cdma and 1xev-do broadband for all - now!
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Victor J. Agnellini
President, Caribbean and Latin America
Cancun – May 14th, 2008
CDMA and 1xEV-DO Broadband for All - Now!
2 | VAgnellini | May 2008 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2008
CDMA is Dead - Long Live CDMA!CDMA stands poised at the crossroads of change, change that willimpact the very nature of every network we support. Whether or not LTE appears in our networks as quickly as the pundits and customers would like to believe; CDMA networks will be supporting revenue generating customers and applications for many years to come.
� CDMA will continue to evolve with improved voice and data capabilities
� CDMA will enable operators to gracefully evolve to LTE, maximizing the value of their investment in existing CDMA infrastructure
� CDMA networks will remain in place as operators grow their 4G coverage
WiFi
DorA
WiMax
HSDPA
UMTS
LTE
CDMA Evolution
3 | VAgnellini | May 2008 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2008
US Virgin Isle
Argentina
AngolaAngolaCongo
Nigeria
Zambia
Egypt
IsraelIsrael
Mauritius
Chile
Peru
Ecuador
Colombia
Guatemala
Mexico
Uruguay
Mongolia
China
Australia
New Zealand
Indonesia
Japan
S Korea
TaiwanHong Kong
Viet Nam
Thailand
Cambodia
Guam
Philippines
Malaysia
El Salvador
Panama
HaitiJamaica
Dominican Rep
Bermuda
Puerto Rico
Venezuela
Fiji
Nicaragua
China
Australia
Canada
Russia
China
India
Australia
Bangladesh
EgyptEgypt
Kazakhstan
Pakistan
AlgeriaAlgeria
EthiopiaEthiopia
Portugal
UkraineUkraine
RomaniaRomania
BelarusBelarus
PolandPoland
GeorgiaGeorgia Kyrgyzstan
Myanmar
Belize
Czech RepCzech Rep
USA
Brazil
Uzbekistan
MoldovaMoldova
Yemen
KenyaKenya
Honduras Kuwait
SwedenSweden
LatviaLatvia
Azerbaijan
Laos
Nepal
Saudi Arabia
UgandaUganda
Sources: www.cdg.org, www.3gtoday.com, www.3G.co.uk 04/08
NorwayNorway
Cayman Isle
Ghana
RwandaRwanda
Sri LankaTrinidad & Tobago
South AfricaSouth AfricaNamibia
Niger
Tajikistan
Cote D'Ivoire
Madagascar
Mali
Mozambique
Oman
Botswana
BarbadosAntilles
CDMA continues to grow & Lead the Drive to 3G
Bahamas
Cameroon
FinlandFinland
IrelandIreland
DenmarkDenmark
Macau
Aruba
Mauritania
Gambia
306 operators in 103 countries operate 519 CDMA net works supporting >431 M subs280 operators in 99 countries operate 255 CDMA2000 1X (3G) networks supporting >418 M subs
131 Operators in 69 Countries Have Launched or Anno unced for Plans 1xEV-DO Networks72 Commercial 1xEV-DO networks in 49 countries supp ort >91 M subs (04/08)
UK Virgin Isle
IraqIraqMorocco
TanzaniaTanzania
Togo
22ndnd Generation (cdmaOne)Generation (cdmaOne)
33rdrd Generation (CDMA2000 1X)Generation (CDMA2000 1X)
33rdrd Generation (1xEVGeneration (1xEV --DO Rev 0)DO Rev 0)
KEY
33rdrd Generation (1xEVGeneration (1xEV --DO Rev A)DO Rev A)
Surinam
EstoniaEstonia
Afghanistan
IcelandIceland
SudanSudanN Mariana Isles
4 | VAgnellini | May 2008 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2008
Top Sub-$50 Handset Models 2007
Global economies of scale driven by low cost devicesThe CDG quotes a Yankee Group report, detailing from Jan - Oct '07:
� 62% of all handsets imported into India were below $50
� 78% of all sub-$50 imports were CDMA models from 13 vendors
� 94% of CDMA imports were below $50
� Total CDMA import volumes exceed GSM by a margin of 52% to 48%.
� The average selling price (ASP) for CDMA handsets is 68% lower than the GSM market average — on average, the cost of CDMA handsets is $72 less than GSM.
� More than 82 very low-end (VLE) CDMA2000 handsets (<$50 USD wholesale) available from 19 suppliers
� Bangladesh, China, Ghana, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Venezuela. Very low-cost CDMA handsets available in developed markets with e.g., “Cricket EZ” handset sold by Cricket Communications in the US for $49.99
Throughout 2008/9 multiple CDMA device manufacturers will launch:
� Low cost DOrA ASICs, Cards and Handsets
� Sub $20 1X phones
� Low cost DO/LTE devicesZTE
CLASSIC 202
ROSE CLASSIC
632
SAMSUNG S229
KINPO CLASSIC
701
HUAWEI C2285
LG 3100
5 | VAgnellini | May 2008 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2008
Operator ARPU increases as Subs adopt DO
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
YE03 YE04 YE05 YE06 YE07
HSDPA
19M
UMTS178M
1xEV-DO
CDMA2000 1X
(431M incl cdmaOne)
417M
91M
351M
288M
236M
186M
107M
53M18M3M
64M
25M5M
� US Wireless data revenues grew 7.8% Q/Q to $6.9B in Q407.
� For 07, US wireless data revenues were $24.5B, up 55% from 06.
� Strongest growth in 2007 from Verizon (64% YOY jump in data revenues $7.4B), almost 31% of the US industry data revenue for the year.
� The average industry contribution of data to service revenues jumped to 19.34%.
� Verizon one of five global operators who are now generating $2B or more in data revenues/quarter (the others are NTT DoCoMo, China Mobile, ATT and KDDI).
Source Pyramid & CDG 12/07
Source: http://www.chetansharma.com/usmarketupdateq407.htm -
US Wireless Data Market Update - 4Q07 and 2007
6 | VAgnellini | May 2008 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2008
CDMA EV-DO Subscribers Breakdown for Leading Network Operators
1. Verizon Wireless (US)
2. KDDI (Japan)
3. SKT (Korea)
5. KTF (Korea)
4. Sprint (US)
6. Vivo (Brazil)
� est. 11.7M subs
est. 6.8M subs
est. 8.2M subs
� est. 6.1M subs7. Others
est. 2.3M subs
est. 35.0M subs
� est. 18.8M subs
Vi vo 3%
Other 7%
KT F 8%
Spr i nt Nextel 9%
SKT 13%
KDDI 21%
Ver i zon Wi r el ess
39%
Alcatel-Lucent Network Infrastructure supports 40% of the worldwide CDMA EVDO subs, and the number keeps growing with more deployment of some customers such as Verizon, Sprint.
(Ovum Data as of 4Q 2007)
7 | VAgnellini | May 2008 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2008
Sample List of DOrA ApplicationsContext Aware LBS
• Friend Finder
• Points of Interest
• Point by Point Directions
Entertainment• MiView TV
• Mobile Interactive Music
• Broadcast Video Services
Interactive Advertising• Ad121
• Advertext
• Ad Ringback Tone
• Location based Advertising
• Mobile Ad Studio
• Mobile Kiosk
• Multi-cast Active Wallpaper
• Multimedia Ringback Tones
• Targeted Advertising
Push to Services• Presence Enabled PTT
• Push-to-Conference call
• Push-to-Dispatch
• PTT to full duplex voice
• Push-to-Share
• Push-to-Social Networking
• Push-to-Talk
• Push-to-Video call
Messaging• Instant Messaging
• IP Converged Messaging
• Multimedia Messaging
• Push email
• Safe Content Sharing
• Smart Message Routing
• SMS
• Broadcast SMS
• Video Greetings
• Visual Messaging
• Web Messaging
NG Telephony • Mobile Office / Extensions
• Dual Mode Service
• Residential/Enterprise VoIP
• Video Telephony
• Video Mail
8 | VAgnellini | May 2008 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2008
Solutions Adopted by the World’s Growing Countries
1xEV-DORev 0/A/B/UMB
1xEV1xEV--DO DO ModemModem
Backhaul
Backhaul
for for WiFI
WiFI
FixedFixedwirelesswireless
802.11 Hot Spot802.11 Hot Spot
EVDO EVDO ModemModem
Mobile Mobile datadata
Mobile Mobile usersusers
9 | VAgnellini | May 2008 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2008
ConclusionsApplications on existing 3G networks will stimulate user demands for faster networks
Trials of 4G will begin in 2009, but it may take several years for commercial deployment on a large scale
� 4G coverage will likely be limited to dense urban areas
� As 4G solutions emerge they will hand-off to existing 3G for extended coverage
3G CDMA networks are viable for many years to come and will offer:
� Improved Data Rates with 1xEV-DO Rev B and Rev A+
� Improved Voice capacity with CDMA2000 1XCITE
� Seamless integration and inter-working with 4G solutions
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