area forecast discussion 545 am chst mon feb 24 2014

wind cld cover (base) precip

Tue takeoff(02:15AM)

20 kt NE SCT 2000, 30000 ft scattered

midflight (10AM)

Convection SE of Guam (9N, 150E), cld tops to 56kft, lightning likely

Landing9PM)

25 kt NE SCT 2000, 30000 ft scattered

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION545 AM CHST MON FEB 24 2014

SCT showers NW ASSOCIATED WITH A STAIONARY SHEAR LINE. Isolated elsewhere.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W SE OF CHUUK IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL NO INCLINATION TO MOVE ANYWHERE.

Progs ALL BRING INCREASING NE WINDS IF 93W moves W.

‘current’ conditions:satellite IR imagery on 2014-02-23, ~21UTC

(02-24 Mon, ~7AM)

•Convection organized near 9N 150E (cld tops ~56 kft w/ lightning near 9N, 150E)

Water Vapor 2014-02-24 Mon, ~7AM

Water Vapor 2014-02-23 Sun, ~7AM

Overnight at Andersen: 02-24 Mon AM

•tropopause -84.7 C (188.45 K) at 56.2 kft

‘current’ conditions:sounding on 2014-02-23, 12UTC

(02-23 Sun 10PM)

Tue take-off conditions (GFS):1000mb precip & winds on 2014-02-24, 18UTC

(02-25 Tue, 04AM)

NE20 knt

•Surface cyclone SE of Guam

Tue take-off conditions (GFS):850mb RH & winds on 2014-02-24, 18UTC

(02-25 Tue, 04AM)

Dry slot over Guam. NE winds 25 kts.

Tue take-off conditions (GFS):500mb RH & winds on 2014-02-24, 18UTC

(02-25 Tue, 04AM)

Tue landing conditions (GFS):1000mb precip & winds on 2014-02-25, 12UTC

(02-25 Tue, 10PM)

NE25 knt

Tue landing conditions (GFS):850mb RH & winds on 2014-02-24, 12UTC

(02-25 Tue, 10PM)

NE25 knt

Tue take-off and landing conditions (NCAR):

Take Off: Landing:

Feb 24 18UTC Feb 25 12UTC

SCT

SCT SCT

SCT

Tue Take Off conditions (GFS):high clouds & 150mb winds on 2014-02-24,

18UTC(02-25 Tue, 4AM)

CiCu/Cb

Thu midflight conditions (GEOS5):Minimum Temperature on 2014-02-25, 00UTC

(02-25 Tue, 10AM)

RBN

Thu midflight conditions (GEOS5):Tropopause altitude on 2014-02-25, 00UTC

(02-25 Tue, 10AM)

55 kft

53 kft50 kft