capacity building and energy-economic modeling

Capacity Building

&

Energy-Economic Modeling

Opportunities & Challenges: Jamaica

Omar Alcock Economist / Researcher / Analyst / Business Consultant

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Capital is Kingston

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Capital is Kingston

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Capital is Kingston

Labour force of 1.26 million

Labour force of 1.26 million

Labour force of 1.26 million

Public debt 125% of GDP

Labour force of 1.26 million

Public debt 125% of GDP

Labour force of 1.26 million

Public debt 125% of GDP

Labour force of 1.26 million

Public debt >125% of GDP

THE ENERGY SECTOR

Petroleum fuels Bio-Fuels (ethanol, biodiesel) Electricity (Steam Plants, Gas Turbines, wind farms, hydro plants, solar PV) Bio-Mass (bagasse, woodchips, fuel wood) Bio-Gas

FUELS USED

IMPORTS

DOMESTIC

Jamaica Energy Dependence

Energy Modeling Planning Process

Country Development

Resources

Socio-economic

consideration

Energy requirement

Balancing the Options

Supply Consideration

Available Technology

Financial Implications

Environmental Implications

Institutional Framework

Energy Planning Main Objective To Provide Information to Decision Makers for Actions to be

Implemented

Source: Richard R. Cirillo, Argonne National Laboratory, USA

Decision Makers Government agencies

Energy companies

Investors

Planning Data collection

Analysis

Actions Projects

Policies

Further study

Legislation

Energy Economic Modeling What’s it about?

Managing resources for optimal results

Sustainable approach to guide planning and decision making

Mechanisms for informing, monitoring and evaluating

Producing and sometimes requiring specialized technical capacities

Energy Economic Modeling What’s it about?

Developing a Series of Simulations And Scenarios

Optimizes System Designs

Helps to Prioritize Investment Decisions

Requires Time To Strategize

More Robust Than Simple Trend

Analysis

Provides Valuable Input During Design Stage

Challenges

Limited Persons With Required Skill-sets Data quality control specialists

Database management experts

Information systems managers

Economist and engineers with modeling skills

Energy Analysts (trends vs robust tools)

Limited View Of The Usefulness Of Models

Why These Challenges Exist?

Lack of awareness about the value of economic modeling

Limited emphasis on modeling in academic curriculum

Limited/lack of opportunities for hands-on application during taught degree programs

High turnover rate of staff with the expertise

Opportunities Going Forward

Recommendations To Succeed

Enhance Economic Modeling Capacity

Management Appreciation Or “Buy-in”

Clear Understanding of the Value of Economic Modeling and Planning Tools

Improve Linkages with Key Stakeholders: Academia, the Public and Private Sectors

Institutionalize Modeling to Ensure Informed Decision Making

Further Discussions

Omar Alcock

Email: omaralcock@gmail.com

Twitter: @ojr_services

LinkedIn: jm.linkedin.com/in/omaralcock/