barrage or what? social & economic impacts. cardiff-weston barrage: estimated construction cost:...

Barrage or What?

Social & Economic Impacts

Cardiff-Weston Barrage:

• Estimated construction cost: £20.9bn

• Gross value-added over 40 years: £1.6 billion-£4.8 billion

Port of Bristol

• Current turnover: £70m:

• Jobs: 600 direct employees, 7,500 jobs at risk

Port of Bristol

• DTZ report: Net gain of 200-300 jobs once a Weston-Cardiff barrage is completed

Tidal scheme constructionbenefits

From 500 to 1,500 new jobs a year

over 5-10 years

Tidal scheme constructionbenefits

BUT the proposed Bristol Port deep water expansion would create an

estimated 1,800 new jobs

Port of Bristol

“The most economical port distribution location in the UK”

Impact of total loss of Bristol Port

• Estimated £400m-800m loss of port-related revenue

• Plus the cost of investing in alternative seaport and inland infrastructure facilities elsewhere

Negative impacts on fishing

• During barrage construction: £5.6-£8.2 million, 30-50 lost jobs

• After barrage completion: £17.0-£25.8 million, 60-80 lost jobs

Uncertain tourism benefits

• Projected local tourism revenues: £3.4-27 million

• Between 20 and 130 new jobs

Marine leisure/marina development

No projections

Energy gains

Energy security is an economic issue

Energy gains

Tidal energy generation potential:

0.6-15GW/17TW/h

- Up to halfway towards UK’s 15% renewable energy target for 2020

Uncharted waters

Learning to live with uncertainty

How to weigh diverse opposing factors?

Apples and Pears

Political risks

Risks of division are both regional and national

Thank you for your attention!