avalon park retail market analysis fishkind and associates, inc. 12051 corporate blvd. orlando, fl...

Avalon Park Retail Market Analysis

Fishkind and Associates, Inc.

12051 Corporate Blvd.Orlando, FL 32817

407-382-3256www.fishkind.com

December 12, 2008

December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Fishkind and Associates, Inc.Associates, Inc.

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Site Location As the map

shows, the Site is located in southeast Orange County; east of Hwy. 417, north of Hwy. 528, and south of SR 50.

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Trade Area MethodologyThe Consultant created two distinct

trade areas surrounding the Site.A 10-minute drive-time trade area

was created to estimate the demand for neighborhood serving square footage at the site.

A 20-minute drive-time trade area was created to estimate the demand for community serving square footage at the site.

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10-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area

The map shows the 10-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area.

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20-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area

The map shows the 20-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area.

December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Fishkind and Associates, Inc.Associates, Inc.

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Neighborhood Demand The map

shows all vacant parcels within the 10-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area

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Community Demand The map

shows all vacant parcels within the 20-Minute Drive-Time Trade Area, as indicated by the Orange County Property Appraiser.

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Demand Summary

10-Minute Trade Area 2008 2010 2015 2020Households 15,707 19,674 26,134 26,134 Neighborhood Serving Demand (sq.ft.) 105,081 131,620 174,838 174,838

20-Minute Trade Area 2008 2010 2015 2020Households 56,237 62,362 82,280 97,575 Community Serving Demand (sq.ft.) 986,643 1,094,095 1,443,549 1,711,892

Total Demand 2008 2010 2015 2020Neighborhood and Community (sq.ft.) 1,091,723 1,225,715 1,618,387 1,886,730

December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Fishkind and Associates, Inc.Associates, Inc.

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Neighborhood SupplyThe Consultant identified sixty-five (65)

neighborhood serving centers or stand-alone businesses within a 20-minute drive-time of the Site.

The centers/businesses contain 1.1 million square feet of neighborhood serving space.

Due to the varying distances of the centers/businesses from the Site, the volume of competing neighborhood serving retail space is approximately 402k square feet.

December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Fishkind and Associates, Inc.Associates, Inc.

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Neighborhood Supply The map

shows the locations of the sixty-five (65) competing neighborhood centers.

December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Fishkind and Associates, Inc.Associates, Inc.

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Neighborhood Summary

10-Minute Trade Area 2008 2010 2015 2020Households 15,707 19,674 26,134 26,134 Neighborhood Serving Demand (sq.ft.) 105,081 131,620 174,838 174,838 Neighborhood Serving Supply (sq.ft.) (401,769) (401,769) (401,769) (401,769)

Net Demand for Neighborhood Space (sq.ft.) (296,688) (270,149) (226,931) (226,931)

December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Fishkind and Associates, Inc.Associates, Inc.

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Community SupplyThe Consultant identified ninety (90)

community serving centers within a 40-minute drive-time of the Site.

The centers contain 14 million square feet of community serving space.

Due to the varying distances of the centers from the Site, the volume of competing community serving retail space is approximately 1.2 million square feet.

December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Fishkind and Associates, Inc.Associates, Inc.

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Community Supply The map

shows the locations of the ninety (90) competing community centers.

December 12, 2008 Fishkind and Fishkind and Associates, Inc.Associates, Inc.

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Community Summary

20-Minute Trade Area 2008 2010 2015 2020Households 56,237 62,362 82,280 97,575 Community Serving Demand (sq.ft.) 986,643 1,094,095 1,443,549 1,711,892 Community Serving Supply (sq.ft.) (1,195,088) (1,195,088) (1,195,088) (1,195,088)

Net Demand for Community Space (sq.ft.) (208,445) (100,993) 248,461 516,804

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Existing Retail ConditionsCurrently, the Consultant estimates that

there is an excess supply of 505,134 square feet of neighborhood and community serving retail space in the market.

However, by 2020, the Consultant projects that the market could support an additional 289,873 square feet of neighborhood and community serving retail space.

Existing Conditions 2008 2010 2015 2020Total Demand (sq.ft.) 1,091,723 1,225,715 1,618,387 1,886,730 Total Supply (sq.ft.) (1,596,857) (1,596,857) (1,596,857) (1,596,857) Net Demand (sq.ft.) (505,134) (371,142) 21,530 289,873

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Projected Commercial Capacity The map

shows the locations of the vacant commercial parcels within the 20-Minute Trade Area as indicated in the Orange County FLUM.

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ConclusionsThe analysis shows the relevant market

surrounding the Site reaching build-out in 2020.

At that time, the market will contain 97,575 households who will be generating demand for 1.89 million square feet of neighborhood and community serving retail space at the Site.

The existing supply of neighborhood and community serving retail space totals 1.60 million square feet.

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ConclusionsBetween 2008 and 2020 there will be need for

an additional 289k square feet of neighborhood and community serving retail space to meet the projected levels of demand.

The market currently contains capacity for an additional 569,371 square feet of neighborhood and community serving retail space.

Based on these projections, there is currently a surplus of available retail supply (both existing supply and future capacity) in the market to meet the projected market demand.