broadband: the driver of economic and job growth -...
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Broadband: the driver of economic and job growth
Broadband Lightning Talk ICT Solutions Day, SDN Forum , World Bank
February 28, 2013
Impact of Broadband investment is well established
Source: Katz (2010); Analysys Mason (2010); Qiang & Rossotto (2009); and Czernich et.al. (2009) * Only includes Germany. ** Average of 5 country studies, including the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, and a Middle Eastern country, from various sources (2003 and 2004) and Qiang and Rossotto 2009 study; *** Limited to mobile broadband impact in India; + various countries, upper range applies to developing countries and lower range to developed countries; ++ sample of 20 OECD countries.
Impact on GDP of an increase of 10% in broadband penetration
0.26% 0.24%
0.60%
1.10%
1.21%
0.90%
0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50%
Katz*
McKinsey (average)**
Analysys Mason***
Qiang & Rossotto +
Czernich et.al. ++
Minimum
Maximum
1.38%
1.50%
0.70%
Study Year Scope Type
I Type
II Network
Effect
Crandall et.al. 2003 US … 2.17 …
Katz et.al. 2008 CH 1.4 … …
Atkinson et.al. 2009 US … 3.60 1.7
Katz et.al. 2009a US 1.83 3.43 …
Libenau et.al. 2009 UK … 2.76 …
Katz et.al. 2009b DE 1.45 1.93 …
Estimated broadband employment creation multipliers
Source: Katz (2009), citing Crandall et.al. (2003); Katz et.al. (2008); Atkinson et.al. (2009); Katz et.al. (2009a); Libenau et.al. (2009); and Katz et.al. (2009b)
Note: Type I (Direct+Indirect)/Direct; Type II (Direct+Indirect+Induced)/Direct
10% annual broadband penetration increases annual GDP growth by 0.24-1.5 p.
p., and creates 1.5 to 4.5 indirect jobs for each job created.
There is a growing need to supply exploding demand and traffic
Total Broadband Traffic Forecast
Source: Cisco VNI, 2011
Mobile Broadband Traffic Forecast
Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, 2012
… and a significant gap exists in many developing countries
46.3
25.9 24.2
13.4
9.7 7.1
3.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Europe CIS** TheAmericas
World Arab States Asia &Pacific
Africa
Mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants, 2010*
* Estimate ** Commonwealth of Independent States Regions are based on the ITU BDT Regions, see: http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/definitions/regions/index.html Source: ITU World Telecommunication /ICT Indicators database
23.9
15.5
8.7 8.0
5.7
2.3
0.2 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Europe TheAmericas
CIS** World Asia &Pacific
Arab States Africa
Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants 2010*
* Estimate ** Commonwealth of Independent States Regions are based on the ITU BDT Regions, see: http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/definitions/regions/index.html Source: ITU World Telecommunication /ICT Indicators database
World Bank Backbone Projects: Africa
2011
2007 submarine cables
Implemented
Committed FY07-10
Committed and in Preparation
East Africa (RCIP): US$424 million
Central Africa (CAB): US$312 million
West Africa (WARCIP): US$260 million
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