california congressional district 10 immigration reform survey - magellan strategies

California CD10 Immigration

SurveyOctober 7th – 8th, 2013

Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the results of a 672n

autodial and cell phone survey of likely 2014 general election

voters in California Congressional District 10. The

survey was completed on behalf of America’s Voice. The

interviewing was conducted October 7th - 8th, 2013. This

survey has a margin of error of +/-3.78% at the 95 percent

confidence interval.

Democrats in Congress Image

Rating

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Democrats in Congress?

38%

53%

9%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLEUNSURE

MEN WOMAN

38% 39%

56%50%

6%11%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE UNSURE

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

38%38%

34%

41% 40%

47%

55%60%

50% 50%

16%

6% 6%9% 10%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Democrats in Congress?

38%

53%

9%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLEUNSURE

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

10%

69%

31%

83%

22%

56%

7% 9% 13%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE UNSURE

WHITE HISPANIC

34%

48%

57%

43%

9% 9%

Republicans in Congress Image

Rating

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

38%

42% 41%

34%32%

44%

51% 51%

61%58%

19%

7%8%

5%10%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress?

37%

54%

9%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLEUNSURE

MEN WOMAN

38% 36%

55% 53%

7% 11%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE UNSURE

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress?

37%

54%

9%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLEUNSURE

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

58%

17%

34%32%

77%

52%

10% 6% 14%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLEUNSURE

WHITE HISPANIC

34%42%

58%

46%

8% 12%

Voter Opinion on Immigration

Reform

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

52%

39%36%

45%

48%

27%29% 29%

27%29%

13%

21%

15% 16%

5%6%

2%

11%8%

11%

2%10% 9% 5% 6%

Thinking now about immigration reform…As you may know, the House of Representatives is beginning to consider different immigration reform proposals. One option is legislation that would significantly increase border security, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure that undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for legal status.  If immigrants were to meet a list of requirements, they could eventually apply for citizenship. Knowing this information, would you support or oppose this legislation?

72%

22% 6%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE

UNSURE

MEN WOMAN

42% 45%

27%29%

16%12%

7% 9%7% 5%

STRONGLY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT SUPPORT STRONGLY OPPOSE

SOMEWHAT OPPOSE UNSURE

Thinking now about immigration reform…As you may know, the House of Representatives is beginning to consider different immigration reform proposals. One option is legislation that would significantly increase border security, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure that undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for legal status.  If immigrants were to meet a list of requirements, they could eventually apply for citizenship. Knowing this information, would you support or oppose this legislation?

72%

22% 6%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE

UNSURE

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

39%

51%

37%

29% 27% 28%

16%10%

19%

11%5% 8%5% 7% 9%

STRONGLY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT SUPPORT STRONGLY OPPOSE

SOMEWHAT OPPOSE UNSURE

WHITE HISPANIC

43%50%

32%

20%

11%17%

8%5%5%

9%

Voter Opinion on Bi-Partisan

Immigration Reform

If Republicans and Democrats came together to pass a bipartisan immigration reform plan that would significantly increase border security, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure that undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for legal status, would you have a more favorable or less favorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress, or would it not make a difference in your opinion of the Republicans in Congress?

54%

19%

24%3%

TOTAL MORE FAVORABLETOTAL LESS FAVORABLENO DIFFERENCEUNSURE

MEN WOMAN

31%

26%28%

23%

8% 7%

12% 11%

18%

30%

3% 3%

MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLEMUCH LESS FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLENO DIFFERENCE UNSURE

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

35%

22% 23%

29% 29%

14% 15%

27% 29%

33%

4%

11%9%

8% 7%10%

18%

8% 7%

16%

32% 32%

28%25%

14%

5%2%

6%2% 2%

If Republicans and Democrats came together to pass a bipartisan immigration reform plan that would significantly increase border security, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure that undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for legal status, would you have a more favorable or less favorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress, or would it not make a difference in your opinion of the Republicans in Congress?

54%

19%

24%3%

TOTAL MORE FAVORABLETOTAL LESS FAVORABLENO DIFFERENCEUNSURE

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

37%

19%

30%23%

27%26%

7% 7%10%10%

14%

9%

21%

27%25%

3% 5%

MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLEMUCH LESS FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLENO DIFFERENCE UNSURE

WHITE HISPANIC

30%27%

29%

18%

8%5%

9%

14%

22%

30%

2%5%

Again, if Republicans and Democrats came together to pass the same bipartisan immigration reform plan that I just mentioned to you, would you have a more favorable or less favorable opinion of the Democrats in Congress, or would it not make a difference in your opinion of the Democrats in Congress?

63%

20%

14%

3%

TOTAL MORE FAVORABLETOTAL LESS FAVORABLENO DIFFERENCEUNSURE

MEN WOMAN

30% 31%33% 33%

15%

6%10% 10%10%

17%

3% 4%

MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLEMUCH LESS FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLENO DIFFERENCE UNSURE

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

37%

27%23%

29%

36%

30%

35%

32% 31% 35%

6%

14% 14%

11%

6%7% 7% 9%

11%12%

15%13%

17% 15%

10%5% 4% 5%

3% 1%

Again, if Republicans and Democrats came together to pass the same bipartisan immigration reform plan that I just mentioned to you, would you have a more favorable or less favorable opinion of the Democrats in Congress, or would it not make a difference in your opinion of the Democrats in Congress?

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

24%

40%

21%

32% 34% 31%

15%

4%

18%

13% 5%12%

14%12%

17%

3% 5% 1%

MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE

MUCH LESS FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLENO DIFFERENCE UNSURE

WHITE HISPANIC

32%27%

33%36%

9% 9%10% 11%

15%11%

2% 6%

63%

20%

14%

3%

TOTAL MORE FAVORABLETOTAL LESS FAVORABLENO DIFFERENCEUNSURE

Voter Opinion on Immigration

Reform

Would you support or oppose an immigration reform plan that ensures undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes, and wait a minimum of thirteen years before they can be eligible for citizenship?

69%

25% 6%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE

UNSURE

MEN WOMAN

37% 38%

34% 30%

11% 7%

15%17%

3% 7%

STRONGLY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT SUPPORT STRONGLY OPPOSE

SOMEWHAT OPPOSE UNSURE

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

49%

33%

40%

33% 34%31%

34%

28% 30%

37%

9% 9% 8%

12%

8%

11%15% 17%

19%17%

9%7%

5% 5%

Would you support or oppose an immigration reform plan that ensures undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes, and wait a minimum of thirteen years before they can be eligible for citizenship?

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

42%

35% 34%33%29%

36%

9% 8% 13%13%

21%13%

4% 7%5%

STRONGLY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT SUPPORT STRONGLY OPPOSE

SOMEWHAT OPPOSE UNSURE

WHITE HISPANIC

36%

40%

33% 31%

9%7%

17% 15%

5% 7%

69%

25% 6%

TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE

UNSURE

Voter Opinion on Denham Support

for Reform

If your Congressman Jeff Denham sponsored an immigration reform plan that ensured undocumented immigrants currently living in the US pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes and wait a minimum of thirteen years before becoming eligible for citizenship, would you be more or less likely to vote for Jeff Denham or would it not make a difference in your decision to vote for Jeff Denham?

43%

26%

25% 6%

MORE LIKELY LESS LIKELY

NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE NO OPINION

MEN WOMAN

45%41%

29%24%

22%28%

4% 7%

MORE LIKELY LESS LIKELY

NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE NO OPINION

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

57%

51%

45%

35% 36%

30%

16%

25%32%

26%

10%

22% 23%30%

33%

3%

11%6% 3% 5%

If your Congressman Jeff Denham sponsored an immigration reform plan that ensured undocumented immigrants currently living in the US pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes and wait a minimum of thirteen years before becoming eligible for citizenship, would you be more or less likely to vote for Jeff Denham or would it not make a difference in your decision to vote for Jeff Denham?

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

51%

35%44%

20%

30%33%

26%27% 19%

3% 9% 4%

MORE LIKELY LESS LIKELYNO DIFFERENCE UNSURE NO OPINION

WHITE HISPANIC

41%

50%

24%28%

31%

13%4% 9%

43%

26%

25% 6%

MORE LIKELY LESS LIKELY

NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE NO OPINION

Voter Opinion on Speaker Boehner

Allowing a Vote on Immigration

Reform

As you may know, a majority of members in the U.S. House of Representatives have stated they support an immigration reform plan that ensures undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes, and wait a minimum of thirteen years before they can be eligible for citizenship.However, the Speaker of the House, Republican John Boehner has said he will not allow the House to vote on the bill unless a majority of Republican members support it. Do you think Speaker Boehner should let the members of Congress have a yes or no vote on the immigration reform plan or should he put the vote on hold until a majority of Republican members agree to support the plan?

54%3

3%

13%

VOTE NOWHOLD UNTIL MAJORITYUNSURE

MEN WOMAN

56% 52%

34% 32%

10% 16%

VOTE NOW HOLD UNTIL MAJORITY UNSURE

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

55%

46%50%

57%54%

35%44% 39%

27% 29%

9% 10% 11%

16% 18%

As you may know, a majority of members in the U.S. House of Representatives have stated they support an immigration reform plan that ensures undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes, and wait a minimum of thirteen years before they can be eligible for citizenship.However, the Speaker of the House, Republican John Boehner has said he will not allow the House to vote on the bill unless a majority of Republican members support it. Do you think Speaker Boehner should let the members of Congress have a yes or no vote on the immigration reform plan or should he put the vote on hold until a majority of Republican members agree to support the plan?

54%3

3%

13%

VOTE NOWHOLD UNTIL MAJORITYUNSURE

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

39%

65%60%

45%

24%26%

16%11% 14%

VOTE NOW HOLD UNTIL MAJORITY UNSURE

WHITE HISPANIC

55%49%

30%39%

14% 12%

Demographics

Demographics