chapter 8 campaigns and elections universal suffrage turnout voter’s perspective campaigning...

Chapter 8

Campaigns and Elections

• Universal Suffrage

• Turnout

• Voter’s Perspective

• Campaigning

• Elections

• Strategies - Finance and Incumbency

Voting Rights

• Obstacles– States establish the rules– White, male, 21 years old, land owner– Poll tax, literacy tests, white only primaries

• The Constitution (Suffrage Amendments)15th Amendment - eliminated race (almost)19th Amendment - eliminated gender23rd Amendment – allowed D.C. in Pres Election24th Amendment - eliminated poll tax26th Amendment - lowers age to 18

• Legislation— Voting Rights Act of 1965 - eliminated literacy test

type limitations intent on diluting the vote

Voter Turnout• Low voter turnout

— 50 percent in presidential elections— 40 percent in congressional midterm elections— 20 percent in state and local elections— 5 percent in state primaries

• Turnout much higher in many European countries

Comparative Voter Turnout

Socioeconomic Status

• Education is the strongest, most important predictor– the higher the education level the more likely to vote

• Income - the higher the income the greater the participation

• Age - 18 to 24 year olds lowest group to participate

• Ethnicity - White 68%, African American 66%, Hispanic 36%

Impact of Social Setting

• Depends on three elements:– Resources - Money and Time– Civic engagement - how you feel about the

candidates, issues and process+ Candidates character

+ Party affiliation

+ Issues of least importance

– Recruitment

• Changing generations

9-6Voter Participation by Age Group

1.52

2.36

25.40

25.42

16.46

Presidential Election versus Midterm Elections

Factors Determining How Voters Decide

• Incumbency

• Partisan Loyalty

• Issues

• Candidate Characteristics

Incumbency

• Public official running for a seat already occupying.– House 98% incumbents win– Senate 80 - 90% incumbents win

• Safe seats - House versus Senate

• Term limits

10-8

PAC Contributions to Congressional Candidates, 1974 to 1998

Partisan Loyalty

• Party loyalty may be the best predictor of how an individual will vote.

• Partisan loyalties rarely allow a voter to cast a ballot for an opposing candidate.

9-8

Party Identification and Voting Behavior in the 1996 Presidential Election

Clinton 43%, Bush 38%, Perot 19%

11

0

89

93

06

48

1

49

Kerry

Issues

• Issues, such as the state of the economy, are also important.

• But it is often difficult to get voters to restate a candidate’s position on a particular issue

• Usually the least important

Candidate Characteristics

• Race, religion, gender, and physical characteristics are also important.

• John F. Kennedy had to overcome a resistance to voting for a Catholic.

• Background, honesty, intelligence, experience

Campaigns and Elections

• Nominating Candidates

• Election Campaigns

• Money and Politics

• Electing the Candidates

• Campaign Finance Reform

Presidential Elections

• Who wants to be President?

• How is the president elected?

• What factors have the greatest impact on a general election campaign?

Election Campaigns

• Advisers

• Polling

• The Elections

10-6

A Typical Presidential Campaign Organization

Advisers and Consultants

• Candidates utilize political advisors to manage their campaigns.

• Develop campaign strategies, conduct polls and coordinate the media events.

• James Carville and Dick Morris are some of the best-known campaign strategists.

Campaigning Techniques

• Polling• Broadcast Media

– spot ads– town meetings– infomercials– debates

• Phone Banks• Direct Mail• Public Relations• Internet

Polling

• Conducting political polls is essential for a successful campaign.

• Must ascertain the will of the people and tailor a message that appeals to the voters

• Benchmark Poll

• Tracking Poll

• Rolling Polls

• Focus Groups

Money and Politics

• $500,000 for a House seat

• $5,000,000 for a Senate seat

• $50 - 100,000,000 for President

Sources of Campaign Funds

• The Federal Election Commission monitors campaign fundraising.

• Sources of funds include – “hard money”— individuals - 50%— political action committees (PAC) - 25%— the candidate - 25%— parties and “soft money”,— public funding.

• Limits - individual $2300, group $5000– Increased in 2003 to $2000 + inflation factor from

$1000

Money and Politics

• Winners out spend losers 2 to 1

• 10 months of face to face equals 2 days of large state wide TV coverage

• It’s expensive for a one point increase

- 15 - 75% $15,000 per percentage point

- 76 - 100% $25,000 per point

10-14PACs Give Postelection Donations to Winners

Campaign Finance Reform• Both parties have argued that reforms

should be made to the campaign finance system.

• Incumbents are reluctant to give up the financial advantage.

• Each party fears that reform would benefit the other side– Democrats would not give up PAC

contributions– Republican would give up PAC contributions

• Future soft money and 527s in campaign funding and advocacy issues.

10-10

Soft Money Raised by Political Parties, 1992 to 1998

Electoral Districts

• Drawn by the state legislatures following reapportionment

• Political gerrymandering is well accepted.

• Racial gerrymandering was declared to be unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court.

Newest Map 2007

Newest Map 2007

The Electoral Process• Historically the party had meeting to

negotiate candidate positions

• Today Presidential hopefuls must compete in a series of primaries and caucuses or conventions to win delegates at the national convention.

• The winner of the primary season will receive the party’s nomination.

The Primaries

• A direct primary is an election held within a party to select a nominee for a general election.

• Must defeat party contenders to win a spot on the general election ballot

• Requires winning the approval of the party activists

Types of Primaries

• Primary elections

– Closed

– Open

– Blanket

• Caucus

• Runoff elections

National Party Conventions

• Selects the party’s candidate for president.• Party used the caucus in early years.• Has become more democratic since the

1960s.• Winner know usually well in advance.• Some feel it’s now a giant infomercial.• Established future rules.• Writes party platform.

The Criteria for Winning

• Majority

— Southern primaries

• Plurality

— General election

• Proportional Representation

— European elections

Types of Elections

• General election - regularly scheduled national elections held in even numbered years on the first Tuesday in November.– Presidential– Mid Term

• Special election - state and/or local election necessary before next general election.

The Ballot

• Prior to 1890 - Controlled by party• Utilizes a neutral ballot that contains the

candidates for all the eligible parties• Party-column versus office-block ballot• Permits split-ticket and straight-ticket

voting• Coattail effect possible with popular

candidate

The Electoral College

• Electors are chosen by each state to meet after the popular election to cast ballots for the president and vice president.

• Electors equal to the number of House and Senate members.

• Need 270 of 538 to win.

• Possible to win popular vote and lose election.

10-12

State Electoral Votes

34

31

The General Election

• The general presidential election contest is about winning 270 electoral college votes.

• This forces the candidates to focus on the states with large delegations (California, Texas, etc.).

• Organizationally driven

• Media driven

The 2000 Election• The 2000 election was mired in controversy,

including — media confusion regarding the projected

winner of key states,— the mandated recount of the Florida

popular vote,— confusion in the Florida courts regarding

extent of manual recounts,— U.S. Supreme Court decision rejecting

recounts.• Bush was declared the winner with a 271 to

267 vote in the electoral college.• 2004