automated vehicles and transportation system sustainability

AUTOMATED VEHICLES AND TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM SUSTAINABILITYNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAN PLANNING ASSOCIATIONAPRIL 26, 2014DR. LOUIS A. MERLIN, AICP

DOES AUTOMATION LEAD TO SUSTAINABILITY?

•Answer: Either Yes, No, or Maybe.•Scenario 1: The end of congestion•Scenario 2: The beginning of mega-congestion

WHAT DO WE MEAN BY AUTOMATED VEHICLES?

Automation

Connection Sharing

Convergence??

AUTOMATION: THE CAR THAT DRIVES IN REAL WORLD CONDITIONS

CONNECTION: V2V, V2I, V2X

Source: Florida Department of Transportation

CAR SHARING & RIDE SHARING

Source: The Nature Conservancy

SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT REQUIRES THE INTEGRATION OF ALL THREE

COMPONENTS!

Sustainable

Transport

Automation

ConnectedSharing

SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT VIA AUTOMATION INTEGRATION

• Congestion reduction – Flow and capacity optimized in real time via integration• Built in Pricing – High marginal costs encourages shorter trips• Affordability – Low fixed costs means more people can benefit

from mobility• Vehicle fleet – Smaller vehicle sizes and more efficient fleet

possible•Multimodalism – Alternative modes can be more competitive

without auto oriented urban designs (Less parking!)

ROADBLOCKS TO INTEGRATION

• The Vehicle Ownership Paradigm• Automation: The slow rollout model•Market uncertainty: Will consumers want this?• Liability: Shift from driver to manufacturer•Chicken and egg problem: Regulations and

infrastructure for integrated automation don’t exist yet

VALUE OF PILOT PROJECTS

•Break through the chicken and egg problem•Demonstrate benefits of integrated automation in real world settings•CityMobil2 – Europe•University of Michigan Mobility Transformation Center

CITYMOBIL2: CITIES DEMONSTRATING AUTOMATED ROAD PASSENGER TRANSPORT• Pilot projects in real cities• How will passengers respond?• Are these systems safe and robust?• How does this system interact with other components of

the transport system?• Analysis of legal barriers and standards• Analysis of economic impacts• Link: http://www.citymobil2.eu/en/

UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN MOBILITY TRANSFORMATION CENTER

•Pilot study of connected vehicles with human drivers•What are the safety benefits?•How do drivers react to connected vehicle

information?• Link: http://safetypilot.umtri.umich.edu/

•By 2021, Ann Arbor could become the first American city with a shared fleet of networked, driverless vehicles•Link: http://victors.engin.umich.edu/article.php?id=116

A MODEST PROPOSAL:AUTOMATED TRANSIT FOR THE ATLANTA BELTLINE

Source: Atlanta Beltline Inc.

Source: Induct Technology.com

A MODEST PROPOSAL:AUTOMATED TRANSIT FOR THE ATLANTA BELTLINE• Vehicles designed to work in areas with pedestrian activity•Less expensive than light rail infrastructure•Flexible to a range of demand•Opportunity to be technology pioneer

QUESTIONS?

Dr. Louis Merlin, AICPUniversity of North Carolina, Chapel Hilllouismerlin@gmail.com

AUTOMATED VEHICLES AND TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM SUSTAINABILITYNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAN PLANNING ASSOCIATIONAPRIL 26, 2014DR. LOUIS A. MERLIN, AICP

SUPPLEMENTAL SLIDES

LONG RANGE PLANNING AND UNCERTAINTY

• Infrastructure planning has long lead times, high costs, and irreversibility•Uncertainty over sources transportation finance•Uncertainty over climate impacts on infrastructure•Uncertainty over demographic and economic trends•Uncertainty over vehicular technologies and their

implications