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Slocan Integral Forestry CooperativePublic Presentation
February 1-2, 2017 New Denver - Winlaw, BC
g13utzig@telus.netwww.kootenayresilience.org
Greg Utzig Kutenai Nature Investigations Ltd.Nelson, BC CANADA
Climate Disruption
What does it mean for wildfire and ecosystems?Should we care?
Can we do anything?
Part 1 – Climate Change Backgrounder
Climate Information
l Vulnerability/ Resilience Assessment of West Kootenay Forest Ecosystemsq Funded by BC Government – MoFLNRO - Future Forest Ecosystem
Scientific Council (G. Utzig, R. Holt, H. Pinnell, C. Pearce)
l Climate Change Conservation Planningq Funded by ENGOs – Wildsight and Conservation Northwest
2
Climate Change Projects
l Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) –U of Victoria
l Climate Western North America(ClimateWNA) – BC MoFLNRO, UBC, U of A – Edmonton
l Climate Impacts Group (CIG) – U of WA
l International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
l Global climate disruption – What is happening? and Why?
l What do local climate projections indicate?
l What may this mean for local ecosystems?
l What mechanisms may contribute to change?l What can we do?
3
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
CarbonCycle
Long-termShort-termExchange
Photosynthesis
Respiration
4Source: National research Council. 2010. Ocean Acidification: A National Strategy to Meet the Challenges of a Changing Ocean. p. 3. Washington DC: The National Academies Press. Credit: Peter Olsen Photography Moment Getty Images
Marine Organisms Emissions
Agriculture
5Adapted from: Marian Koshland Science Museum
of the US National Academy of Sciences.
Amplified Warming6 Increased levels of GHGs trap
more infrared energy and heatthe atmosphere and the earth
Natural Warming1 Sunlight energy heats the earth2 Heat is radiated out (infrared energy)3 Radiated energy is absorbed by GHGs and re-radiated4 Some infrared from GHGs further warms the earth5 Remaining infrared is emitted to space
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3
4
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6Video on-line at NOAA http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/history.html
Recent CO2 Accumulation in the Atmosphere
Par
ts p
er m
illio
n
Par
ts p
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illio
n Since 1979, CO2 has beenincreasing at about
2 ppm/year –during 2015 there was
a 3 ppm increase
2011
7
Long-term CO2 Accumulation in the AtmosphereCurrent
Par
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er m
illio
n
Last 800,000 years
Par
ts p
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illio
n
Video on-line at NOAA http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/history.html
The CO2 increase is unprecedented in the last 800,000 years
Weather and Climate
l Weatherq Day-to-day variation in temperature,
precipitation, humidity, wind and atmospheric pressure – the state of the atmosphere at a particular time
8
World Climatesl Climateq Averages or extremes of temperature,
precipitation and other atmospheric variables over longer periods of time (months, years, decades, centuries)
Weather and Climate Variability
Climate Variability
Short term: (years todecadal) rises andfalls about the trendline (ENSO)
Climate Oscillations
Multi-decadal oscillations in regional climate (e.g. PDO, NAO)
Climate ChangeLong-term trends or major shifts in climate (mulit-decadal to century-scale)
From: Reasoner 2010 - CBT 9
10
~1850-1900blue
~1900-2000green
~2000+yellow
0oC
2016
Trend of Mean Annual Temperature Columbia Basin (30 year “normals”)
From: Murdock 2007 - PCIC-CBT
11
steepest increasebeginning recently
long-term trend
Loss ofColdestWeather
HistoricalClimate
New Climate
More HotWeather
Cold HotAverage
NewRecord HotWeather
Increase in Mean TemperatureProbability of
occurrence
Adapted from: Reasoner 2012 12
Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomalies
13From: Hansen et al. 2014; Goddard Institute for Space Studies http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
Summer Anomalies (JJA)
Winter Anomalies (DJF)Standard Deviation
More Hot WeatherMore Cold
Weather
Increase in Variance (more extremes)
Cold HotAverage
HistoricalClimate
New Climate
New RecordCold Weather
New RecordHot Weather
Frequency ofoccurrence
Adapted from: Reasoner 2012 14
Reduced, but ContinuingColdWeather
Cold HotAverage
HistoricalClimate
New Climate
Much More Hot Weather
and Record Hot Weather
Increase in Mean Temperature & VarianceFrequency of
occurence
Adapted from: IPCC 2001 & Reasoner 2012 15
Decadal Summer Temperature AnomaliesNorthern Hemisphere Land (1951- 61 reference period)
Adapted from:Hansen et al. 2012
2001-2011
1951-1961
Temperature Anomalies (oC)
Freq
uenc
y of
Occ
urre
nce
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Climatic Extremes
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• Increased amplitude• Reduced rate of movement• Weather systems stall
Calgary & SE BC - June, 2013
Jet Stream Modifications
Low
High
High
Mechanisms?• Heat waves• Drought• High intensity rainstorms/ flooding• Windstorms/ tonadoes• Lightning storms• Hail storms• Ice storms• Early spring heat/ late frost
combinations
Grand Forks, BC - July, 2012 Crossfields, AB - July, 2012
Boundary Sentinel
Jet Stream
18NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center – MERRA Dataset (June 1- July 8, 1988)
It is theorized that the loss ofarctic ice due to increasing temperatures is slowing the
eastward flow and increasing the amplitude of the jet stream
Alteration of the jet streampotentially increases the intensity
and duration of extreme eventssuch as droughts and severe storms
(cold polar air drawn southand warm air drawn north)
Fort McMurray Fire 2016
May 3 May 4 May 5
Jet Stream Configuration
Polar JetSteam:
increased amplitude,
weak and slowmoving
Images from Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, U of Maine, USA http://cci-reanalyzer.org“. Natural Resources CAN
G. Utzig, P. Ag. 5/6/16Kutenai Nature Investigations Ltd. 19
Temperature Anomaly Compared to 1979-2000 Average
Temperatures8-15o C
above recentaverage
2,400homesburned
T. Reith/CBC; DarrenRD
Fire Danger Rating
FortMcMurray
(the contribution of Jet Stream alteration?)
l Global climate disruption – What is happening? and Why?
l What do local climate projections indicate?
l What may this mean for local ecosystems?
l What mechanisms may contribute to change?l What can we do?
20
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
General Circulation Models (GCMs)“Global Climate Models”
Representations of the global climate system
From: IPCC 2007 - AR4 WG1 and IPPC 2013 AR5
“3D pixels” representingatmospheric conditions at various elevations around
the earth through time
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GHG Emission Projections
these “drive” the models
Projected Changes for the 2050s
22
Temperature
Precipitation Winter Spring Summer Fall
Winter Spring Summer Fall
From: CBT – average of A1B scenarios
Variability: Past vs. Potential Futurefor the Columbia Basin
From: Murdock 2007 - PCIC-CBT 23
Note that the projected annual temperature shifts far exceed historical variability (20th century), while the projected precipitation shifts do not.
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“We have options, but the past is not one of them”Sauchyn and Kulshreshtha 2008, p.295
“Times have changed – no longer is our goal sustainable development …. our goal must now be sustainable survival”
Blackstock 2008, p.15
www.kootenayresilience.org
It is all about that thin little layer of air
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