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Beginning the Democratic Comeback
Democracy Matters ConferencePresented by Jonathan Cowan
January 20, 2017
In one sense, a very close race
StateElectoral
VotesTotal
Ballots CastTrump Margin
Michigan 16 4,799,284 10,704
Pennsylvania 20 6,115,402 44,292
Wisconsin 10 2,976,150 22,748
Close Race in Three Key States
HRC and the Popular Vote
• Clinton won 400,000 more votes than Obama in 2012
• Won more raw votes than any Dem nominee except Obama in 2008
• Won Orange County—first Dem to do so in 90 years
A Shrunken Democratic Party
-60.0%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Change in Democratic Electoral StrengthSince 2008 Election
Senate
House
Governors
State LegislativeChambers
The Balance of Power in the StatesDemocrats have trifecta in 6 states. Republicans in 25.
Democrats in Danger of Becominga Regional Party - Presidential
NY, MA, CA
HRC = 15,296,202 or 64.6%
Trump = 8,389,049 or 35.4%
Other 47 states
HRC = 50,548,408 or 48.1%
Trump = 54,590,587 or 51.9%
Democrats in Danger of Beinga Regional Party - Congressional
NY, MA, CA = 66-23 Dem House Lead
Other 47 states = 128-218 GOP House Lead
Acela Corridor and Pacific Coast = 98-34 Dem House LeadOther 40 states = 96-207 GOP House Lead
Democrats in Danger of Beinga Regional Party - Counties
Rethinking Our Theory of the Electorate
Demographic Change Isn’t Evenly Dispersed
Why Demography ≠ Destiny Down Ballot
159 Reliably Blue
Districts44.8% White
90 Purple Swing
Districts
70.3% White
186
Reliably Red
Districts
74.2% White
Demography = Destiny?
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
White Black Hispanic Asian Other
Shifting Counties
Switcher Counties: From Obama to Trump
Michigan Pennsylvania Wisconsin
Median Household Income $42,949.38 $49,493.29 $48,562.36
Whites 89.2% 87.3% 91.9%
College Whites 25+ 17.7% 19.3% 18.2%
Non College Whites 25+ 73.9% 71.2% 75.9%