climate change and global warming introduction — global issues
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Climate Change and Global Warming Introduction — Global IssuesTRANSCRIPT
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GlobalIssues http://www.globalissues.orgSocial,Political,EconomicandEnvironmentalIssuesThatAffectUsAll
ClimateChangeandGlobalWarmingIntroduction
byAnupShah ThisPageLastUpdatedSunday,February01,2015
Thispage:http://www.globalissues.org/article/233/climatechangeandglobalwarmingintroduction.
Toprintallinformatione.g.expandedsidenotes,showsalternativelinks,usetheprintversion:
http://www.globalissues.org/print/article/233
Thiswebpagehasthefollowingsubsections:
1. WhatisGlobalWarmingandClimateChange?1. WhatarethemainindicatorsofClimateChange?2. WhatistheGreenhouseEffect?3. TheGreenhouseeffectisnatural.Whatdowehavetodowithit?4. Theclimatehasalwaysvariedinthepast.Howisthisanydifferent?5. DoesntrecentrecordcoldweatherdisproveGlobalWarming?6. Hasglobalwarmingpausedduetorecentsurfacetemperaturedrops?7. Mostglobalwarmingisgoingintotheoceans8. 2014warmestyearsincerecordsbegan
2. WhataretheimpactsofGlobalWarming?1. Rapidchangesinglobaltemperature2. Smallaverageglobaltemperaturechangecanhaveabigimpact3. ExtremeWeatherPatterns
1. Superstorms2. Extremeweathereventsontheincrease
4. EcosystemImpacts5. RisingSeaLevels6. Increasingoceanacidification7. IncreaseinPestsandDisease8. FailingAgriculturalOutputIncreaseinWorldHunger9. Agricultureandlivelihoodsarealreadybeingaffected10. Womenfacebruntofclimatechangeimpacts
3. Greenhousegasesandemissionsresultingfromhumanactivity1. DifferencesinGreenhouseGasEmissionAroundtheWorld
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2. TheUnitedStatesistheWorldsLargestEmitterofGreenhouseGasesPerCapita3. Thepreviously15memberEuropeanUnionisalsolargeEmitter4. StallingKyotoProtocolGetsPushbyRussia5. CanadapullsoutofKyoto6. Richnationemissionshavebeenrising7. RichNationsHave"Outsourced"TheirCarbonEmissions8. DevelopingCountriesAffectedMost9. Greenhousegasemissionscontinuetorise
4. SkepticismonGlobalWarmingorThatitcanbehumaninduced1. BushAdministrationAccusedofSilencingitsownClimateScientists
5. ManySourcesOfGreenhouseGasesBeingDiscovered6. Warminghappeningmorequicklythanpredicted
WhatisGlobalWarmingandClimateChange?
Globalwarmingandclimatechangerefertoanincreaseinaverageglobaltemperatures.Naturaleventsandhumanactivitiesarebelievedtobecontributingtoanincreaseinaverageglobaltemperatures.ThisiscausedprimarilybyincreasesingreenhousegasessuchasCarbonDioxide(CO2).
Awarmingplanetthusleadstoachangeinclimatewhichcanaffectweatherinvariousways,asdiscussedfurtherbelow.
WhatarethemainindicatorsofClimateChange?
AsexplainedbytheUSagency,theNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),thereare7indicatorsthatwouldbeexpectedtoincreaseinawarmingworld(andtheyare),and3indicatorswouldbeexpectedtodecrease(andtheyare):
Tenindicatorsforawarmingworld,PastDecadeWarmestonRecordAccordingtoScientistsin48Countries,NOAA,July28,2010
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WhatistheGreenhouseEffect?
Thetermgreenhouseisusedinconjunctionwiththephenomenonknownasthegreenhouseeffect.
Energyfromthesundrivestheearthsweatherandclimate,andheatstheearthssurfaceInturn,theearthradiatesenergybackintospaceSomeatmosphericgases(watervapor,carbondioxide,andothergases)trapsomeoftheoutgoingenergy,retainingheatsomewhatliketheglasspanelsofagreenhouseThesegasesarethereforeknownasgreenhousegasesThegreenhouseeffectistheriseintemperatureonEarthascertaingasesintheatmospheretrapenergy.
Imagesource:GreenhouseEffect,Wikipedia(Linkincludesdetailedexplanationoftheaboveimage).Note,imageaboveexpressesenergyexchangesin
wattspersquaremeter(W/m )
Sixmaingreenhousegasesarecarbondioxide(CO2),methane(CH4)(whichis20timesaspotenta
greenhousegasascarbondioxide)andnitrousoxide(N2O),plusthreefluorinatedindustrialgases:
hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs),perfluorocarbons(PFCs)andsulphurhexafluoride(SF6).Watervaporisalso
consideredagreenhousegas.
TheGreenhouseeffectisnatural.Whatdowehavetodowithit?
Manyofthesegreenhousegasesareactuallylifeenabling,forwithoutthem,heatwouldescapebackintospaceandtheEarthsaveragetemperaturewouldbealotcolder.
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However,ifthegreenhouseeffectbecomesstronger,thenmoreheatgetstrappedthanneeded,andtheEarthmightbecomelesshabitableforhumans,plantsandanimals.
Carbondioxide,thoughnotthemostpotentofgreenhousegases,isthemostsignificantone.Humanactivityhascausedanimbalanceinthenaturalcycleofthegreenhouseeffectandrelatedprocesses.NASAsEarthObservatoryisworthquotingtheeffecthumanactivityishavingonthenaturalcarboncycle,forexample:
InadditiontothenaturalfluxesofcarbonthroughtheEarthsystem,anthropogenic(human)activities,particularlyfossilfuelburninganddeforestation,arealsoreleasingcarbondioxideintotheatmosphere.
WhenweminecoalandextractoilfromtheEarthscrust,andthenburnthesefossilfuelsfortransportation,heating,cooking,electricity,andmanufacturing,weareeffectivelymovingcarbonmorerapidlyintotheatmospherethanisbeingremovednaturallythroughthesedimentationofcarbon,ultimatelycausingatmosphericcarbondioxideconcentrationstoincrease.
Also,byclearingforeststosupportagriculture,wearetransferringcarbonfromlivingbiomassintotheatmosphere(drywoodisabout50percentcarbon).
Theresultisthathumansareaddingeverincreasingamountsofextracarbondioxideintotheatmosphere.Becauseofthis,atmosphericcarbondioxideconcentrationsarehighertodaythantheyhavebeenoverthelasthalfmillionyearsorlonger.
TheCarbonCycleTheHumanRole,EarthObservatory,NASA
Anotherwayoflookingatthisiswithasimpleanalogy:considersaltandhumanhealth:
AsmallamountofsaltisessentialforhumanlifeSlightlymoresaltinourdietoftenmakesfoodtastierToomuchsaltcanbeharmfultoourhealth.
Inasimilarway,greenhousegasesareessentialforourplanettheplanetmaybeabletodealwithslightlyincreasedlevelsofsuchgases,buttoomuchwillaffectthehealthofthewholeplanet.
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Imagesource:NASA.(Note,valuesshownrepresentCarbonGigatonsbeingabsorbedandreleased)
Theotherdifferencebetweenthenaturalcarboncycleandhumaninducedclimatechangeisthatthelatterisrapid.Thismeansthatecosystemshavelesschanceofadaptingtothechangesthatwillresultandsotheeffectsfeltwillbeworseandmoredramaticitthingscontinuealongthecurrenttrajectory.
Theclimatehasalwaysvariedinthepast.Howisthisanydifferent?
ThroughoutEarthshistorytheclimatehasvaried,sometimesconsiderably.Pastwarmingdoesnotautomaticallymeanthattodayswarmingisthereforealsonatural.Recentwarminghasbeenshowntobeduetohumanindustrializationprocesses.
JohnCook,writingthepopularSkepticalScienceblog,summarizesthekeyindicatorsofahumanfingerprintonclimatechange:
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JohnCook,10IndicatorsofaHumanFingerprintonClimateChange,SkepticalScience,July30,2010
Thisgraph,basedonthecomparisonofatmosphericsamplescontainedinicecoresandmorerecentdirectmeasurements,providesevidencethatatmosphericCO2hasincreasedsincetheIndustrialRevolution:
(Source:NOAA)via:ClimateChange:Howdoweknow?NASA,accessedOctober27,2009
TheabovecovershundredsofthousandsofyearsandshowshowatmosphericCO2levelshave
dramaticallyincreasedinrecentyears.Ifwezoominonjustthepast250years,weseethefollowing:
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GlobalCO2emissions,17512010,CarbonDioxideInformationAnalysisCenter(CDIAC),2013,lastaccessedFebruary1,2015.DOI:10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2013
NASAsGoddardInstituteofSpaceStudies(GISS)tracksatmosphericglobaltemperatureclimatetrends.Asenvironmentalengineer,DKellyODay,explainedonProcessingTrends.com(linknolongeravailable):Tofacilitateassessmentsoflongtermtrends,climatologistscomparethemeanforabaseperiodwiththeannualmean.Differencesbetweentheannualmeanandbaselinemeanarecalledanomalies.GISSusesthe19511980periodfortheirbaselineperiod.Theyusethedifferencebetweentheannualmeanandthebaselinemeantodeterminetheglobaltemperatureanomalyfortheyear.
ODayoriginallyproducedachartshowingglobaltemperatureanomaliesbetween1800and2006usingdatafromNASA.Iupdatedthechartheprovidedtoincluderecentlyupdateddataupto2014:
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Sources:GISSSurfaceTemperatureAnalysis,NASA,accessedJanuary25,2015Globaltemperature,18002006,ProcessTrends.com,accessedOctober27,2009(linknolongeravailable)
Inthe18801935period,thetemperatureanomalywasconsistentlynegative.Incontrast,thesince1980theanomalyhasbeenconsistentlypositive.The1909temperatureanomaly(0.47oC)wasthelowestyearonrecord.Since1909,globaltemperaturehaswarmed,withthemostrecentyearsshowingthehighestanomaliesof+0.6oCinthepast120years.
ANASAsGISSanimationalsoshowshowmostpartsoftheworldhaveexperiencedthiswarming,recently:
Video:Globaltemperatureshavewarmedsignificantlysince1880,thebeginningofwhatscientistscallthemodernrecord.Atthistime,thecoverageprovidedbyweatherstationsallowedforessentiallyglobaltemperaturedata.Asgreenhousegasemissionsfromenergyproduction,industryandvehicles
haveincreased,temperatureshaveclimbed,mostnotablysincethelate1970s.Source:NASAFinds2014WarmestYearinModernRecord,NASAGoddard
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InstituteforSpaceStudies,January16,2015
And,asSirDavidAttenboroughexplains,naturalvariabilityalonedoesnotexplainrecenttemperaturerise:
Video:SirDavidAttenborough:TheTruthAboutClimateChange,October22,2006
Aswellasthelinksabove,seealsoSkepticalScience,which,whileexaminingtheargumentsofglobalwarmingskepticism,providesinformationoncausesofanthropogenicglobalwarming.
DoesntrecentrecordcoldweatherdisproveGlobalWarming?
Indifferentpartsoftheworld,therehavebeenvariousweathereventsthatatfirstthoughtwouldquestionglobalwarming.Forexample,someregionshaveexperiencedextremelycoldwinters(sometimesrecordbreaking),whileothershaveexperiencedheavyrain,etc.
Theconfusionthatsometimesarisesisthedifferencebetweenclimatechangeandweatherpatterns.Weatherpatternsdescribeshorttermevents,whileclimatechangeisalongerprocessthataffectstheweather.Awarmingplanetisactuallyconsistentwithincreasingcold,increasingrainandotherextremes,asanoverallwarmerplanetchangesweatherpatternseverywhereatalltimesoftheyear.
Togetanideaofhowlookingatshorttermchangesonlycanleadtoaconclusionthatglobalwarminghasstopped,ordoesntexist,seeAldenGriffithshasglobalwarmingstopped?
(Asanaside,thosecryingfoulofglobalwarmingclaimswhengoingthroughextremelycoldweatherinEuropeforexamplein2010,laterfoundtheirsummerstobefullofheatwaves.Thepointhereisthataspecificshortperiodsuchasacoldwinterorevenahotsummerisnotproofalonethatglobalwarminghasstopped(orincreased)shorttermvariabilitycanmasklongertermtrends.)
Thismeans,forexample,increasingtemperaturescanactuallymeanmoresnowfallatleastuntilitbecomestoowarmforsignificantsnowfalltohappen.
Theadditionalconcern,asmeteorologyprofessorScottMandiaexplains,itcantakedecadesfortheclimatetemperaturestoincreaseinresponsetoincreasedgreenhousegasemissions.Soupuntilnow,perhapsithasbeeneasierforskepticstodenyclimatechangeisoccurringorthathumansareresponsible.
Hasglobalwarmingpausedduetorecentsurfacetemperaturedrops?
AstheIPCCsfifthmajorreportdrawstoaconclusionin2013itnotesthatscientistshaveincreasedtheircertaintyofhumaninducedwarmingto95%.Itwasextremelylikelythathumaninfluencehasbeenthe
dominantcauseoftheobservedwarmingsincethemid20thcentury,assummarized bytheIPCC.
Astheirfifthreportstartedtocomeout,anumberofclimateskepticsandmediaoutletswerearguingthattheslowdownshowninsurfacetemperaturesinrecentyearsprovedglobalwarminghadstoppedorpaused.Yet,thisslowdownwasinsurfacetemperaturesonlyeventhoughtheoveralltrend(usingamorelongerperiodwhichismorevalidinclimatechangeanalysis)showedanincreaseintemperatures.Two
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simplegraphshelpillustratethis:
Source:ClimateChange2013:ThePhysicalScienceBasis,IPCCWorkingGroupIcontributiontotheIPCCFifthAssessmentReport,September2013.Chapter3.[Note,
graphmodifiedtoaddthezoomedinportionhighlightingtheareaskepticsusetoclaimclimatechangehasstopped.]
ThenextgraphisananimationfromSkepticalScienceshowinghowtimeframestointerpretclimatedataissignificant:
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Source:TheEscalator,SkepticalScience,lastaccessedOctober19,2013
ForfurtherinformationontheaboveseealsoDoestheglobalwarmingpausemeanwhatyouthinkitmeans?,fromSkepticalScience.
Mostglobalwarmingisgoingintotheoceans
Asthisinfographicshows,mostofthewarmingisgoingintotheoceans:
Source:JohnCook,Infographiconwhereglobalwarmingisgoing,SkepticalScience.com,January20,2011(furthernotesonthesourcedataused)
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OveHoeghGuldbergNCSEtalkfromJohnBruno PLUS
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Video:OveHoeghGuldbergNCSEtalkonclimatechangeimpactsonoceanecosystems,Climate
Shifts,January21,2011.
AsJohnCook,creatorofthegraphicabovesays(seeabovelink),Justasittakestimeforacupofcoffeetoreleaseheatintotheair,sotoittakestimefortheoceantoreleaseitsheatintotheatmosphere..
TheimplicationsofthisisfurtherexplainedwithInterPressServicesfreezeranalogy:TheworldsnorthernfreezerisonrapiddefrostaslargevolumesofwarmwaterarepouringintotheArcticOcean,speedingthemeltofseaice.
Indeed,asthischartalsoshows,thewarmingintheoceanshasbeenoccurringforquitesometime:
Source:JohnCook,TheEarthcontinuestobuildupheat,SkepticalScience,October12,2011
OneofJohnBrunoscolleagues,OveHoeghGuldberg,talksabouttheimpactclimatechangewillhaveonoceanecosystems.Asummaryofthevideoheresaysthat
Rapidlyrisinggreenhousegasconcentrationsaredrivingoceansystemstowardconditionsnotseenformillionsofyears,withanassociatedriskoffundamentalandirreversibleecologicaltransformation.Changesinbiologicalfunctionintheoceancausedbyanthropogenicclimatechangegofarbeyonddeath,extinctionsandhabitatloss:fundamentalprocessesarebeingaltered,communityassemblagesarebeingreorganizedandecologicalsurprisesarelikely.
D.SalmonsalsohasapostatSkepticalSciencethatexplainstheimpactofwarmingArcticsrelationtotheverycoldrecentwintersfurther,usingthefollowingNASAmap:
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Source:GISSSurfaceTemperatureAnalysis,NASAGoddardInstituteforSpaceStudies,accessedJanuary30,2011
AsSalmonsexplains,
theArctichasbeenheatingup,andstudiesshowthatishappeningattwotothreetimestheglobalaverage.ThisrisingtemperatureintheArctichasservedtoreducetheregionsfloatingicelayerbymorethan20%.Andasyouwouldexpect,whenthereflectiveiceandsnowlayerisstrippedaway,itleavesadarkbluesea.
Now,whatdoestheeffectofthedarkblueseabeingexposedhaveontheArcticarea?Well,theiceandsnowlayerreflectsthemajorityofthesunsraysharmlesslybackintospace.Butthedarkblueoftheexposedseaabsorbstherays,aidingtheheatingprocess.
D.Salmons,GlobalWarmingandColdWinters,SkepticalScience,January15,2011
2014warmestyearsincerecordsbegan
NASAsGISSSurfaceTemperatureAnalysisgraphshownearlier(from1800to2014)showsthattemperatureanomaliessince1980haveallbeenpositivei.e.ithasbeenconstantlyhotterthannormal.
Asthesamedatashows,thehottestyearshaveallbeensince1998:
Rank1=Warmest18802014
Year AnomalyC AnomalyF
1 2014 0.69 1.24
2(tie) 2010 0.65 1.17
2(tie) 2005 0.65 1.17
4 1998 0.63 1.13
5(tie) 2013 0.62 1.12
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Source:NOAANationalClimaticDataCenter,StateoftheClimate:GlobalAnalysisforAnnual2014,publishedonlineDecember2014,retrievedonJanuary25,2015
5(tie) 2003 0.62 1.12
7 2002 0.61 1.10
8 2006 0.60 1.08
9(tie) 2009 0.59 1.06
9(tie) 2007 0.59 1.06
WhataretheimpactsofGlobalWarming?
Fordecades,greenhousegases,suchascarbondioxidehavebeenincreasingintheatmosphere.Butwhydoesthatmatter?Wontwarmerweatherbenicerforeveryone?
Rapidchangesinglobaltemperature
IncreasedgreenhousegasesandthegreenhouseeffecthascontributedtoanoverallwarmingoftheEarthsclimate,leadingtoaglobalwarming(eventhoughsomeregionsmayexperiencecooling,orwetterweather,whilethetemperatureoftheplanetonaveragewouldrise).
Consideralsothefollowing:
WhileyeartoyearchangesintemperatureoftenreflectnaturalclimaticvariationssuchasElNio/LaNiaevents,changesinaveragetemperaturefromdecadetodecadereveallongtermtrendssuchasglobalwarming.Eachofthelastthreedecadeshasbeenmuchwarmerthanthedecadebefore.Atthetime,the1980swasthehottestdecadeonrecord.Inthe1990s,everyyearwaswarmerthantheaverageofthepreviousdecade.The2000swerewarmerstill.
PastDecadeWarmestonRecordAccordingtoScientistsin48Countries,NationalOceanandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),July28,2010
Attheendofthe1990s,theWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)hadnotedthatnotonlywasthe1990sthewarmestdecadebutatthetime,the1900swasthewarmestcenturyduringthelast1,000years.
Itistherapidpaceatwhichthetemperaturewillrisethatwillresultinmanynegativeimpactstohumansandtheenvironmentandthiswhythereissuchaworldwideconcern.
Smallaverageglobaltemperaturechangecanhaveabigimpact
Climatescientistsadmitthatthechancesoftheworldkeepingaverageglobaltemperatureatcurrentlevelsarenotgoingtobepossible(humanityhasdonelittletoaddressthingsinthepastcoupleofdecadesthattheseconcernshavebeenknownabout).
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So,now,thereisapushtocontaintemperaturerisestoanaverage2Cincrease(asanaverage,thismeanssomeregionsmaygethighertemperaturesandothers,lower).
Evenjusta2Cincreasecanhaveimpactsaroundtheworldtobiodiversity,agriculture,theoceansetc(detailedfurtherbelow).Butintheleaduptoimportantglobalclimatetalksattheendof2009,somedelegatesareskepticalthattemperaturerisescanbecontainedtoa2Crise(orC02levelsof350ppm).
OnOctober22,2009,theBritishGovernmentandtheUKsMetOffice(UKsNationalWeatherService)unveiledanewmap,showingwhatwouldhappenifweallowedaverageglobaltemperaturestoincreaseto4Cabovepreindustriallevels(thehighendoftheUNIPCCprojections):
Video:Theimpactofaglobaltemperatureriseof4C(7F),UKMetOffice,October22,2009(Seelargermap)
Inshort,wewouldnotbeabletocopewitha4Caverageincrease.
AstheMetOfficenoted,
Thepostershowsthatafourdegreeaveragerisewillnotbespreaduniformlyacrosstheglobe.Thelandwillheatupmorequicklythanthesea,andhighlatitudes,particularlytheArctic,willhavelargertemperatureincreases.Theaveragelandtemperaturewillbe5.5degreesabovepreindustriallevels.
Theimpactsonhumanactivityshownonthemapareonlyaselection.
Agriculturalyieldsareexpectedtodecreaseforallmajorcerealcropsinallmajorregionsofproduction.HalfofallHimalayanglacierswillbesignificantlyreducedby2050,leadingto23%ofthepopulationofChinabeingdeprivedofthevitaldryseasonglacialmeltwatersource.
Theimpactofaglobaltemperatureriseof4C(7F),UKMetOffice,October22,2009
SideNote
ExtremeWeatherPatterns
Mostscientistsbelievethatthewarmingoftheclimatewillleadtomoreextremeweatherpatternssuchas:
MorehurricanesanddroughtLongerspellsofdryheatorintenserain(dependingonwhereyouareintheworld)ScientistshavepointedoutthatNorthernEuropecouldbeseverelyaffectedwithcolderweatherifclimatechangecontinues,asthearcticbeginstomeltandsendfresherwatersfurthersouth.ItwouldeffectivelycutofftheGulfStreamthatbringswarmthfromtheGulfofMexico,keepingcountriessuchasBritainwarmerthanexpectedInSouthAsia,theHimalayanglacierscouldretreatcausingwaterscarcityinthelongrun.
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Whilemanyenvironmentalgroupshavebeenwarningaboutextremeweatherconditionsforafewyears,theWorldMeteorologicalOrganizationannouncedinJuly2003thatRecentscientificassessmentsindicatethat,astheglobaltemperaturescontinuetowarmduetoclimatechange,thenumberandintensityofextremeeventsmightincrease.
TheWMOalsonotesthatNewrecordextremeeventsoccureveryyearsomewhereintheglobe,butinrecentyearsthenumberofsuchextremeshavebeenincreasing.(TheWMOlimitsthedefinitionofextremeeventstohightemperatures,lowtemperaturesandhighrainfallamountsanddroughts.)TheU.KsIndependentnewspaperdescribedtheWMOsannouncementasunprecedentedandastonishingbecauseitcamefromarespectedUnitedNationsorganizationnotanenvironmentalgroup!
Superstorms
Mentionedfurtherabovewastheconcernthatmorehurricanescouldresult.ThelinkusedwasfromtheenvironmentalorganizationWWF,writtenbackin1999.InAugust/September2004awaveofseverehurricanesleftmanyCaribbeanislandsandpartsofSouthEasternUnitedStatesdevastated.IntheCaribbeanmanyliveswerelostandtherewasimmensedamagetoentirecities.IntheU.S.manyliveswerelostaswell,someofthemostexpensivedamageresultedfromthesuccessivehurricanes.
Initswake,scientistshavereiteratedthatsuchsuperstormsmaybeasignofthingstocome.Globalwarmingmayspawnmoresuperstorms,InterPressService(IPS)notes.
InterviewingabiologicaloceanographyprofessoratHarvardUniversity,IPSnotesthattheworldsoceansareapproaching27degreesCorwarmerduringthesummer.Thisincreasestheoddsofmajorstorms.
Whenwaterreachessuchtemperatures,moreofitevaporates,priminghurricaneorcycloneformation.Onceborn,ahurricaneneedsonlywarmwatertobuildandmaintainitsstrengthandintensity.
Furthermore,asemissionsofgreenhousegasescontinuetotrapmoreandmoreofthesunsenergy,thatenergyhastobedissipated,resultinginstrongerstorms,moreintenseprecipitationandhigherwinds.
Thereisabundantevidenceofanunprecedentednumberofsevereweathereventsinthepastdecade,[professorofbiologicaloceanographyatHarvardUniversity,James]McCarthysays.In1998,HurricaneMitchkillednearly20,000peopleinCentralAmerica,andmorethan4,000peoplediedduringdisastrousfloodinginChina.Bangladeshsufferedsomeofitsworstfloodseverthefollowingyear,asdidVenezuela.Europewashitwithrecordfloodsin2002,andthenarecordheatwavein2003.
Morerecently,BrazilwasstruckbythefirsteverrecordedhurricaneintheSouthAtlanticlastMarch.
Weatherrecordsarebeingsetallthetimenow.Wereinaneraofunprecedentedextremeweatherevents,McCarthysaid.
Historicalweatherpatternsarebecominglessusefulforpredictingthefutureconditionsbecauseglobalwarmingischangingoceanandatmosphericconditions.
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In30to50yearstime,theEarthsweathergeneratingsystemwillbeentirelydifferent,hepredicted.
StephenLeahy,GlobalWarmingMaySpawnMoreSuperStorms,InterPressService,September20,2004
Extremeweathereventsontheincrease
Lookingat2010asawholeyearrevealedavarietyofextremeweatherevents.Apanelofclimateandweatherexpertsrankedthetop10globalweather/climateeventsof2010whichincludedheatwavestodroughtstonegativearcticoscillation(aclimatepatternwherecoldArcticairslidessouthwhilewarmerairmovesnorth,bringingsnowstormsandrecordcoldtemperaturestomuchoftheNorthernHemisphere)showthatavarietyofweathereventscanoccurasaresultofchangingclimate:
TopTenGlobalWeather/ClimateEventsof2010
Rank EventWhen
OccurredDescription
1
RussoEuropeanAsianHeatWaves
Summer
Aseveresummerspawneddrought,wildfiresandcropfailuresacrosswesternRussia,wheremorethan15,000peopledied.Alltimehightemperaturesoccurredinmanycitiesandnationsintheregion.ChinafacedlocustswarmsduringJuly.
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2010as[near]warmestonrecord
CalendarYear
AccordingtoNOAA,thegloballyaveragedtemperaturefor2010willfinishamongthetwowarmest,andlikelythewarmest,onrecord.Threemonthsin2010werethewarmestonrecordforthatmonth.
3PakistaniFlooding
LateJulyintoAugust
RainfallrelatedtotheAsianMonsoonwasdisplacedunusuallywestward,andmorethanafootofrainfellacrossalargeareaoftheUpperIndusValley.SubsequentfloodingdowntheIndusRiverkilled1,600peopleanddisplacedmillions.
4ElNiotoLaNiaTransition
MidtoLateBorealSpring
ENSO,themostprominentandfarreachingpatternsofclimatevariability,sawahugeswinginmid2010.Only1973,1983and1998haveseenlargerwithinyearswings.
5NegativeArcticOscillation
DecemberFebruary
TheAOIndex,whichisstronglycorrelatedwithwintertimecoldairoutbreaks,reached4.27forFebruary,thelargestnegativeanomalysincerecordsbeganin1950.MajorcoldairoutbreaksoccurredthroughouttheNorthernHemisphere.
6BrazilianDrought
Ongoing
AseveredroughtparchingnorthernBrazilshrunktheRioNegro,oneoftheAmazonRiver'smostimportanttributaries,toitslowestlevelsincerecordsbeganin1902atitsconfluencewiththeAmazon.TheAmazon'sdepththerefellmorethan12feetbelowitsaverage.
7tie
HistoricallyInactiveNEPacificHurricane
May15 November30
TheNortheastPacificHurricaneSeasonwasoneoftheleastactiveonrecord,producedthefewestnamedstormsandhurricanesofthemodernera,andhadtheearliestcessationoftropicalactivity(Sep23)onrecord.
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Source:TopTenGlobalWeather/ClimateEventsof2010NationalClimaticDataCenter,NOAA,December2010
TheselistswerecompiledandvotedonduringthefirstweekofDecember.Significantevents,suchastheextremewinterweatherinEuropeandthefloodinginAustraliaoccurredafterthisdate.Theseeventshavebeenincludedinanadditionalsectiontitled,HonorableMention,butmayhavewarrantedtoptenplacement.
Seasononrecord.
7tieHistoricN.HemisphericSnowRetreat
JanuarythroughJune
DespiteDecember2009havingthesecondlargestsnowcoverextentof
thesatelliterecord(mid1960s),themeltseasonwasferocious,contributingtospringfloodsintheNorthernU.S.andCanada.Followingtheearlyandpronouncedsnowmelt,theNorthAmerican,EurasianandHemisphericsnowcoverwasthesmallestonrecordforMayandJune2010.
9MinimumSeaIceExtent
MidSeptember
The2010seaiceminimumof4.9millionsqkmwasthethirdsmallestonrecord.Thelastfouryears(20072010)arethefoursmallestonrecord.TheNorthwestPassageandtheNorthernSeaRouteweresimultaneouslyicefreeinSeptember,afirstinmodernhistory.
10ChinaDrought
Firsthalfof2010
ApersistentdroughtcenteredintheYunanProvincewastoutedasperhapstheworstinthisregioninmorethan100years.Majorcroplossesandlackofdrinkingwatercreatedsevereproblemsforlocalresidents.
EcosystemImpacts
Withglobalwarmingontheincreaseandspecieshabitatsonthedecrease,thechancesforvariousecosystemstoadaptnaturallyarediminishing.
Manystudieshavepointedoutthattheratesofextinctionofanimalandplantspecies,andthetemperaturechangesaroundtheworldsincetheindustrialrevolution,havebeensignificantlydifferenttonormalexpectations.
Ananalysisofpopulationtrends,climatechange,increasingpollutionandemergingdiseasesfoundthat40percentofdeathsintheworldcouldbeattributedtoenvironmentalfactors.
JaanSuurkula,M.D.andchairmanofPhysiciansandScientistsforResponsibleApplicationofScienceandTechnology(PSRAST),paintsadirepicture,butnotesthatheisonlycitingobservationsandconclusionsfromestablishedexpertsandinstitutions.Thoseobservationsandconclusionsnotethatglobalwarmingwillleadtothefollowingsituations,amongstothers:
RapidglobalheatingaccordingtoaUSNationalAcademyofSciencewarningDramaticincreaseingreenhousegasemissionsOzonelossaggravatedbyglobalwarming
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OzonelosslikelytoaggravateglobalwarmingWarmingoftheoceansleadstoincreasedgreenhousegassesPermafrostthawingwillaggravateglobalwarmingOceanicchangesobservedthatmayaggravatethesituationAviciouscirclewherebyeachproblemwillexacerbateotherproblemswhichwillfeedbackintoeachotherMassiveextinctionofspecieswillaggravatetheenvironmentalcrisisSuddencollapseofbiologicalandecologicalsystemsmayoccur,butwillhaveaveryslowrecoveryWhileeffectivemeasurescandecreaseglobalwarmingandotherproblemstheWorldcommunityhasrepeatedlyfailedtoestablishcooperation.
TheviciouscircleSuurkulareferstoisworthexpanding.Inhisownwords,butslightlyreformatted:
Theongoingaccumulationofgreenhousegassescausesincreasingglobalwarming.
Thiscausesamoreextensivedestructionofozoneinthepolarregionsbecauseofaccentuatedstratosphericcooling.
AnincreaseofozonedestructionincreasestheUVradiationthat,combinedwithhigheroceantemperature,causesareductionofthegiganticcarbondioxidetrappingmechanismoftheoceanicphytoplanktonbiomassThisaccentuatesthewarmingprocess.
Whenthewarminghasreachedacertainlevel,itwillreleasehugeamountsofgreenhousegassestrappedinthepermafrost.
Thiswillenhancetheglobalwarming,andthepolardestructionofozone,andsoon.
Theobserveddecreaseofthethermohalinecirculation[thevariousstreamsthattransportwarmandcoldwatersaroundtheworldandthereforehasanimportantstabilizingeffectonworldclimate]furtheraggravatesthesituation.
Thisisaglobalselfreinforcingviciouscircleacceleratingtheglobalwarming.
JaanSuurkula,WorldwidecooperationrequiredtopreventglobalcrisisPartonetheproblem,PhysiciansandScientistsforResponsibleApplicationofScienceandTechnology,February6,2004
RisingSeaLevels
Waterexpandswhenheated,andsealevelsareexpectedtoriseduetoclimatechange.Risingsealevelswillalsoresultasthepolarcapsbegintomelt.
Risingsealevelsisalreadyaffectingmanysmallislands.
TheWorldWatchInstitutereportsthat[t]heEarthsicecoverismeltinginmoreplacesandathigherratesthanatanytimesincerecordkeepingbegan.(March6,2000).
Risingsealevelswillimpactmanycoastlines,andalargemassofhumanitylivesnearthecoastsorbymajorrivers.AnalysisbytheWorldWildlifeFundhasfoundthatmanycitiesareunpreparedforclimatechangeeffectssuchasrisingsealevels.
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Video:NOAAOceanAcidificationDemonstration,NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,February
26,2010
Video:Shortoverviewofoceanacidification:OceanAcidification,ABCWorldNewsWebcast,June7,2008
Increasingoceanacidification
OceanAcidificationconsumptionofcarbonateionsimpedecalcification.Source:PacificMarineEnvironmentLaboratory,NOAA
Althoughithasgainedlessmainstreammediaattention,theeffectsofincreasinggreenhouseemissionsinparticularcarbondioxideontheoceansmaywellbesignificant.
AsexplainedbytheUSagency,theNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),thebasicchemistryofoceanacidificationiswellunderstood.
Thesearethe3mainconcepts:
1. MoreCO2intheatmospheremeansmoreCO2intheocean
2. AtmosphericCO2isdissolvedintheocean,whichbecomesmoreacidicand
3. Theresultingchangesinthechemistryoftheoceansdisruptstheabilityofplantsandanimalsintheseatomakeshellsandskeletonsofcalciumcarbonate,whiledissolvingshellsalreadyformed.
ScientistshavefoundthatoceansareabletoabsorbsomeoftheexcessCO2releasedbyhumanactivity.Thishashelpedkeepthe
planetcoolerthanitotherwisecouldhavebeenhadthesegasesremainedintheatmosphere.
However,theadditionalexcessCO2beingabsorbedisalsoresultingintheacidificationoftheoceans:
WhenCO2reactswithwateritproducesaweakacidcalledcarbonicacid,changingtheseawaterchemistry.
AstheGlobalBiodiversityOutlookreportexplains,thewaterissome30%moreacidicthanpreindustrialtimes,depletingcarbonateionsthebuildingblocksformanymarineorganisms.
Inaddition,concentrationsofcarbonateionsarenowlowerthanatanytimeduringthelast800,000years.Theimpactsonoceanbiologicaldiversityandecosystemfunctioningwilllikelybesevere,thoughtheprecisetiminganddistributionoftheseimpactsareuncertain.(Seep.58ofthereport.)
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Video:Clayanimationbyschoolchildren:TheotherCO2problem,March23,2009(commissionedbyEPOCA)
AlthoughmillionsofyearsagoCO2levelswerehigher,todayschangeisoccurringrapidly,givingmany
marineorganismstoolittletimetoadapt.Somemarinecreaturesaregrowingthinnershellsorskeletons,forexample.Someofthesecreaturesplayacrucialroleinthefoodchain,andinecosystembiodiversity.
Somespeciesmaybenefitfromtheextracarbondioxide,andafewyearsagoscientistsandorganizations,suchastheEuropeanProjectonOCeanAcidification,formedtotrytounderstandandassesstheimpactsfurther.
Oneexampleofrecentfindingsisatinysandgrainsizedplanktonresponsibleforthesequestrationof2550%ofthecarbontheoceansabsorbisaffectedbyincreasingoceanacidification.Thistinyplanktonplaysamajorroleinkeepingatmosphericcarbondioxide(CO2)concentrationsatmuchlowerlevelsthantheywouldbeotherwisesolargeeffectsonthemcouldbequiteserious.
OtherrelatedproblemsreportedbytheInterPressServiceincludemoreoceanicdeadzones(areaswherethereistoolittleoxygenintheseatosupportlife)andthedeclineofimportantcoastalplantsandforests,suchasmangroveforeststhatplayanimportantroleincarbonabsorption.Thisisontopofthealreadydecliningoceanbiodiversitythathasbeenhappeningforafewdecades,now.
Scientistsnowbelievethatoceanacidificationisunparalleledinthelast300millionyears,raisingthepossibilitythatweareenteringanunknownterritoryofmarineecosystemchange.
IncreaseinPestsandDisease
Anincreaseinpestsanddiseaseisalsofeared.
AreportinthejournalScienceinJune2002describedthealarmingincreaseintheoutbreaksandepidemicsofdiseasesthroughoutthelandandoceanbasedwildlifeduetoclimatechanges.
Oneoftheauthorspointsoutthat,Climatechangeisdisruptingnaturalecosystemsinawaythatismakinglifebetterforinfectiousdiseases.
FailingAgriculturalOutputIncreaseinWorldHunger
TheGuardiansummarizesaUnitedNationswarningthat,Oneinsixcountriesintheworldfacefoodshortagesthisyearbecauseofseveredroughtsthatcouldbecomesemipermanentunderclimatechange.
Droughtanddesertificationarestartingtospreadandintensifyinsomepartsoftheworldalready.
Agricultureandlivelihoodsarealreadybeingaffected
Failingagricultureinthefuturehavelongbeenpredicted.
Lookingto2100,scientistswholookedatprojectionsofglobalwarmingsimpactontheaveragetemperaturesduringthegrowingseasonfearthatrisingtemperatureswillhaveasignificantimpactuponcropyields,mostnoticeablyinthetropicsandsubtropics.
Whilewarmweathercanoftenbegoodforsomecrops,hotterthanaveragetemperaturesfortheentire
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Video:FoodandGlobalWarming,ScienCentral,January7,2009
seasonisoftennotgoodforplants.
Thiswouldaffectatleasthalftheworldspopulationthateitherliveintheregionorrelyonfoodcomingfromthatregion.
IRIN(IntegratedRegionalInformationNetworks),partoftheUnitedNations,hasproducedaseriesofshortvideosshowinghowsomeregionsarealreadybeingaffectedbyclimatechangeandaretryingtoadaptasaresult:
ChangingcropsMeltingglaciersWorseningfloodsCreepingdeserts
OneexampleisfarmersinNepalfindingthatcultivatingriceisntasproductiveasbefore,andarechangingtoothercropsasaresult:
Video:SwappingCropsClimateChange,IRIN,June28,2009
IntheHimalayas,meltingglaciersmeanslesswaterforlocalvillages:
Video:MeltingGlaciersClimateChange,IRIN,June25,2009
(SouthAsiaingeneralisalsoseriouslyaffectedbyrapidlyretreatingHimalayanglacierswhichfeedthemightyriversthathavecreatedthevariousSouthAsiancivilizations.)
InMozambique,rainsarebecomingheavierandcausingfloods,whichaffectcropsandpeopleslivelihoodsastheyaredisplacedandhavetochangetheirwayoflifequickly.
Video:FloodingRiversinMozambique,IRIN,January21,2009
Itisfearedthatglobally,therewillbemassmigrationsinthefutureasclimatechangemakesconditionsworseinsomeregionsoftheworld,andthesechallengeswillplayitselfoutonamuchlargerscale,withmuchmorehumanmovement.(AndifWesternattitudestowardsimmigrationarenegativenow,theycouldbeevenworseinthefuture.)
InMauritania,bycontrast,thereistheproblemofincreasingdesertification,creepingeverclosertopeoplewhohavehadtochangetheirwayoflife,focusingmoreonsearchingforwater.
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Video:WomenandClimateChangeinBolivia,UNFPA,November2009
Video:WomenandClimateChangeinVietnam,UNFPA,November2009
Video:CreepingDesertsinMauritania,IRIN,January21,2009
Insomecases,improvedagriculturaltechniquesmayhelp,suchasrainwaterharvestinganddripirrigation.Somealsobelievegeneticallymodifiedcropsmaybeessentialtodealwithchangingclimates.Yet,therearemanyothercrucialissuesthataffectagriculture,suchaspoverty,politicalandeconomiccausesofworldhunger,globaltradepolicies(whichcreateunequaltradeandaffectthepoorestcountriesthemost),etc.
SeeIRINsvideosonclimatechangeimpactsinAfricaandAsiaformoreshortclips.
Womenfacebruntofclimatechangeimpacts
Itisrecognizedthatpoorernationswillsuffertheworstfromclimatechange,eitherbecauseofgeographicalreasons,and/orbecausetheywillhavelessresourcestocopewithaproblem(mostlycausedbyemissionsfromrichcountriesoverthepastdecades).
Inadditiontopoorcountries,womenarelikelytosuffertheworst,astheUnitedNationsPopulationfundexplains:
Womenparticularlythoseinpoorcountrieswillbeaffecteddifferentlythanmen.Theyareamongthemostvulnerabletoclimatechange,partlybecauseinmanycountriestheymakeupthelargershareoftheagriculturalworkforceandpartlybecausetheytendtohaveaccesstofewerincomeearningopportunities.Womenmanagehouseholdsandcareforfamilymembers,whichoftenlimitstheirmobilityandincreasestheirvulnerabilitytosuddenweatherrelatednaturaldisasters.Droughtanderraticrainfallforcewomentoworkhardertosecurefood,waterandenergyfortheirhomes.Girlsdropoutofschooltohelptheirmotherswiththesetasks.Thiscycleofdeprivation,povertyandinequalityunderminesthesocialcapitalneededtodealeffectivelywithclimatechange.
Facingachangingworld:women,populationandclimate ,StateoftheWorldsPopulation2009,UNFPA,November18,2009,p.4
TheUNFPAalsocapturesthisinsomevideosthataccompaniedtheir2009report.
ThefirstoneistheabovedescribedeffectsoccurringinruralareasofBolivia.ThesecondoneisontheimpactonwomeninVietnam.
Greenhousegasesandemissionsresultingfromhumanactivity
Everyfewyears,leadingclimatescientistsattheUNsIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)havereleasedmajor,definitivereportsdetailingtheprogressinunderstandingclimatechange.Fromthe
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outsettheyhaverecommendedthattherebeemissionreductions.Thisbodyiscomprisedofhundredsofclimatescientistsaroundtheworld.
AtthebeginningofJanuary2007,theIPCCsfourthmajorreportsummarizedthattheywereevenmorecertainthanbeforeofhumaninducedclimatechangebecauseofbetterscientificunderstanding:
Globalatmosphericconcentrationsofcarbondioxide,methaneandnitrousoxidehaveincreasedmarkedlyasaresultofhumanactivitiessince1750andnowfarexceedpreindustrialvaluesdeterminedfromicecoresspanningmanythousandsofyears.Theglobalincreasesincarbondioxideconcentrationaredueprimarilytofossilfueluseandlandusechange,whilethoseofmethaneandnitrousoxideareprimarilyduetoagriculture.
TheunderstandingofanthropogenicwarmingandcoolinginfluencesonclimatehasimprovedsincetheThirdAssessmentReport(TAR),leadingtoveryhighconfidencethatthegloballyaveragedneteffectofhumanactivitiessince1750hasbeenoneofwarming.
Mostoftheobservedincreaseingloballyaveragedtemperaturessincethemid20thcenturyisverylikelyduetotheobservedincreaseinanthropogenicgreenhousegasconcentrations.
ClimateChange2007:ThePhysicalScienceBasisSummaryforPolicymakers ,IPCC,February5th,2007[emphasisisoriginal]
Theirdefinitionofveryhighconfidenceandverylikelyisa90%chanceofbeingcorrect.(Their2001reportclaimeda66%certainty.)
Thisreportwasproducedbysome600authorsfrom40countries.Over620expertreviewersandalargenumberofgovernmentreviewersalsoparticipated,accordingtotheIPCCsmediaadvisory.
AsInterPressServicenotes,althoughtheIPCChasbecomethegoldstandardforglobalscientificcollaboration,theirreportsareinherentlyconservative:
TheIPCCoperatesundertheWorldMeteorologicalOrganisation(WMO)andtheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP)anddoesnotfundanyresearchitself.Itcollects,evaluatesandsynthesisesscientificdata.AnyU.N.countrycanbeamemberoftheIPCCandcanchallengethefindingsinitsreports.AndconsensusisrequiredforeverywordintheSummaryforPolicyMakerssectionincludedineachreport.
Itsaninherentlyconservativeprocess,withoilrichcountrieslikeKuwaitandSaudiArabiaalwaystryingtotonedowntheconclusionsandemphasiseuncertaintiesandunknowns,saidWeaver.
StephenLeahy,EndlessSummerNotAsNiceAsItSounds,InterPressService,January25,2007
DifferencesinGreenhouseGasEmissionAroundtheWorld
AstheWorldResourcesInstitutehighlightsthereisahugecontrastbetweendeveloped/industrializednationsandpoorerdevelopingcountriesingreenhouseemissions,aswellasthereasonsforthose
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emissions.Forexample:
Intermsofhistoricalemissions,industrializedcountriesaccountforroughly80%ofthecarbondioxidebuildupintheatmospheretodate.Since1950,theU.S.hasemittedacumulativetotalofroughly50.7billiontonsofcarbon,whileChina(4.6timesmorepopulous)andIndia(3.5timesmorepopulous)haveemittedonly15.7and4.2billiontonsrespectively(althoughtheirnumberswillrise).Annually,morethan60percentofglobalindustrialcarbondioxideemissionsoriginateinindustrializedcountries,whereonlyabout20percentoftheworldspopulationresides.Muchofthegrowthinemissionsindevelopingcountriesresultsfromtheprovisionofbasichumanneedsforgrowingpopulations,whileemissionsinindustrializedcountriescontributetogrowthinastandardoflivingthatisalreadyfarabovethatoftheaveragepersonworldwide.Thisisexemplifiedbythelargecontrastsinpercapitacarbonsemissionsbetweenindustrializedanddevelopingcountries.PercapitaemissionsofcarbonintheU.S.areover20timeshigherthanIndia,12timeshigherthanBrazilandseventimeshigherthanChina.
Atthe1997KyotoConference,industrializedcountrieswerecommittedtoanoverallreductionofemissionsofgreenhousegasesto5.2%below1990levelsfortheperiod20082012.(TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)saidinits1990reportthata60%reductioninemissionswasneeded)
TheEconomicsofEcosystemsandBiodiversity(TEEB)isanorganizationbackedbytheUNandvariousEuropeangovernmentsattemptingtocompile,buildandmakeacompellingeconomicscasefortheconservationofecosystemsandbiodiversity.
InareporttitledTheEconomicsofEcosystemsandBiodiversityforNationalandInternationalPolicyMakers2009,TEEBnoteddifferenttypesofcarbonemissionsascolorsofcarbon:
BrowncarbonIndustrialemissionsofgreenhousegasesthataffecttheclimate.
GreencarbonCarbonstoredinterrestrialecosystemse.g.plantbiomass,soils,wetlandsandpastureandincreasinglyrecognizedasakeyitemfornegotiationintheUNFCCC.
BluecarbonCarbonboundintheworldsoceans.Anestimated55%ofallcarboninlivingorganismsisstoredinmangroves,marshes,seagrasses,coralreefsandmacroalgae.
BlackcarbonFormedthroughincompletecombustionoffuelsandmaybesignificantlyreducedifcleanburningtechnologiesareemployed.
Butamitigationapproachneedstoconsideralltheseformsofcarbontheynote,notjustoneortwo:
Pastmitigationeffortsconcentratedonbrowncarbon,sometimesleadingtolandconversionforbiofuelproductionwhichinadvertentlyincreasedemissionsfromgreencarbon.Byhaltingthelossofgreenandbluecarbon,theworldcouldmitigateasmuchas25%oftotalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionswithcobenefitsforbiodiversity,food
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securityandlivelihoods(IPCC2007,Nellemannetal.2009).Thiswillonlybepossibleifmitigationeffortsaccommodateallfourcarboncolors.
TheEconomicsofEcosystemsandBiodiversityforNationalandInternationalPolicyMakers2009,p.18
TheUnitedStatesistheWorldsLargestEmitterofGreenhouseGasesPerCapita
Around2007,ChinasurpassedtheUSastheworldslargestemitterofgreenhousegasesintermsoftotaloutput.Perperson(percapita),however,Chinasemissionsaremuchsmaller.
Untilrecently,theUnitedStateswastheworldslargestemitterofgreenhousegases.However,itremainsthelargestemitterwhenmeasuredintermsofemissionsperperson.
Duetoitsmuchlongerperiodofindustrialization,theUShasemittedfarmoreintotheatmospherethanChina(greenhousegasessuchasCO2lingeronintheatmospherefordecades).
Inaddition,theUS:
AccountsforroughlyfourpercentoftheworldspopulationAccountsforapproximately20%ofglobalemissionsandsome40%ofindustrializedcountryemissions
Thepreviously15memberEuropeanUnionisalsolargeEmitter
Thepreviously15membernationsEuropeanUnion(E.U.),ifconsideredasawhole(foritismorecomparabletotheU.S.):
Accountsforroughly3percentoftheworldspopulationAccountsforaround10%ofglobalemissionsand24%ofindustrializedcountriesmanmadeemissionsofthesixmaingasesRecentyearshaveseenareductioninemissionsfromthoseinitial15memberstates.However,
ItisnotnearthelevelrequiredForthesecondconsecutiveyear,in2003,emissionsfromEUcountrieshaveactuallyincreasedslightly(thoughstillremainingslightlylowerthan1990levels).
StallingKyotoProtocolGetsPushbyRussia
TheKyotoProtocolwastheclimatechangetreatynegotiatedin1997,settingtargetsforemissionsofgreenhousegases.
Inordertobebindingunderinternationallaw,thetreatywouldneedratificationfromthecountriesresponsibleforaround55%oftheglobalgreenhousegasemissionsof1990.
TheU.S.beingtheworldslargestemitterofgreenhousegases,pulledoutin2001,leavingtreatyratificationdependentonRussia,responsiblefor17%ofworldemissions.Russiahastocutemissionlevels
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fromtheSovietdays,andtheiremissionsinthepastdecadehasbeenfarless,soitshouldnotposeasmuchofaproblemtoreducesuchemissions.
Notingtheabove,theBBCcommentedonthisaddingthatKyotowasonlyeverafirststepnowdiscussionsonthenext,morestringent,targetongreenhousegasemissionscanbegin.
CanadapullsoutofKyoto
OnDecember132011,CanadapulledoutoftheKyotoclimatetreatywhichitislegallyallowedtodotocondemnationdomesticallyandinternationally.Oneofthemainconcernshadbeenthecosttothetaxpayer:(CAN)$14bn.
Yet,theeconomiccostsofinactionareinthetrillions:
Economicstudieshaveconsistentlyshownthatmitigation(suchasputtingapriceoncarbonemissions)isseveraltimeslesscostlythantryingtoadapttoclimatechange.Theabovechartshowstotalcostsforactiononclimatechangeby2100tobeabout$11trillionwhiledamageswillbeabout$8trillion.Withinaction,however,damagesby2100willbearound$20trillion.By2200,thesenumbersshootup(over$30trillionifactiontaken,orover$70ifnoactiontaken).Source:Theeconomicimpactsofcarbon
pricing,SkepticalScience.com,March1,2012
(SomebelieveoneofCanadasmotivationstoleaveKyotowasonitsdesiretoprotectthelucrativebuthighlypollutingexploitationoftarsands,thesecondbiggestoilreserveintheworld,asTheGuardianhadnoted.)
Richnationemissionshavebeenrising
TheUNFCCCreported(November17,2008)thatalthoughindustrializednationshavereducedemissions
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between1990and2006,inrecentyears,between2000and2006,greenhousegasemissionshave
generallyincreasedby2.3% .
SideNote
Thisisdespiteanoveralldecreaseof4.7%since1990.However,themorerecentperiodsuggeststherichcountryemissionreductionsarenotsustainable.Furthermore,itlooksworseconsideringalargepartofthisdecreaseisbecauseofthecollapseoftheSovietUnion.Astransitioneconomiesstartedtorecoveraround2000,emissionshavestartedtorise.
Somenationswithlargereductionsarealsoseeinglimits,forexample:
UK(15.1%reduction)benefitedbyswitchingfromcoaltonaturalgasbutthatswitchislargelyinplacenow.Germany(18.2%reduction)hascertainlyinvestedingreenhousegasemissionreductions,buthasbeenhelpedinlargepartbecauseofreunification(EastGermany,likemuchofeasternEuropeandformerSovietstateshadeconomicproblems,hencelessemissionsatthetime).OtherreductionshavecomeinpartfromrelocatingmanufacturingtootherplacessuchasChina,whichnowclaimsatleastonethirdofitsemissionsarebecauseofproductionforothers.
(SeealsothisClimateChangePerformanceIndexfromGermanWatchandClimateActionNetworkEurope,whichattemptstorankover57nationsthataccountfor90%oftheworldstotalgreenhousegasemissions,includingindustrializednationsandemergingeconomies.)
RichNationsHaveOutsourcedTheirCarbonEmissions
Globaltradeisanimportantfeatureofthemodernworld.Theproductionandglobaldistributionofmanufacturedproductsthusformalargeportionofglobalhumancarbonemissions.
TheKyotoProtocolassignscarbonemissionstocountriesbasedonwhereproductiontakesplaceratherthanwherethingsareconsumed.
Formanyyears,criticsoftheKyotoProtocolhavelongarguedthatthismeansrichcountries,whohaveoutsourcedmuchoftheirmanufacturingtodevelopingnationshaveanaccountingtricktheycanusetoshowmoreemissionsreductionthandevelopingnations.
TheBBCnotedbackin2005thatthisoutsourcingwasalreadytakingplace,butthisideastartedwaybeforetheKyotoProtocolcameintobeing.
In1991LarrySummers,thenChiefEconomistfortheWorldBank(andUSTreasurySecretary,intheClintonAdministration,untilGeorgeBushandtheRepublicanpartycameintopower),hadbeenastrongbackerofstructuraladjustmentpolicies.Hewroteinaninternalmemo:
Justbetweenyouandme,shouldnttheWorldBankbeencouragingmoremigrationofdirtyindustriestotheLDCs[lessdevelopedcountries]?Theeconomiclogicbehinddumpingaloadoftoxicwasteinthelowestwagecountryisimpeccable,andweshouldface
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uptothatUnderpopulatedcountriesinAfricaarevastlyunderpollutedtheirairqualityisprobablyvastlyinefficientlylowcomparedtoLosAngelesorMexicoCityTheconcernoveranagentthatcausesaoneinamillionchangeintheoddsofprostatecancerisobviouslygoingtobemuchhigherinacountrywherepeoplesurvivetogetprostatecancerthaninacountrywhereunderfivemortalityis200perthousand.
LawrenceSummers,Letthemeatpollution,TheEconomist,February8,1992.QuotedfromVandanaShiva,StolenHarvest,(SouthEndPress,2000)p.65SeealsoRichardRobbins,GlobalProblemsandthe
CultureofCapitalism(AllynandBacon,1999),pp.233236foradetailedlookatthis.
Althoughthediscussionabovewasntaboutcarbonemissions,theintentionwasthesame:ratherthandirectlyaddresstheproblem,offshoringdirtyindustriestothedevelopingnationsandletthemdealwithit.
Morerecently,TheGuardianprovidedausefulsummaryoftheimpactsofthisapproach:carbonemissionscutsbydevelopedcountriessince1990havebeencanceledoutbyincreasesinimportedgoodsfromdevelopingcountriesmanytimesover.
TheyweresummarizingglobalfigurescompiledandpublishedintheProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciencesoftheUS.AndthefindingsseemedtovindicatewhatmanyenvironmentalgroupshadsaidformanyyearsabouttheKyotoProtocolasnotedearlier.
Inmoredetail:
Accordingtostandarddata,developedcountriescanclaimtohavereducedtheircollectiveemissionsbyalmost2%between1990and2008.Butoncethecarboncostofimportshavebeenaddedtoeachcountry,andexportssubtractedthetruechangehasbeenanincreaseof7%.IfRussiaandUkrainewhichcuttheirCO2emissionsrapidlyinthe1990sduetoeconomiccollapseareexcluded,theriseis12%.
MuchoftheincreaseinemissionsinthedevelopedworldisduetotheUS,whichpromiseda7%cutunderKyotobutthendidnottoratifytheprotocol.Emissionswithinitsbordersincreasedby17%between1990and2008andby25%whenimportsandexportsarefactoredin.
Inthesameperiod,UKemissionsfellby28milliontonnes,butwhenimportsandexportsaretakenintoaccount,thedomesticfootprinthasrisenbymorethan100milliontonnes.Europeachieveda6%cutinCO2emissions,butwhenoutsourcingisconsideredthatisreducedto1%.
Thestudyshowsaverydifferentpictureforcountriesthatexportmorecarbonintensivegoodsthantheyimport.China,whosegrowthhasbeendrivenbyexportbasedindustries,isusuallydescribedastheworld'slargestemitterofCO2,butitsfootprintdropsbyalmostafifthwhenitsimportsandexportsaretakenintoaccount,puttingitfirmlybehindtheUS.
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Chinaaloneaccountsforamassive75%ofthedevelopedworld'soffshoredemissions,accordingtothepaper.
DuncanClark,Carboncutsbydevelopedcountriescancelledoutbyimportedgoods,TheGuardian,April25,2011
Inaddition,asClimateNewsNetworknotes,AsiancountrieshavebeencuttingemissionsfasterthanEuropeandtheUS.Atthesametime,therearesignsofprogressinEuropeandtheUS,too.Germanyforexampleisknowntobepushingforrenewablesmorethanmost.WhilerecentlytheUShasseenadropincarbonemissionswhileseeingsomeeconomicgrowth.
DevelopingCountriesAffectedMost
Ithasbeenknownforsometimeknowthatdevelopingcountrieswillbeaffectedthemost.Reasonsvaryfromlackingresourcestocope,comparedtodevelopednations,immensepoverty,regionsthatmanydevelopingcountriesareinhappentobetheoneswheresevereweatherwillhitthemost,smallislandnationsareaalreadyseeingsealevelrising,andsoon.
GermanWatchpublishedaGlobalClimateRiskIndexattheendof2011listingnationsthatwouldbeaffectedthemostfromclimatechangebasedonextremeweathersuchashurricanesandfloods.
Between1991and2010theyfoundthesewerethemostaffectednations:
1. Bangladesh2. Myanmar3. Honduras4. Nicaragua5. Haiti6. Vietnam7. DominicanRepublic8. Pakistan9. Korea,DPR10. Philippines
MuchofAsia,aswellaswealthierareassuchastheUS,RussiaandAustraliahavealsoexperiencedspecificincidentsofverydamagingextremeweatherthattheclimateriskindexcaptures:
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Weatherrelatedlosseventsandtheirimpactsoncountriesin2010and1991to2010ClimateRiskIndex2012,ClimateWatch,November29,2011(Clickimageforlarger
version)
Into2013,Novembersawpossiblythelargestevertyphoon,Hiayan,makelandfallandcauseincredibledevastationtopartsofthePhilippineswithatleast10,000feareddeadandmorethan9millionaffected.
GeostationarysatellitesoftheJapanMeteorologicalAgency(MTSat2)andEUMETSAT(Meteosat7)capturedtheextraordinarysizeoftyphoonHiayanasit
approachedthePhilippines.Source.2013JMA/EUMETSAT.
HiayanstruckjustdaysbeforethestartofamajorUNconferenceonclimatechangeperhapsactingasawakeupcalltothenegotiatorsregardingpotentialimpactsofinaction.Whilenosingleeventcaneasilybeattributedtoclimatechange,astheInstituteforPublicAccuracynotes,thisdevastatingtyphoondemonstrateshowtheGlobalSouthpaysthepriceforemissionshistoricallyfromtheNorth.
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AnneWardPenguin
Greenhousegasemissionscontinuetorise
TheWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)notedinNovember2013thattheamountofgreenhousegasesintheatmospherereachedanewrecordhighin2012,continuinganupwardandacceleratingtrendwhichisdrivingclimatechangeandwillshapethefutureofourplanetforhundredsandthousandsofyears.
Carbondioxide,mainlyfromfossilfuelrelatedemissions,accountedfor80%ofthisincrease.TheatmosphericincreaseofCO2from2011to2012washigherthanitsaveragegrowthrateoverthepasttenyears.
(TheInternationalEnergyAgency,IEA,alsoreportedthisearlierintheyear.)
Sodespiteincreasedglobalwarmingconcernsandcallsforaction,littleseemstohavebeenachievedduetothepoliticalchallenges,andskepticismthatabounds.
SkepticismonGlobalWarmingorThatitcanbehumaninduced
Foraverylongtime,somethingofcontentionanddebateintheU.S.hadbeenwhetherornotalotofclimatechangehasinfactbeeninducedbyhumanactivities,whilemanyscientistsaroundtheworld,Europeespecially,havebeenmoreconvincedthatthisisthecase.
InMay2002,theBushAdministrationintheU.S.didadmitalinkbetweenhumanactivitiesandclimatechange.However,atthesametimetheadministrationhascontinueditscontroversialstanceofmaintainingthatitwillnotparticipateintheinternationaltreatytolimitglobalwarming,theKyotoProtocol,duetoeconomicprioritiesandconcerns.(MoreabouttheKyotoProtocol,U.S.andothersactions/inactionsisdiscussedinsubsequentpagesonthissection.)
Throughoutthe1990s,especiallyintheUnitedStates,butinothercountriesaswell,thosewhowouldtryandraisetheimportanceofthisissue,andsuggestthatweareperhapsoverconsuming,orunsustainablyusingourresourcesetc,werefacedwithalotofcriticismandridicule.ThepreviouslinkistoanarticlebyGeorgeMonbiot,writingin1999.In2004,henotesasimilarissue,wherebymediaattemptsatbalancehasledtofalsebalancingwheredisproportionatetimeisgiventomorefringescientistsorthosewithlesscredibilityorwithadditionalagendas,withoutnotingso,andthusgivestheimpressionthatthereismoredebateinthescientificcommunityaboutwhetherornotclimatechangeisanissuetobeconcernedaboutornot:
Pictureasituationinwhichmostofthemedia,despitetheoverwhelmingweightofmedicalopinion,refusedtoacceptthattherewasaconnectionbetweensmokingandlungcancer.
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Imaginethateverytimenewevidenceemerged,theyaskedsomeonewithnomedicalqualificationstowriteapiecedismissingtheevidenceandclaimingthattherewasnoconsensusontheissue.
ImaginethattheBBC,intheinterestsofdebate,wheeledoutoneofthetinynumberofscientistswhosaysthatsmokingandcancerarentlinked,orthatgivingupisntworththetrouble,everytimetheissueofcancerwasraised.
Imaginethat,asaresult,nexttonothingwasdoneabouttheproblem,tothedelightofthetobaccoindustryandthedetrimentofmillionsofsmokers.WewouldsurelydescribethenewspapersandtheBBCasgrosslyirresponsible.
Nowstopimaginingit,andtakealookatwhatshappening.Theissueisnotsmoking,butclimatechange.Thescientificconsensusisjustasrobust,themisreportingjustaswidespread,theconsequencesevengraver.
Thescientificcommunityhasreachedaconsensus,the[U.K.]governmentschiefscientificadviser,ProfessorDavidKing,toldtheHouseofLordslastmonth.Idonotbelievethatamongstthescientiststhereisadiscussionastowhetherglobalwarmingisduetoanthropogeniceffects.
Itismanmadeanditisessentially[causedby]fossilfuelburning,increasedmethaneproductionandsoon.SirDavidchosehiswordscarefully.Thereisadiscussionaboutwhetherglobalwarmingisduetoanthropogenic(manmade)effects.Butitisnotorisonlyseldomtakingplaceamongscientists.Itistakingplaceinthemedia,anditseemstoconsistofacompetitiontoestablishtheouterreachesofimbecility.
Butthese[skepticsandillogicalpointsagainstclimatechange]areratherlessdangerousthantheBBC,anditsinsistenceonbalancingitscoverageofclimatechange.Itappearstobeincapableofrunninganitemonthesubjectwithoutinvitingasceptictocommentonit.
Usuallythisiseithersomeonefromacorporatefundedthinktank(whois,ofcourse,neverintroducedassuch)ortheprofessionalantienvironmentalistPhilipStott.ProfessorStottisaretiredbiogeographer.Likealmostalltheprominentscepticshehasneverpublishedapeerreviewedpaperonclimatechange.Buthehasmadehimselfavailabletodismissclimatologistspeerreviewedworkastheliesofecofundamentalists.
ThiswouldntbesoobjectionableiftheBBCmadeitclearthatthesepeoplearenotclimatologists,andtheoverwhelmingmajorityofqualifiedscientificopinionisagainstthem.Instead,itleavesuswiththeimpressionthatprofessionalopinionissplitdownthemiddle.ItsabitlikecontinuallybringingpeopleontotheprogrammetosuggestthatthereisnolinkbetweenHIVandAids.
Whatmakesallthissodangerousisthatitplaysintothehandsofcorporatelobbyists.A
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recentlyleakedmemowrittenbyFrankLuntz,theUSRepublicanandcorporatestrategist,warnedthatTheenvironmentisprobablythesingleissueonwhichRepublicansingeneralandPresidentBushinparticulararemostvulnerableShouldthepubliccometobelievethatthescientificissuesaresettled,theirviewsaboutglobalwarmingwillchangeaccordingly.Therefore,youneedtomakethelackofscientificcertaintyaprimaryissue.
GeorgeMonbiot,Bewarethefossilfools,TheGuardian,April27,2004
Monbiotscommentsabovewereover5yearsago(asofwriting),andyetsomeofthoseconcerns,especiallyaboutfalsebalancing,carryontoday.
GarySchmidtisaleadingclimateresearcherworkingforNASA.HeisalsoacontributortoRealClimate.org,ablogbyclimatescientiststhatattempttodispelmisinformationbyclimateskepticsandprovidebackgroundinformationoftenmissinginmainstreammedia.Inoneofhisposts,helamentsatthecontinualdiversioncausedbymisinformation:
Recentlytherehasbeenmoreofasensethattheissuesbeingdiscussed(inthemediaoronline)haveabitofagroundhogdayqualitytothem.Thesamenonsense,thesamelogicalfallacies,thesameconfusionsallseemtobeendlesslyrepeated.Thesamestrawmenarebeingconstructedanddemolishedasiftheywerepartofamakeworkschemeforthebuildingindustryattachedtothestimulusproposal.
GarySchmidt,GroundhogDay,RealClimate.org,June8,2009
However,(andperhapsbelatedly)thereisgrowingpublicacceptanceofhumaninducedclimatechangeasreportssuchastheUSGlobalChangeResearchProgramandtheUKMetOfficeassertthingslikecurrentclimatechangehappeningnowandhumaninducedandthattheywillcausemanyproblems.
But,aswellasgrowingacceptance,thereisalsoloudervocalopposition,andtherepeatednonsenseandlogicalfallaciesthatSchmidtwasconcernedaboutseemstohavehadaneffectuponthegeneralpublicintheUS,anywayfewerAmericansbelieveinglobalwarming(astheWashingtonPostheadlinedit.
Amongstscientists,however,thereislessskepticism:11%ofUSscientistsfromanyfielddisagreewithhumaninducedclimatechange,whileonly1%ofUSclimatologistsdisagree,accordingtothefollowing:
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ClimateChange:AConsensusAmongScientists?,informationisbeautiful.net,December23,2009
Askingwhoareamongthe11%ofskepticalscientistsamongstallsciencefields,almosthalfareengineers.
Formoredetailedinformation,thefollowingsitescanbeuseful:
Scienceblogs.comprovidesasummaryofthevariousclaimsofclimatechangedeniersgrist.orgprovidesasimilarlistasScienceBlogsRealClimate.orgisanauthoritativeblogmaintainedbysomeoftheworldsleadingclimatescientists.TheyoftenattempttoexplainverytechnicalissuestolaypeopleandoftentrytoaddresscommonmythsandotherclaimsSkepticalScienceisanotherblogthatlooksatvariousclaimsfromskepticsandaddressesthem.
BushAdministrationAccusedofSilencingitsownClimateScientists
AsrevealedtowardstheendofJanuary2006,NASAstopclimatescientistsaidNASAandtheBushAdministrationtriedtosilencehim.
WhileNASAsaidthiswasstandardproceduretoensureanorderlyflowofinformation,thescientist,Dr.JamesHansendisagreed,sayingthatsuchprocedureshadalreadypreventedthepublicfromfullygraspingrecentfindingsaboutclimatechangethatpointtorisksahead.
Dr.Hansen,accordingtotheNewYorkTimesreportingthis,notedthatthesewerefresheffortstosilencehimbecausehehadsaidthatsignificantemissioncutscouldbeachievedwithexistingtechnologies,particularlyinthecaseofmotorvehicles,andthatwithoutleadershipbytheUnitedStates,climatechangewouldeventuallyleavetheearthadifferentplanet.(Bycontrast,theBushadministrationspolicyistousevoluntarymeasurestoslow,butnotreverse,thegrowthofemissions.)
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Furthermore,AfterthatspeechandthereleaseofdatabyDr.HansenonDec.15showingthat2005wasprobablythewarmestyearinatleastacentury,officialsattheheadquartersofthespaceagencyrepeatedlyphonedpublicaffairsofficers,whorelayedthewarningtoDr.Hansenthattherewouldbedireconsequencesifsuchstatementscontinued,thoseofficersandDr.Hansensaidininterviews.
Earlier,in2004,Dr.HansenfelloutoffavorwiththeBushAdministrationforpubliclystatingbeforethepresidentialelectionsthatgovernmentscientistswerebeingmuzzledandthatheplannedtovoteforJohnKerry.
TheNewYorkTimesalsonotesthatthisechoesotherrecentdisputes,wherebymanyscientistswhoroutinelytookcallsfromreportersfiveyearsagocannowdosoonlyiftheinterviewisapprovedbyadministrationofficialsinWashington,andthenonlyifapublicaffairsofficerispresentoronthephone.
Furthermore,Wherescientistspointsofviewonclimatepolicyalignwiththoseoftheadministration,however,therearefewsignsofrestrictionsonextracurricularlecturesorwriting.
Andintermsofmediamanipulation,theTimesalsorevealedthatatleastoneinterview(amongstmanyothers)wascanceledbecauseitwaswithNPR,whichthepublicaffairsofficialresponsiblefeltwasthemostliberalmediaoutletinthecountry.Thisimpliesapoliticalbias/propagandaintermsofhowinformationisreleasedtothepublic,whichshouldbeofseriousconcern.
AtthebeginningofJune,2006,theBBCPanoramadocumentaryfolloweduponthisandfoundthatmanyscientistsfelttheywerebeingcensoredandthatvariousreportshadbeensystematicallysuppressed,evenaltered.Inonecase,amajorclimateassessmentreportwasdueoutamonthbeforethe2004presidentialelections,butwasdelayedbecauseithadsuchableakassessment,andtheBushadministrationdidnotwantittobepartoftheelectionissues.Itwasreleasedshortlyaftertheelectionswereover.
PanoramaalsointerviewedapollsterwhohadadvisedtheBushAdministrationwhentheycameintopowerin2000toquestionglobalwarming,thathumanscauseditifitexistedatall,tohireskepticalscientists,andplaydownitsimpacts.(TheadvisorhasnowdistancedhimselfawayfromtheBushAdministrationsstancetodaybecausehefeltthesciencewasmorecertainthanitwasin2000.)
JustweeksbeforehurricaneKatrinadevastatedpartsofSouthernUnitedStates,PanoramareportedthatAnotherscientistfromtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)hadresearchwhichestablishedglobalwarmingcouldincreasetheintensityofhurricanes.Hewasduetogiveaninterviewabouthisworkbutclaimshewasgagged.AfterKatrina,theNOAAwebsitesaidunusualhurricaneactivityisnotrelatedtoglobalwarming.WhenaleadingscientistwasaskedwhyNOAAcameoutwithsuchastatement,hesuggesteditwasideologicallydriven.
(TheBBCPanoramadocumentaryiscalledClimatechaos:Bushsclimateoffearandaswellasasummary,youcanwatchtheactualdocumentaryonline.)
Despiteattemptstodiscreditglobalwarmingconcerns,theBushAdministrationhasnowconcededthatthereisclimatechangeandthathumansarecontributingtoit,butPanoramareportsthatalotofvitaltimehasbeenlost,andthatsomescientistsfearUSpolicymaybetooslowtocarryout.
AlmostayearafterthestoryaboutattemptstosilenceNASAstopclimatescientist,manymediaoutletshavereportedonanewsurveywherehundredsofgovernmentscientistssaytheyhaveperceivedor
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Photo:fullcargoship.Credit:YP/Flickr
personallyexperiencedpressurefromtheBushadministrationtoeliminatephrasessuchasclimatechangeandglobalwarmingfromtheirreportsandpublicstatements.AUSgovernmenthearingintheUSisalsopursuingthisfurtherastheseriousnessofclimatechangeisbecomingmoreaccepted.
TherehasbeenasimilarconcerninAustralia.Atthebeginningof2006,theAustralianBroadcastingCompany(ABC)revealedthatsomebusinesslobbygroupshaveinfluencedtheAustraliangovernmenttopreventAustraliafromreducinggreenhousegasemissions.Thislobbygroupincludedinterestsfromthecoal,electricity,aluminum(aluminium),petroleum,mineralsandcementindustries.Thedocumentaryexposingthisrevealedpossiblecorruptionwithingovernmentduetoextremelyclosetieswithsuchindustriesandlobbygroups,andallegedsilencingofgovernmentclimatescientists.
Inwhatwouldseemtobeatwisttosuppressionofgovernmentreports,itwaswidelyclaimedthattheUSEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyhadsuppressedareportthatwasskepticalofclimatechange.However,itturnsoutthatwhilethereportwaswrittenbyanemployeeonEPAtime,butonhisowninitiativeandnotqualifiedtodoso,andsocouldntbepublishedbytheEPAandthereforewasnotsuppressed.Furthermore,asthepreviouslinkfinds,thereportcontainedlargepiecesofplagiarism.Inaddition,thereportwasflawedasRealClimte.orgquicklyshowed.
Theheadlinesaboutthisepisodetalkedofsuppressionandwouldlikelyincreasetheviewamongstthosestillskepticalaboutclimatechange.Correctionstothoseheadlineshavebeenfew,andlessprominent,bycomparison.
ManySourcesOfGreenhouseGasesBeingDiscovered
Pollutionfromvariousindustries,theburningoffossilfuels,methanefromfarmanimals,forestdestruction,rotting/deadvegetationetchaveledtoanincreasednumberofgreenhousegasesintheatmosphere.And,asinternationaltradeinitscurrentformcontinuestoexpandwithlittleregardfortheenvironment,thetransportationalone,ofgoodsisthoughttoconsiderablycontributetoglobalwarmingviaemissionsfromplanes,shipsandothertransportationvehicles.(Formoreabouttradeandglobalizationinitscurrentformandhowitaffectstheenvironment,aswellasotherconsequences,visitthiswebsitessectiononTrade,Economy,&RelatedIssues.)
Evensulphuremittedfromshipsarethoughttocontributeafairbittoclimatechange.(Ifyouhaveregisteredatthejournal,Nature,thenyoucanseethereporthere.)Infact,sulphurbasedgas,originatingfromindustry,discoveredin2000isthoughttobethemostpotentgreenhousegasmeasuredtodate.Itiscalledtrifluoromethylsulphurpentafluoride(SF5CF3).
TheGuardianaddsthatonegiantcontainershipcanemitalmostthesameamountofcancerandasthmacausingchemicalsas50millioncars.
Furthermore,Confidentialdatafrommaritimeindustryinsidersbasedonenginesizeandthequalityoffueltypicallyusedbyshipsandcarsshowsthatjust15oftheworld'sbiggestshipsmaynowemitasmuchpollutionasalltheworlds760mcars.Lowgradeshipbunkerfuel(orfueloil)hasupto2,000timesthe
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Photo:PeatBogWesternSiberia.Credit:ressaure/Flickr
sulphurcontentofdieselfuelusedinUSandEuropeanautomobiles.
(Shippingisresponsiblefor3.5%to4%ofallclimatechangeemissionstheGuardianalsonotes.)
NewScientist.comreports(December22,2003)onastudythatsuggestssootparticlesmaybeworsethancarbondioxideincontributingtoglobalwarming.Thesootparticlesalsooriginatefromindustry,andduringtheindustrialrevolution,wasquitecommon.Whileonthepositivesidethereislesssootthesedaysandperhapseasiertocontrolifneeded,alone,asoneofthescientistsofthestudycommented,Itdoesnotchangetheneedtoslowdownthegrowthrateofcarbondioxideandeventuallystabilizetheatmosphericamount.
NewScientist.comandothershavealsoreported(August2005)thattheworldslargestfrozenpeatbogismelting,andcouldunleashbillionsoftonnesofmethane,apotentgreenhousegas,intotheatmosphere.AnareathesizeofFranceandGermanycombinedhasbeenmeltinginthelast4years.Inaddition,WesternSiberiahaswarmedfasterthanalmostanywhereelseontheplanet,withanincreaseinaveragetemperaturesofsome3Cinthelast40years.
Ascientistexplainedafearthatifthebogsdryoutastheywarm,themethanewilloxidiseandescapeintotheairascarbondioxide.Butifthebogsremainwet,asisthecaseinwesternSiberiatoday,thenthemethanewillbereleasedstraightintotheatmosphere.Methaneis20timesaspotentagreenhousegasascarbondioxide.
Warminghappeningmorequicklythanpredicted
Whilethosedenyingclimatechangearereducinginnumberandthereappearstobemoreefforttotryandtackletheproblem,climatescientistsarenowfearingthatclimatechangeishappeningfarfasterandishavingmuchlargerimpactsthantheyeverimagined.
TheArcticplaysanincrediblyimportantroleinthebalanceoftheearthsclimate.Rapidchangestoitcanhaveknockoneffectstotherestoftheplanet.SomehavedescribedtheArcticasthecanaryinthecoalmine,referringtohowcanarybirdsusedtobetakendeepdowncoalmines.Iftheydied,itimpliedoxygenlevelswerelowandsignaledmineworkerstogetout.
Satelliteobservationsshowthearcticseaicedecreasing,andprojectionsfortherestofthecenturypredictevenmoreshrinkage:
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Image:ThedecreaseofArcticseaice,minimumextentin1982and2007,andclimateprojections.UNEP/GRIDArendal,2007
Intermsofbiodiversity,theprospectoficefreesummersintheArcticOceanimpliesthelossofanentirebiome,theGlobalBiodiversityOutlookreportnotes(p.57).
Inaddition,Wholespeciesassemblagesareadaptedtolifeontopoforundericefromthealgaethatgrowontheundersideofmultiyearice,formingupto25%oftheArcticOceansprimaryproduction,totheinvertebrates,birds,fishandmarinemammalsfurtherupthefoodchain.Theiconicpolarbearatthetopofthatfoodchainisthereforenottheonlyspeciesatriskeventhoughitmaygetmoremediaattention.
Note,theiceintheArcticdoesthawandrefreezeeachyear,butitisthatpatternwhichhaschangedalotinrecentyearsasshownbythisgraph:
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TheextentoffloatingseaiceintheArcticOcean,asmeasuredatitsannualminimuminSeptember,showedasteadydeclinebetween1980and2009.Source:NationalSnowandIceDataCenter,graphcompiledbySecretariatoftheConventiononBiologicalDiversity(2010)
GlobalBiodiversityOutlook3,May2010
ItisalsoimportanttonotethatlossofseaicehasimplicationsonbiodiversitybeyondtheArctic,astheGlobalBiodiversityOutlookreportalsosummarizes:
Brightwhiteicereflectssunlight.Whenitisreplacedbydarkerwater,theoceanandtheairheatmuchfaster,afeedbackthatacceleratesicemeltandheatingofsurfaceairinland,withresultantlossoftundra.Lessseaiceleadstochangesinseawatertemperatureandsalinity,leadingtochangesinprimaryproductivityandspeciescompositionofplanktonandfish,aswellaslargescalechangesinoceancirculation,affectingbiodiversitywellbeyondtheArctic.
SecretariatoftheConventiononBiologicalDiversity(2010),GlobalBiodiversityOutlook3,May,2010,p.57
SomescientistsfearchangesarehappeningtotheArcticmuchfasterthananticipated.ThepreviouslinkmentionsthatdespitecomputerclimatemodelspredictinglossofArcticseaiceby2050to2080,somescientistsfearitcouldbeassoonas2015.TheBBCnotessimilarconcernsbyscientists,withonequotedassayingtheseaiceissothinthatyouwouldhavetohaveanexceptionalsequenceofcoldwintersandcoldsummersinorderforittorebuild.
AnotherBBCarticlereportsscientistsnowhaveunambiguousevidencethatthewarmingintheArcticisaccelerating.
TheArcticreflectsmuchsunlightbackintospacehelpingkeepearthtemperate.Moremeltingwillresultinlessreflectionandevenmoreheatbeingabsorbedbytheearth.Achainreactioncouldresult,suchastheGreenlandicesheetmelting(whichwillactuallyincreasesealevels,whereasthemeltingofArcticicewill
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notbecauseitisseaice),possiblyincreasingthemeltingofpermafrostinSiberia,whichwillreleasehugeamountsofmethane(asnotedabove),andrapidlychangeclimatepatterns,circulationpatternsandjetstreams,farquickerthanwhatmostoftheenvironmentcouldadapttoeasily.
OldermembersoftheindigenousInuitpeopledescribehowweatherpatternshaveshiftedandchangedinrecentyears,whiletheyalsofacechallengestotheirwayoflifeintheformofincreasedcommercialinterestinthearcticregion.Thiscombinationofenvironmentalandeconomicfactorsputindigenouspopulationswaysatacrossroadsasthisdocumentaryfromexplore.orgshows:
Video:Arctic:ChangeattheTopoftheWorld,Explore.org,September2007Followlinkfortranscriptandmoreinformation
Fordecades,scientistsandenvironmentalistshavewarnedthatthewayweareusingEarthsresourcesisnotsustainable.Alternativetechnologieshavebeencalledforrepeatedly,seeminglyupondeafears(or,cynically,uponthosewhodontwanttomakesubstantialchangesasitchallengestheirbottomlineandtakesawayfromtheircurrentprofits).
Inthepast,somecompaniesandindustrieshavepushedbackonenvironmentalprogramsinordertoincreaseprofitsortosurviveinatoughbusinessworld.
Ithasperhapstakenaboutadecadeorsoandasevereenoughglobalfinancialcrisisthathashittheheartofthiswayofthinkingtochangethismentality(inwhichtime,moregreenhousegaseshavebeenemittedinefficiently).Isthattoolateorwillitbeokay?
Economiststalkofthepricesignalthatisfundamentaltocapitalismtheabilityforpricestoindicatewhenaresourceisbecomingscarcer.Atsuchatime,capitalismandthemarketswillmobilizeautomaticallytoaddressthisbylookingforwaystobringdowncosts.Asaresult,resourcesaresupposedlyinfinite.Forexample,ifenergycostsgoup,businesseswilllookforawaytominimizesuchcostsforthemselves,anditisinsuchatimethatalternativescomeaboutand/orexistingresourceslastlongerbecausetheyareusedmoreefficiently.Runningoutofresourcesshouldthereforebeaverted.
However,ithaslongbeenarguedthatpricesdonttrulyreflectthefullcostofthings,soeitherthesignalisincorrect,orcomestoolate.Thepricesignalalsoimpliesthepoorestoftenpaytheheaviestcosts.Forexample,commerciallyoverfishingaregionmaymeanfishfromthatareabecomeshardertocatchandmoreexpensive,possiblyallowingthatecosystemtimetorecover(thoughthatisnotguaranteed,either).However,whilecommercialentitiescanexploitresourceselsewhere,localfishermenwillgooutofbusinessandthepoorerwilllikelygohungry(asalsodetailedonthissitessectiononbiodiversity).Thisthenhasanimpactonvariouslocalsocial,politicalandeconomicissues.
Inadditiontothat,otherrelatedmeasurements,suchasGNParethereforeflawed,andevenrewardunproductiveorinefficientbehavior(e.g.Efficientlyproducingunhealthyfoodandtheunhealthyconsumerculturetogowithitmayprofitthefoodindustryandaprivatehealthsectorthathastodealwithit,allofwhichrequiremoreuseofresources.Moreexamplesarediscussedonthissitessectiononconsumptionandconsumerism).
Ourcontinuedinefficientpumpingofgreenhousegasesintotheenvironmentwithoutfactoringtheenormouscostastheclimatealreadybeginstochangeisperhapsanexamplewherepricesignalsmaycome
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byAnupShahCreated:Monday,July20,1998
LastUpdated:Sunday,February01,2015
toolate,oratatimewhenthereisalreadysignificantimpacttomanypeople.Resourcesthatcouldbeavailablemoreindefinitely,becomefinitebecauseofourinabilityorunwillingnesstochange.
Thesubsequentpagesonthissitelookatthepoliticalissuesaroundtacklingclimatechange.
Wherenext?
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