beacon hill presentation feb 2012

“It is change, continuing change, inevitable change, that is the dominant factor in society today. No

sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but

the world as it will be....” Isaac Asimov

Seth Kaplan

Vice President for Policy and Climate Advocacy Conservation Law Foundation

Beacon Hill Seminars

February 12, 2012

1

Energy Resources Rise & Fall: The Story of Whale Oil

2

Source: PRICE TRENDS OVER A COMPLETE HUBBERT CYCLE: THE CASE OFTHE AMERICAN WHALING INDUSTRY IN 19th CENTURY, Ugo Bardi, Dipartimento di Chimica - Università di Firenze (2004)

The Story from Hawaii: The undeniable “Keeling Curve”

3

The Electricity Grid of the past . . . and the future

4Graphic courtesy of Alan Friefeld of Viridity Energy

Edison’s Pearl Street Station Photographic Services of the Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Inc.

The History of US Energy use in one slide

5

Source: The Encyclopedia of Earth, Energy Transitions Past and Future, 2008.

Energy Sources and Uses: U.S. Edition

6

Energy Sources and Uses: Massachusetts Edition

7

Climate: The New Imperative, lessons from Europe about sectors

SOURCE: European Climate Foundation 8

EU-27 total GHG emissionsGtCO2e per year

Sector

Power

Road transport

Industry

Buildings

Agriculture

Waste

Air & sea transport

Forestry

Withinsector1, 2

>95%

20%

35% (CCS3)

45% (efficiency and new builds)

20%

100%

30%

Carbon sinks

Fuel shift

75% (electric vehicles, biofuels

and fuel cells)

5% (heat pumps)

50% (heat pumps)

20% (biofuels)

Abatement

95% to 100%

95%

40%

95%

20%

100%

50%

-0.25 GtCO2e

1 Based on the McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve2 Large efficiency improvements already included in the baseline3 CCS applied to 50% of industry (cement, chemistry, iron and steel, petroleum and gas, not applied to other industries)

1990

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.1

2050

5.4

0.30.30.2

1.0

0.9

0.6

0.9

1.0

0.7

0.9

5.2

2010

1.2

1.0

1.2

0.9

1.1

0.5

2030

5.3

0.5

0.1

1.2

0.3

0.9

2050 abated

-0.3

0.6

0.4

5.9

1.2

-80%

The case for Efficiency and Renewable Energy

9

Environmental

Economic

Political

Electric System Benefits

Emissions Reduction – Public Health Water Use/Discharge

Diversification /ReliabilityJapan shows wind can help keep the lights on Every place has indigenous renewable &

demand resources (unlike fossil fuels)

Jobs, attract employers, jobs, local property taxes, jobs and of course jobs

Self sufficiency, independence, it’s not just about rates – no one really pays a rate

Popularity matters (or should) in a democracy

Zero fuel cost resources – price stability

Climate: electricity is the “hinge” sector

The Question from Copenhagen: Is there reason for hope?

10