climate change and fossil fuels
Post on 15-Jan-2016
36 Views
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change and Fossil Climate Change and Fossil FuelsFuels
Will running out of oil help
mitigate global warming?
WSU March 1, 2007
Dr. Robert BrechaPhysics Dept., Univ. of Dayton
Dayton, OH USA 45469-2314brecha@udayton.edu
OutlineOutline
Climate change signalsClimate models and projectionsPeak oil (and natural gas and coal)Will fossil fuel limits have an effect?Conclusion
The PastThe Past
Mean global temperature - Mean global temperature - distributiondistribution
Energy BalanceEnergy Balance
“Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications” James Hansen, et al.Science 3 June 2005 308: 1431-1435 – Current imbalance of 0.85±0.15 W/m2
COCO22 Record Record
COCO22 and CH and CH44
concentrationconcentration
The FutureThe Future
Model scenario indicatorsModel scenario indicators
Climate “Forcings”Climate “Forcings”
Model projectionsModel projections
Temperature change - natural or Temperature change - natural or anthropogenic?anthropogenic?
Energy and fossil fuelsEnergy and fossil fuels
World energy useWorld energy use
Coal
Nuclear
Oil (34.9%)
Gas
Hydro
Biomass
Geothermal, wind, solar, etc.
RE (13.4%)
Total
~400 Quadrillion Btu
World: ~84 million barrels/day; US: ~21 million barrels/day
US production peakUS production peak
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Year
Mil
lio
n b
arr
els
pe
r y
ea
r
US Production Gaussian
Approximately 30 out of 40 largest producers have crossed a peak
Peak models – world productionPeak models – world production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
18
50
19
00
19
50
20
00
20
50
21
00
21
50
Year
Bill
ion
ba
rre
ls p
er
ye
ar
USGS(BP + 50%)
BPreserves
Discovery vs. consumptionDiscovery vs. consumption
Discovery and productionDiscovery and production
World Reserves and R/PWorld Reserves and R/P
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Wo
rld
res
erve
s (G
b)
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
R/P
Rat
io
BP Data Corrected for OPEC R/P Ratio
Production and R/P RatioProduction and R/P Ratio
Great Britain Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Mb
/d
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
R/P
ra
tio
Most Recent EIA Predictions Most Recent EIA Predictions (June 2006)(June 2006)
In the IEO2006 reference case, … (p)roduction from Norway … is expected to peak at about 3.6 MMbd in 2006 and then decline gradually to about 2.5 MMbd in 2030 ... The UK sector is expected to produce about 2.2 MMbd in 2010, followed by a decline to 1.4 MMbd in 2030.
Natural GasNatural Gas
National Petroleum Council (1998)US Prod. Import from Canada
1998 550 Bcm 90 Bcm2010 725 Bcm 120 Bcm2015 780 Bcm
Now the numbers are more like …1998 550 Bcm2003 550 Bcm 2004 540 Bcm2005 526 Bcm
And Canada peaked in 2002 at 188 Bcm and expects a declineof 2.5% per year
Natural Gas in the USNatural Gas in the US
EIA Statistical Review of World Energy data
(per day)
U.S. NG Data
0102030405060708090
100
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
US Production (Bcf) Percentage of successful wells
US Proven Reserves (Tcf) Henry Hub Prices ($/MMBtu)
Number of wells drilled (thousands)
US Coal Production, 1949-2004
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
To
tal P
rod
ucti
on
(m
illio
n t
on
s)
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
Co
al en
erg
y co
nte
nt
(Qu
ad
s)
Coal production Energy content Million Btu/ton
U.S. Coal ProductionU.S. Coal Production
U.S. Coal ProductionU.S. Coal Production
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/coal.htmlEnergy Information Administration – Annual Energy Review 2005
Lower quality coal
US Anthracite Production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Mil
lio
n t
on
s/y
ea
r
R/P for CoalR/P for Coal
1993 – According to BP, reserves will last 250 years
2005 – According to BP, reserves will last 155 years
3% future growth (less than currently), reserves will last 65 years
U.S. figures: 1939, 3800 years remaining; 1953, 1900 years;1993, 300 years; 2005, 240 years left
EROEIEROEI
“Net energy from the extraction of oil and gas in the United States” C. Cleveland Energy 30 (2005) 769–782
Tar
san
ds
Hyd
ro
Win
d
Energy output
Energy input
Tar SandsTar SandsAlberta, CanadaEffectively a mining operationCurrent production of 106 b/d of synthetic crude oilEstimate ~3×106 b/d in 10 yrs., 5×106 b/d in 25 yrs. Needs large amounts of NG and water,
plus hazardous waste disposalEROEI is perhaps 2:1 – 3:1
Oil ShaleOil ShaleWestern U.S.Possibly 800 billion barrels !!A mined productTechniques proven in principle, but not large scaleOnly profitable with oil >$75/bblHigh growth, optimum scenario – 106 b/d in 2025 EROEI is (optimistically?) estimated at ~2:1 – 4:1
Rand Corp. report for US DOE, Nat’l. Energy Tech. Lab.
Ethanol from CornEthanol from CornYield for ethanol from corn is ~70 GJ/ha (@9000 kgcorn/ha)
Automobile + light truck transportation uses ~1.7×1010 GJ/a
Quick calculation: we would need 2.4×108 ha of land
Currently we have in the US 1.2×108 ha of cropland total
But … the key point missing is the energy input. Ethanol fromindustrial-scale corn farming is barely an energy break-even. Energy return on Energy invested (EROEI) ratio is ~1.3. GHG emissions are only slightly less than for conventional gasoline –and can be worse if coal-generated electricity is used.
D.Pimentel and T. Patzek, Natural Resources Research 14, 65-76 (2005) Shapouri - USDA “The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update” Ag. Econ. Report 813Farrell et al., Science 311, 506-508 (2006)
Fossil fuels and COFossil fuels and CO22
SRES - OilSRES - Oil
A1 Scenarios
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
En
erg
y fr
om
oil
(EJ)
A1B-AIM
A1B-ASF
A1B-IMAGE
A1B-MARIA
A1B-MESSAGE
A1B-MiniCAM
A1C-AIM
A1C-MESSAGE
A1C-MiniCAM
A1G-AIM
A1G-MESSAGE
A1F1-MiniCAM
A1T-AIM
A1T-MESSAGE
A1T-MARIA
A1v1-MiniCAM
My 2010 peak
My 2025 peak
SRES - OilSRES - Oil
B2 Scenarios
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1990 2040 2090
En
erg
y f
rom
oil
(EJ
)
B2-AIM
B2-ASF
B2-IMAGE
B2-MARIA
B2-MESSAGE
B2-MiniCAM
B2C-MARIA
B2High-MiniCAM
My 2010 peak
My 2025 peak
SRES - NGSRES - NG
NG and SRES Marker Scenarios
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
NG
Co
ns
um
pti
on
, EJ
/yr
A1
A2
B1
B2
My low
My medium
My high
Oil and COOil and CO22
Oil production and CO2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150
Wo
rld
oil
pro
du
cti
on
(G
b/a
)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
(G
t C
/a)
Natural Gas and CONatural Gas and CO22
World NG consumption and CO2 from NG
y = 0.0252x - 49.172
R2 = 0.9944
y = 1.8477x - 3602.4
R2 = 0.9944
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070
EJ
/ye
ar
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
(G
t C
/yr)
Coal and COCoal and CO22
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Gt
coal
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(GtC
)
Coal production CO2 emissions (GtC) 1% Grow th
2% Grow th 4% Grow th 6% Grow th
Total COTotal CO22 – Middle Scenarios – Middle Scenarios
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(GtC
)
Coal CO2
NG CO2
Oil CO2
Total anthropogenic carbon Total anthropogenic carbon emissionsemissions
a b
Peak fossil fuelscenario
Global Sea Level ChangesGlobal Sea Level Changes
Rahmstorf, Science (2007)
Stop burning fossil fuels?Stop burning fossil fuels?
“The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE
Keep burning at same rate?Keep burning at same rate?
“The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE
Will climate change mitigation be Will climate change mitigation be costly?costly?
Some coupled economic-climate models show the costs to be minimal
Stern report – not acting now will be extremely costly
U.S. businesses that have taken action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have found positive bottom-line results
top related