fall 2013 immigration survey summary presentation david flaherty, ceo magellan strategies

Fall 2013 Immigration

Survey Summary Presentation

David Flaherty, CEOMagellan Strategies

The following presentation is a summary of findings from seventeen Congressional Districts of likely 2014 voters. The primary focus of the research was to measure voter support and opposition to different immigration reform legislation proposals.

Each survey interviewed between 650 and 700 voters, and has a margin of error of approximately +/- 3.7% at the 95% confidence interval. The surveys were conducted using automated voice recorded technology, and some included live cell phone interviews. The surveys were fielded in October and November of 2013.

Magellan Strategies Immigration Reform Survey Summary December 11, 2013

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Congressional Districts Surveyed

CA-10 Jeff DenhamCA-21 David ValadaoCA-22 Devin NunesCA-23 Kevin McCarthyCA-25 Howard McKeonCA-49 Darrell IssaCO-03 Scott TiptonCO-04 Cory GardnerCO-06 Mike Coffman


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FL-10 Daniel Webster

FL-15 Dennis RossNV-02 Mark AmodeiNV-03 Joe HeckNY-02 Peter KingNY-19 Chris GibsonTX-02 Ted PoeTX-27 Blake

Farenthold

Voter Support for “Broad” Immigration Reform Legislation

Option

Key FindingThere is deep, broad support among all “major” voter subgroups in each Congressional district for immigration reform legislation that contains the following criteria.

Significantly increase border security,

Block employers form hiring undocumented immigrants,

Make sure undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for legal status, with the possibility of eventual citizenship. Magellan Strategies Immigration Reform Survey Summary December 11, 2013

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“As you may know, the House of Representatives is beginning to consider different immigration reform proposals.

One option is legislation that would significantly increase border security, block

employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure that

undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for

legal status. If immigrants were to meet a list of requirements, they could eventually

apply for citizenship.”

“Knowing this information, would support or oppose this legislation?”


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DistrictTotalSupp.

TotalOpp.

GOPSupp

.

DemSupp

.

Ind.Supp

.

Wht.Supp

.

Hisp.Supp

.

CA-10 Denham 79% 18% 68% 78% 64% 75% 69%

CA-21 Valadao 77% 18% 75% 81% 69% 77% 78%

CA-22 Nunes 74% 20% 71% 83% 61% 79% 68%

CA-23 McCarthy

76% 21% 74% 81% 74% 75% 77%

CA-25 McKeon 73% 23% 65% 85% 69% 71% 77%

CA-49 Issa 74% 22% 72% 83% 68% 76% 74%

CO-03 Tipton 77% 18% 74% 79% 77% 77% 75%

CO-04 Gardner 76% 20% 77% 80% 68% 77% 71%

CO-06 Coffman 74% 20% 71% 81% 71% 74% 71%

“One option is legislation that would significantly increase border security, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure that

undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for legal status. If immigrants were to meet a list of requirements, they could eventually apply for citizenship. Knowing this information, would support or

oppose this legislation?”


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DistrictTotalSupp.

Total

Opp.

GOPSupp

.

Dem Supp

.

Ind.Supp

.

Wht.Supp.

Hisp.

Supp.

FL-10 Webster 79% 16% 80% 80% 78% 79% 70%

FL-15 Ross 78% 16% 79% 80% 71% 80% 72%

NV-02 Amodei 72% 23% 70% 80% 60% 74% 62%

NV-03 Heck 74% 21% 71% 82% 67% 75% 64%

NY-02 King 82% 13% 84% 81% 78% 83% 83%

NY-19 Gibson 79% 16% 82% 79% 77% 80% 71%

TX-02 Poe 79% 18% 76% 90% 74% 77% 83%

TX-27 Farenthold

77% 17% 81% 81% 69% 77% 79%

“One option is legislation that would significantly increase border security, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure that

undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for legal status. If immigrants were to meet a list of requirements, they could eventually apply for citizenship. Knowing this information, would support or

oppose this legislation?”

Voter Support for Immigration Reform

Plan Addressing Undocumented

Immigrants

Key FindingA significant majority of voters, particularly Republican voters, support an immigration reform plan that addresses the issue of undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. with the following criteria;

Pay a penalty, Learn English, Pass a criminal background check, Pay taxes, Wait a minimum of thirteen years before

they can be eligible for citizenship.


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“Would you support or oppose an immigration reform plan that

ensures undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. pay a penalty, learn

English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes,

and wait a minimum of thirteen years before they can be eligible

for citizenship?”


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12

“Would you support or oppose an immigration reform plan that ensures undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes, and wait a minimum of thirteen years before they can be eligible for

citizenship?”

DistrictTotalSupp.

TotalOpp.

GOPSupp

.

DemSupp

.

Ind.Supp

.

Wht.Supp

.

Hisp.Supp

.

CA-10 Denham

69% 25% 75% 64% 70% 69% 71%

CA-21 Valadao 69% 25% 74% 67% 63% 70% 68%

CA-22 Nunes 69% 25% 71% 65% 73% 68% 72%

CA-23 McCarthy

73% 24% 76% 63% 77% 71% 72%

CA-25 McKeon 69% 27% 73% 67% 64% 71% 68%

CA-49 Issa 70% 28% 76% 63% 64% 70% 80%

CO-03 Tipton 69% 29% 79% 55% 67% 69% 65%

CO-04 Gardner

69% 26% 79% 62% 58% 69% 75%

CO-06 Coffman

65% 33% 70% 60% 63% 66% 63%


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DistrictTotalSupp.

Total

Opp.

GOPSupp

.

Dem Supp

.

Ind.Supp

.

Wht.Supp.

Hisp.

Supp.

FL-10 Webster 70% 24% 78% 62% 61% 70% 64%

FL-15 Ross 71% 26% 77% 64% 66% 70% 67%

NV-02 Amodei 63% 34% 72% 53% 58% 65% 56%

NV-03 Heck 68% 30% 74% 61% 67% 71% 55%

NY-02 King 77% 20% 82% 69% 79% 76% 76%

NY-19 Gibson 69% 27% 79% 61% 65% 68% 79%

TX-02 Poe 72% 25% 83% 69% 62% 73% 72%

TX-27 Farenthold

69% 28% 76% 62% 67% 72% 61%

“Would you support or oppose an immigration reform plan that ensures undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes, and wait a minimum of thirteen years before they can be eligible for

citizenship?”

Survey Methodology

The seventeen Congressional District surveys were conducted using automated voice recorded technology, and some included live cell phone interviews. The samples for all surveys were randomly drawn from a voter file. The survey response data was weighted based upon past voter turnout demographics. Three attempts were made to interview each household. Any questions regarding the survey methodology should be directed to David Flaherty.

He can be reached at 303-861-8585 or [email protected].


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fall 2013 immigration survey summary presentation david flaherty, ceo magellan strategies

Documents

sure undocumented immigrants

summary of findings

ceomagellan strategies

broad support

legal status

border security

criminal record register

block employers form