brazil snowflake 07 04 07

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TheTheSnowflake Snowflake

EffectEffect

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Unique is What We Seek!

2July 04, 2007

wayne.hodgins@autodesk.com

www.autodesk.com/waynehodgins

Strategic Futurist

President & Co-FounderLearnativity.org

Chair,IEEE Learning Technology Standards CommitteeLearning Object Metadata

Strategic Advisor

Strategic Advisor

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July 04, 2007

Seeing Patterns & Trends:

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July 04, 2007

WARNING: Time Warp Ahead!!

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July 04, 2007

It’s ALL Yours!For Questions & Comments please contact:

wayne.hodgins@autodesk.com

For slides, blogs, podcasts and more:

www.autodesk.com/waynehodgins

Slides available @ http://www.slideshare.net/WayneH/

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July 04, 2007

www.CreativeCommons.org

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July 04, 2007

DisruptiveInnovation!

• There’s one in YOUR future!!

• And another one right behind it!

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Perfecting the Irrelevant?!!

Are we all very very very

busy doing this???June 29, 2007 ,

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Solution:

• Don’t confuse your ACTIVITIES with your VALUE PROPOSITION!

• Work at figuring out what YOUR Value Proposition is: You personally Your team Your department Your entire organization

June 29, 2007 ,

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TheTheSnowflake Snowflake EffectEffect

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Unique is What We Seek!

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The Snowflake Effect:

The ideal is getting to “just right*”…

• Just the right CONTENT, to

• Just the right PERSON, with

• Just the right PARTNERS, at

• Just the right TIME, on

• Just the right DEVICE, in

• Just the right CONTEXT, and

• Just the right WAY ………* not to be confused with perfection!!

UP

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The Snowflake Effect

MaSS PeRSONALiZATiON

It’s not about “e” it’s about me!!• Personalized Performance Experiences for every person every day

all 6.6 billion of us -- every day!!

• Just for me and just right: Time, place, amount, device, medium, way… On demand, adaptive

• Markets of one: Billions of Markets

““Capitalizing on EVERY Teachable Moment”Capitalizing on EVERY Teachable Moment”

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Snowflake Effect• Uniqueness

Not only are YOU a snowflake but so too is every moment and situation a unique snowflake

The ultimate competitive advantage?

• Mass Personalization Just the right, the new definition of perfection Pluralization of Personalization; applies to teams, groups, orgs

• Feedback loops Explicit Implicit inferred

• MC2 : Mass Contributions Mass Customization

• Mashups are the model

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Premature Arrival of the Future

The future is already here. It is just not

evenly distributed!

- William Gibson

The art of the possible in practice today!

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Pandora and the Music Genome Project

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Pandora and the Music Genome Project

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Blog: thelongtail.co

m

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Long Tail•The future of business is selling less for more

•The economics of abundance§Creative squandering§Don’t do one thing; do it all, Don’t store some; store it all; don’t sell one piece of content, sell it all

•Market of one is the biggest of all?

•The “getting small” of business:Combine enough non hits on the Long Tail and you've got a market bigger than the hits!

"The biggest money is in the smallest sales.“ Barnes & Noble carries 130,000 books More than half Amazon sales from OUTSIDE top 130,000

The market for books not sold in the bookstore is larger than those that are!

Google makes most of its money from small advertisers eBay the same Children today will grow up never knowing the meaning of “out of

print”

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Scarcity

Abundance

With thanks to Chris Anderson see his blog www.longtail.com

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Anatomy of the Long Tail

Courtesy Wired magazine

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Courtesy Wired magazine

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Feb.28, 2007 source: www.kurzweilai.net

Exponential Growth of Computing:

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Feb.28, 2007

Exponential Growth of Human Lifespan:

* Centenarians = people over 100 years old

*

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Feb.28, 2007

Am

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Time

TAG you’re it!The Learning IMPERATIVE

Rate of NewRate of NewTechnology Technology IntroductionIntroduction& Innovation& Innovation

TTechnologyechnology

AAssimilationssimilation

GGapap

Rate at Which Marketplace Rate at Which Marketplace and Individuals Assimilateand Individuals AssimilateAnd VALUE!!And VALUE!!

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The Future is a Monstrous & Marvelous

MASHuP !Want to join? W

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Mashups: Current “techie” definitions

• A mash up is a website or web application that seamlessly combines content from more than one source into an integrated experience.

• Content used in mashups is typically sourced from a third party via a public interface or API. Other methods of sourcing content for mashups include Web feeds (e.g. RSS or Atom) and JavaScript.

• The etymology of this term almost certainly derives from its similar use in pop music.

• Many people are experimenting with mashups using eBay, Amazon, Google, Windows Live, and Yahoos APIs.

• Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mashup

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That’s SOOOooooo yesterday Dad!Wayne’s definition:• A mash up is a unique assembly of individual things

from more than one source into a single integrated whole.

• Mashups are for EVERYTHING!• Music• Content

Wiki, blogs

• Searching/finding Tag Clouds

• Events• Competencies, people

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Mashups simplified:You already know the modelYou already know the model

Think Lego blocks!Think Lego blocks!

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ELF: eLearning FrameworkMashup for Learning?!

http://www.elframework.org/framework/

Universal Quals

Apprentice Journeyman MasterRecruit

“Individualized” Career DevelopmentThe Navy “5 Vector Model”

EM Quals

First line Leader

Foundational Leader

Primary Leader

Advanced Leader

Command Leader

Executive Leader

Platform Career OptionsEM Gas Turbine 5VM (DDG-51)

Engineering Quals

PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT

PERSONAL DEVELOPMENT

LEADERSHIP

CERTS | QUALS

PERFORMANCE

Industry Certs

Personal Dev SO

Personal Dev SO

Personal Dev SO

Lifelong Learning

Lifelong Learning

Lifelong Learning

Master S/O

Journeyman S/O

Apprentice S/O

E-1 E-2 E-3 E-4 E-5 E-6 E-7 E-8 E-9

Recruit S/O

EM2 Sciulli

Universal Quals

Engineering Quals

EM Quals

Universal Quals

Engineering Quals

EM QualsIndustry Certs

Industry Certs

Industry Certs

Apprentice Positions

Journeyman Positions

Master Positions

Selected Electricians

All Electricians

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What’s coming next?• Mashups for the Masses

Content management for the rest of us: Joombla! LifeRay Droople

Personalized Content assembly: Web presence for everyone from Grandma to Geek Zune

• New user interfaces and HCI Eg “Sugar” interface on $100 laptop from OLPC

• Mapping & Location Based• Ubiquitous Feedback loops

Today’s examples include Pandora, StumbleUpon Ties to performance (especially peak performance)

• Widgets Universal widget API

• Context capture and management• Location based data and context• Activity centric (vs applications)• Automated Metadata• Economies of Abundance, Long Tail & Right Brain• Snowflake Effect

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Innovation not replication!

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Innovation not replication!

Let’s stop “flapping” Let’s stop “flapping”

and replicating past artifactsand replicating past artifacts

It is NOT about flapping faster!!It is NOT about flapping faster!!

Let’s start thinking Let’s start thinking

DIFFERENTLYDIFFERENTLY!!!!

How does this apply to YOU?!

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For Questions & Comments please contact:

wayne.hodgins@autodesk.com

See “Off Course – On Target” for slides, podcasts, blogs and much

more:www.autodesk.com/waynehodgins

Muito obrigado!