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Beginning the Democratic Comeback

Democracy Matters ConferencePresented by Jonathan Cowan

January 20, 2017

In one sense, a very close race

StateElectoral

VotesTotal

Ballots CastTrump Margin

Michigan 16 4,799,284 10,704

Pennsylvania 20 6,115,402 44,292

Wisconsin 10 2,976,150 22,748

Close Race in Three Key States

HRC and the Popular Vote

• Clinton won 400,000 more votes than Obama in 2012

• Won more raw votes than any Dem nominee except Obama in 2008

• Won Orange County—first Dem to do so in 90 years

A Shrunken Democratic Party

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Change in Democratic Electoral StrengthSince 2008 Election

Senate

House

Governors

State LegislativeChambers

The Balance of Power in the StatesDemocrats have trifecta in 6 states. Republicans in 25.

Democrats in Danger of Becominga Regional Party - Presidential

NY, MA, CA

HRC = 15,296,202 or 64.6%

Trump = 8,389,049 or 35.4%

Other 47 states

HRC = 50,548,408 or 48.1%

Trump = 54,590,587 or 51.9%

Democrats in Danger of Beinga Regional Party - Congressional

NY, MA, CA = 66-23 Dem House Lead

Other 47 states = 128-218 GOP House Lead

Acela Corridor and Pacific Coast = 98-34 Dem House LeadOther 40 states = 96-207 GOP House Lead

Democrats in Danger of Beinga Regional Party - Counties

Rethinking Our Theory of the Electorate

Demographic Change Isn’t Evenly Dispersed

Why Demography ≠ Destiny Down Ballot

159 Reliably Blue

Districts44.8% White

90 Purple Swing

Districts

70.3% White

186

Reliably Red

Districts

74.2% White

Demography = Destiny?

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

White Black Hispanic Asian Other

Shifting Counties

Switcher Counties: From Obama to Trump

Michigan Pennsylvania Wisconsin

Median Household Income $42,949.38 $49,493.29 $48,562.36

Whites 89.2% 87.3% 91.9%

College Whites 25+ 17.7% 19.3% 18.2%

Non College Whites 25+ 73.9% 71.2% 75.9%