brazil snowflake 07 04 07
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slides from presentation by Wayne Hodgins "The Snowflake Effect: Unique is what we seek" at eLeanring Brasil 2007 on July 4 in Sao Paulo.TRANSCRIPT
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TheTheSnowflake Snowflake
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Way
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Unique is What We Seek!
2July 04, 2007
www.autodesk.com/waynehodgins
Strategic Futurist
President & Co-FounderLearnativity.org
Chair,IEEE Learning Technology Standards CommitteeLearning Object Metadata
Strategic Advisor
Strategic Advisor
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July 04, 2007
Seeing Patterns & Trends:
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July 04, 2007
WARNING: Time Warp Ahead!!
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July 04, 2007
It’s ALL Yours!For Questions & Comments please contact:
For slides, blogs, podcasts and more:
www.autodesk.com/waynehodgins
Slides available @ http://www.slideshare.net/WayneH/
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July 04, 2007
www.CreativeCommons.org
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July 04, 2007
DisruptiveInnovation!
• There’s one in YOUR future!!
• And another one right behind it!
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Perfecting the Irrelevant?!!
Are we all very very very
busy doing this???June 29, 2007 ,
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Solution:
• Don’t confuse your ACTIVITIES with your VALUE PROPOSITION!
• Work at figuring out what YOUR Value Proposition is: You personally Your team Your department Your entire organization
June 29, 2007 ,
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TheTheSnowflake Snowflake EffectEffect
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Unique is What We Seek!
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The Snowflake Effect:
The ideal is getting to “just right*”…
• Just the right CONTENT, to
• Just the right PERSON, with
• Just the right PARTNERS, at
• Just the right TIME, on
• Just the right DEVICE, in
• Just the right CONTEXT, and
• Just the right WAY ………* not to be confused with perfection!!
UP
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The Snowflake Effect
MaSS PeRSONALiZATiON
It’s not about “e” it’s about me!!• Personalized Performance Experiences for every person every day
all 6.6 billion of us -- every day!!
• Just for me and just right: Time, place, amount, device, medium, way… On demand, adaptive
• Markets of one: Billions of Markets
““Capitalizing on EVERY Teachable Moment”Capitalizing on EVERY Teachable Moment”
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Snowflake Effect• Uniqueness
Not only are YOU a snowflake but so too is every moment and situation a unique snowflake
The ultimate competitive advantage?
• Mass Personalization Just the right, the new definition of perfection Pluralization of Personalization; applies to teams, groups, orgs
• Feedback loops Explicit Implicit inferred
• MC2 : Mass Contributions Mass Customization
• Mashups are the model
June 29, 2007 ,
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Premature Arrival of the Future
The future is already here. It is just not
evenly distributed!
- William Gibson
The art of the possible in practice today!
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Pandora and the Music Genome Project
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Pandora and the Music Genome Project
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Blog: thelongtail.co
m
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Long Tail•The future of business is selling less for more
•The economics of abundance§Creative squandering§Don’t do one thing; do it all, Don’t store some; store it all; don’t sell one piece of content, sell it all
•Market of one is the biggest of all?
•The “getting small” of business:Combine enough non hits on the Long Tail and you've got a market bigger than the hits!
"The biggest money is in the smallest sales.“ Barnes & Noble carries 130,000 books More than half Amazon sales from OUTSIDE top 130,000
The market for books not sold in the bookstore is larger than those that are!
Google makes most of its money from small advertisers eBay the same Children today will grow up never knowing the meaning of “out of
print”
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Scarcity
Abundance
With thanks to Chris Anderson see his blog www.longtail.com
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Anatomy of the Long Tail
Courtesy Wired magazine
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Courtesy Wired magazine
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Feb.28, 2007 source: www.kurzweilai.net
Exponential Growth of Computing:
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Feb.28, 2007
Exponential Growth of Human Lifespan:
* Centenarians = people over 100 years old
*
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Feb.28, 2007
Am
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Time
TAG you’re it!The Learning IMPERATIVE
Rate of NewRate of NewTechnology Technology IntroductionIntroduction& Innovation& Innovation
TTechnologyechnology
AAssimilationssimilation
GGapap
Rate at Which Marketplace Rate at Which Marketplace and Individuals Assimilateand Individuals AssimilateAnd VALUE!!And VALUE!!
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The Future is a Monstrous & Marvelous
MASHuP !Want to join? W
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Mashups: Current “techie” definitions
• A mash up is a website or web application that seamlessly combines content from more than one source into an integrated experience.
• Content used in mashups is typically sourced from a third party via a public interface or API. Other methods of sourcing content for mashups include Web feeds (e.g. RSS or Atom) and JavaScript.
• The etymology of this term almost certainly derives from its similar use in pop music.
• Many people are experimenting with mashups using eBay, Amazon, Google, Windows Live, and Yahoos APIs.
• Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mashup
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That’s SOOOooooo yesterday Dad!Wayne’s definition:• A mash up is a unique assembly of individual things
from more than one source into a single integrated whole.
• Mashups are for EVERYTHING!• Music• Content
Wiki, blogs
• Searching/finding Tag Clouds
• Events• Competencies, people
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Mashups simplified:You already know the modelYou already know the model
Think Lego blocks!Think Lego blocks!
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ELF: eLearning FrameworkMashup for Learning?!
http://www.elframework.org/framework/
Universal Quals
Apprentice Journeyman MasterRecruit
“Individualized” Career DevelopmentThe Navy “5 Vector Model”
EM Quals
First line Leader
Foundational Leader
Primary Leader
Advanced Leader
Command Leader
Executive Leader
Platform Career OptionsEM Gas Turbine 5VM (DDG-51)
Engineering Quals
PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT
PERSONAL DEVELOPMENT
LEADERSHIP
CERTS | QUALS
PERFORMANCE
Industry Certs
Personal Dev SO
Personal Dev SO
Personal Dev SO
Lifelong Learning
Lifelong Learning
Lifelong Learning
Master S/O
Journeyman S/O
Apprentice S/O
E-1 E-2 E-3 E-4 E-5 E-6 E-7 E-8 E-9
Recruit S/O
EM2 Sciulli
Universal Quals
Engineering Quals
EM Quals
Universal Quals
Engineering Quals
EM QualsIndustry Certs
Industry Certs
Industry Certs
Apprentice Positions
Journeyman Positions
Master Positions
Selected Electricians
All Electricians
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What’s coming next?• Mashups for the Masses
Content management for the rest of us: Joombla! LifeRay Droople
Personalized Content assembly: Web presence for everyone from Grandma to Geek Zune
• New user interfaces and HCI Eg “Sugar” interface on $100 laptop from OLPC
• Mapping & Location Based• Ubiquitous Feedback loops
Today’s examples include Pandora, StumbleUpon Ties to performance (especially peak performance)
• Widgets Universal widget API
• Context capture and management• Location based data and context• Activity centric (vs applications)• Automated Metadata• Economies of Abundance, Long Tail & Right Brain• Snowflake Effect
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Innovation not replication!
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Innovation not replication!
Let’s stop “flapping” Let’s stop “flapping”
and replicating past artifactsand replicating past artifacts
It is NOT about flapping faster!!It is NOT about flapping faster!!
Let’s start thinking Let’s start thinking
DIFFERENTLYDIFFERENTLY!!!!
How does this apply to YOU?!
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For Questions & Comments please contact:
See “Off Course – On Target” for slides, podcasts, blogs and much
more:www.autodesk.com/waynehodgins
Muito obrigado!