Wherenext?

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