Climate Change and Fossil Climate Change and Fossil FuelsFuels

Will running out of oil help

mitigate global warming?

WSU March 1, 2007

Dr. Robert BrechaPhysics Dept., Univ. of Dayton

Dayton, OH USA 45469-2314brecha@udayton.edu

OutlineOutline

Climate change signalsClimate models and projectionsPeak oil (and natural gas and coal)Will fossil fuel limits have an effect?Conclusion

The PastThe Past

Mean global temperature - Mean global temperature - distributiondistribution

Energy BalanceEnergy Balance

“Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications” James Hansen, et al.Science 3 June 2005 308: 1431-1435 – Current imbalance of 0.85±0.15 W/m2

COCO22 Record Record

COCO22 and CH and CH44

concentrationconcentration

The FutureThe Future

Model scenario indicatorsModel scenario indicators

Climate “Forcings”Climate “Forcings”

Model projectionsModel projections

Temperature change - natural or Temperature change - natural or anthropogenic?anthropogenic?

Energy and fossil fuelsEnergy and fossil fuels

World energy useWorld energy use

Coal

Nuclear

Oil (34.9%)

Gas

Hydro

Biomass

Geothermal, wind, solar, etc.

RE (13.4%)

Total

~400 Quadrillion Btu

World: ~84 million barrels/day; US: ~21 million barrels/day

US production peakUS production peak

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1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Year

Mil

lio

n b

arr

els

pe

r y

ea

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US Production Gaussian

Approximately 30 out of 40 largest producers have crossed a peak

Peak models – world productionPeak models – world production

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Year

Bill

ion

ba

rre

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ye

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USGS(BP + 50%)

BPreserves

Discovery vs. consumptionDiscovery vs. consumption

Discovery and productionDiscovery and production

World Reserves and R/PWorld Reserves and R/P

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1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Wo

rld

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erve

s (G

b)

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R/P

Rat

io

BP Data Corrected for OPEC R/P Ratio

Production and R/P RatioProduction and R/P Ratio

Great Britain Production

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Mb

/d

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tio

Most Recent EIA Predictions Most Recent EIA Predictions (June 2006)(June 2006)

In the IEO2006 reference case, … (p)roduction from Norway … is expected to peak at about 3.6 MMbd in 2006 and then decline gradually to about 2.5 MMbd in 2030 ... The UK sector is expected to produce about 2.2 MMbd in 2010, followed by a decline to 1.4 MMbd in 2030.

Natural GasNatural Gas

National Petroleum Council (1998)US Prod. Import from Canada

1998 550 Bcm 90 Bcm2010 725 Bcm 120 Bcm2015 780 Bcm

Now the numbers are more like …1998 550 Bcm2003 550 Bcm 2004 540 Bcm2005 526 Bcm

And Canada peaked in 2002 at 188 Bcm and expects a declineof 2.5% per year

Natural Gas in the USNatural Gas in the US

EIA Statistical Review of World Energy data

(per day)

U.S. NG Data

0102030405060708090

100

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

5

10

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25

US Production (Bcf) Percentage of successful wells

US Proven Reserves (Tcf) Henry Hub Prices ($/MMBtu)

Number of wells drilled (thousands)

US Coal Production, 1949-2004

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

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Co

al en

erg

y co

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ad

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Coal production Energy content Million Btu/ton

U.S. Coal ProductionU.S. Coal Production

U.S. Coal ProductionU.S. Coal Production

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/coal.htmlEnergy Information Administration – Annual Energy Review 2005

Lower quality coal

US Anthracite Production

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1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

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R/P for CoalR/P for Coal

1993 – According to BP, reserves will last 250 years

2005 – According to BP, reserves will last 155 years

3% future growth (less than currently), reserves will last 65 years

U.S. figures: 1939, 3800 years remaining; 1953, 1900 years;1993, 300 years; 2005, 240 years left

EROEIEROEI

“Net energy from the extraction of oil and gas in the United States” C. Cleveland Energy 30 (2005) 769–782

Tar

san

ds

Hyd

ro

Win

d

Energy output

Energy input

Tar SandsTar SandsAlberta, CanadaEffectively a mining operationCurrent production of 106 b/d of synthetic crude oilEstimate ~3×106 b/d in 10 yrs., 5×106 b/d in 25 yrs. Needs large amounts of NG and water,

plus hazardous waste disposalEROEI is perhaps 2:1 – 3:1

Oil ShaleOil ShaleWestern U.S.Possibly 800 billion barrels !!A mined productTechniques proven in principle, but not large scaleOnly profitable with oil >$75/bblHigh growth, optimum scenario – 106 b/d in 2025 EROEI is (optimistically?) estimated at ~2:1 – 4:1

Rand Corp. report for US DOE, Nat’l. Energy Tech. Lab.

Ethanol from CornEthanol from CornYield for ethanol from corn is ~70 GJ/ha (@9000 kgcorn/ha)

Automobile + light truck transportation uses ~1.7×1010 GJ/a

Quick calculation: we would need 2.4×108 ha of land

Currently we have in the US 1.2×108 ha of cropland total

But … the key point missing is the energy input. Ethanol fromindustrial-scale corn farming is barely an energy break-even. Energy return on Energy invested (EROEI) ratio is ~1.3. GHG emissions are only slightly less than for conventional gasoline –and can be worse if coal-generated electricity is used.

D.Pimentel and T. Patzek, Natural Resources Research 14, 65-76 (2005) Shapouri - USDA “The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update” Ag. Econ. Report 813Farrell et al., Science 311, 506-508 (2006)

Fossil fuels and COFossil fuels and CO22

SRES - OilSRES - Oil

A1 Scenarios

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1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

En

erg

y fr

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(EJ)

A1B-AIM

A1B-ASF

A1B-IMAGE

A1B-MARIA

A1B-MESSAGE

A1B-MiniCAM

A1C-AIM

A1C-MESSAGE

A1C-MiniCAM

A1G-AIM

A1G-MESSAGE

A1F1-MiniCAM

A1T-AIM

A1T-MESSAGE

A1T-MARIA

A1v1-MiniCAM

My 2010 peak

My 2025 peak

SRES - OilSRES - Oil

B2 Scenarios

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erg

y f

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B2-AIM

B2-ASF

B2-IMAGE

B2-MARIA

B2-MESSAGE

B2-MiniCAM

B2C-MARIA

B2High-MiniCAM

My 2010 peak

My 2025 peak

SRES - NGSRES - NG

NG and SRES Marker Scenarios

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1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

NG

Co

ns

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pti

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A2

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My low

My medium

My high

Oil and COOil and CO22

Oil production and CO2

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t C

/a)

Natural Gas and CONatural Gas and CO22

World NG consumption and CO2 from NG

y = 0.0252x - 49.172

R2 = 0.9944

y = 1.8477x - 3602.4

R2 = 0.9944

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1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070

EJ

/ye

ar

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Coal and COCoal and CO22

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1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Gt

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Coal production CO2 emissions (GtC) 1% Grow th

2% Grow th 4% Grow th 6% Grow th

Total COTotal CO22 – Middle Scenarios – Middle Scenarios

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Coal CO2

NG CO2

Oil CO2

Total anthropogenic carbon Total anthropogenic carbon emissionsemissions

a b

Peak fossil fuelscenario

Global Sea Level ChangesGlobal Sea Level Changes

Rahmstorf, Science (2007)

Stop burning fossil fuels?Stop burning fossil fuels?

“The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE

Keep burning at same rate?Keep burning at same rate?

“The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE

Will climate change mitigation be Will climate change mitigation be costly?costly?

Some coupled economic-climate models show the costs to be minimal

Stern report – not acting now will be extremely costly

U.S. businesses that have taken action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have found positive bottom-line results