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www.digitaltvresearch.com
April 2018
Editor: Simon Murray
Tel: +44 20 8248 5051
Free newsletter published: Four times/year
info@digitaltvresearch.com
Copyright: Digital TV Research Ltd
Copyright notice: No part of this publication may be copied, duplicated or photocopied without written consent from Digital TV
Research Ltd.
Table of contents:
• Africa to add 17.4 million pay TV subs
• Competition bites for MENA pay TV
• Latin America pay TV decelerates
• US pay TV revenues to fall by $27 billion
• Eastern Europe to add 17m digital pay TV subs
• Ghana pay TV subscriber and revenue prospects
• Saudi Arabia pay TV subscriber and revenue prospects
• Costa Rica pay TV subscriber and revenue prospects
• Canada pay TV subscriber and revenue prospects
• Hungary pay TV subscriber and revenue prospects
April 2018
Digital TV Research publication schedule for 2018 Title Publication Price
1 Sub-Saharan Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1200/€1440/$1560
2 Middle East & North Africa Pay TV Forecasts
January £1200/€1440/$1560
3 Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560
4 Latin America Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560
5 North America Pay TV Forecasts March £500/€600/$650
6 Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560
7 Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts May £1200/€1440/$1560
8 Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts May £1500/€1800/$1950
9 Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950
10 Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950
11 Pay TV Operator Prospects June £800/€960/$1040
12 Pay TV Revenue Prospects July £800/€960/$1040
13 Netflix Forecasts July £600/€720/$780
14 Sub-Saharan Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts August
£1000/€1200/$1300
15 Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts
August £1000/€1200/$1300
16 Asia Pacific OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1000/€1200/$1300
17 Latin America OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1000/€1200/$1300
18 North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £500/€600/$650
19 Eastern Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1000/€1200/$1300
20 Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts
October £1000/€1200/$1300
21 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1800/€2160/$2340
22 Global SVOD Forecasts November £1500/€1800/$1950
23 OTT TV & Video Prospects November £1000/€1200/$1300
24 SVOD Prospects December £900/€1080/$1170
PLEASE CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON OUR LATEST PUBLICATIONS
PLEASE CLICK HERE TO ACCESS OUR CORPORATE BROCHURE
April 2018
Africa to add 17.4 million pay TV subs
The number of pay TV subscribers in Sub-Saharan Africa will increase by 74% between 2017 and 2023 to reach 40.89 million. However, the Sub-Saharan Africa Pay TV Forecasts report estimates that subscriber growth will outstrip revenue progress. Pay TV revenues will climb by 41% to $6.64 billion by 2023, up by $2 billion on 2017.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, explained: “Pay TV competition in Sub-Saharan Africa is becoming more and more intense, especially given the launch of Kwese TV in 14 countries during 2017.”
Murray continued: “Pay TV operators in most countries have lowered subscription fees and/or subsidized/given away equipment as competition intensifies. By no means are all of the existing pay TV platforms are expected to survive in the long run. Having said that, several pay TV operators are booming.”
Kenya will continue to show considerable digital TV growth, but it is overcrowded. Kenya now boasts two pay DTT platforms, a cable network and five main satellite TV operators – too many for a country with only 4.01 million TV households.
From the 23.49 million pay TV subscribers at end-2017, 13.78 million were satellite TV and 9.11 million DTT. By 2023, satellite TV will contribute 20.89 million and DTT 17.53 million. This means an extra 7 million pay satellite TV subscribers and 8 million pay DTT homes.
Nigeria will have the most pay TV subscribers by 2023 – having overtaken South Africa in 2021. The top eight countries will supply three-quarters of the total in 2023.
April 2018
Source: Digital TV Research
Multichoice had 12.48 million subs across satellite TV platform DStv and DTT platform GOtv by end-2017, which will grow to 16.66 million by 2023. France’s Vivendi had 2.96 million subs to its Canal Plus satellite TV platform and Easy TV by end-2017; forecast to climb by nearly 2 million to 4.87 million by 2023.
StarTimes/StarSat will enjoy the most impressive growth: from 6.23 million subs at end-2017 to 13.42 million by 2023 – growing from half the Multichoice total in 2017 to 81% of its total by 2023.
Nigeria, 9,685
S Africa, 9,281
Kenya, 2,888Tanzania, 2,269
DRC, 2,035
Uganda, 1,767
Cote D'Ivoire, 1,384
Angola, 1,056
Others, 10,523
Pay TV subs by country in 2023 (000)
April 2018
Competition bites for MENA pay TV
Pay TV revenues for the 20 countries covered in the eighth edition of the Middle East and North Africa Pay TV Forecasts report will reach $3.62 billion in 2023 – up by only 7.8% on 2017. Pay TV revenues will fall in 2018. They will be flat in 2019 before starting a slow recovery.
Concentrating just on the 13 Arabic-speaking countries, pay TV revenues will grow by 24% from $1.18 billion in 2017 to $1.46 billion in 2023, despite pay TV subscriptions rising by 47% over the same period to 5.84 million. If subscriptions are growing faster than revenues, then ARPUs must be falling.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “The region has always been difficult for pay TV, with many homes receiving many FTA channels and rampant piracy being commonplace. beIN is shaking up the market with its strong slate of exclusive sports rights. beIN is now providing more entertainment content.”
beIN’s moves have hit long-established rival OSN. OSN benefits from exclusive long-term deals with all of the Hollywood studios. However, OSN has struggled to push its subscriber base much beyond 1 million subscribers.
Murray explained: “Competition is increasing – not only from beIN, but also from the multitude of SVOD platforms that have launched in recent years. These platforms compete more directly against OSN than beIN due to their emphasis on drama. No SVOD platforms can compete against beIN with live sports provision.”
Murray continued: “OSN’s reaction was to cut its subscription prices substantially in February 2017. Digital TV Research believes that further cuts will be made as OSN struggles to hold on to its subscriber base until its fees are just above beIN’s.”
OSN’s revenues will reach $498 million in 2023 – down from $700 million in 2015. beIN’s revenues will exceed OSN’s in 2022. beIN’s revenues will double between 2016 and 2023. beIN will overtake OSN by subscriber numbers in 2018. beIN is forecast to have 1.87 million satellite TV subscribers by 2023 – ahead of OSN’s 1.46 million [so excluding subscribers to their channels on other platforms such as IPTV and cable].
April 2018
Source: Digital TV Research
beIN’s sister company Digiturk will retain regional market leadership despite more intense competition in Turkey. Israel will experience cord-cutting. Israel will lose 27,000 pay TV subs between 2017 to 2023. We forecast that Israeli pay TV revenues will fall from more than $1 billion in 2015 to $767 million in 2023 as cheaper OTT platforms force traditional pay TV operators to lower their fees.
2017 2023
Other 580 874
Yes 462 385
HOT 472 359
D-Smart 125 124
TTNet 27 126
Turksat 81 76
Digiturk 688 655
beIN 269 521
OSN 622 498
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Pay TV revenue growth by operator ($m)
April 2018
Latin America pay TV decelerates
Although the economic recession waned somewhat in 2017, the Latin American pay TV sector was still affected. According to the eighth edition of the Latin America Pay TV Forecasts report, the number of pay TV subscribers was flat year-on-year.
Fewer than 5 million additional pay TV subscribers are expected between 2017 and 2023 – bringing the total to almost 76 million. Pay TV penetration will not climb beyond the current 44% of TV households.
Source: Digital TV Research Ltd
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Given its continuing economic and social problems, Brazil lost 1 million pay TV subscribers between 2015 and 2017. Its peak year of 2014 will not be bettered until 2023.”
Murray continued: “Mexico recorded impressive growth in 2016, but its pay TV subscriber count fell in 2017. It will continue to decline until a slow recovery starts in 2020. The 2023 total will be just under the 2016 peak. However, it’s not all bad news as Claro and Telefonica will enter Argentina and Mexico, although this is likely to involve OTT.”
Mexico overtook Brazil in 2016 to become Latin America’s largest pay TV market, despite Brazil having twice as many TV households as Mexico. Brazil has been losing subscribers since November 2014. However, Brazil will regain top slot in 2023 - just.
2017 2018 2023
Others 18,552 18,953 20,808
Colombia 5,557 5,691 6,161
Argentina 9,253 9,388 9,599
Brazil 18,181 17,839 19,656
Mexico 19,417 19,283 19,560
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Latin America pay TV subscribers by country (000)
April 2018
Pay TV revenues in Latin America [subscriptions and PPV] will grow by only 1.0% between 2017 and 2023 to $19.74 billion. Revenues will fall in 2017, 2018 and 2019 before a slow recovery begins.
Brazil ($7.01 billion in 2023) will remain the top country by pay TV revenues by some distance, followed by Mexico ($2.49 billion) and Argentina ($2.49 billion). Brazilian subscription rates are much higher than Mexican ones. Brazil’s 2023 total will be lower than 2017 and the peak year of 2014.
Two operators dominate pay TV in Latin America. Claro/America Movil had 13.91 million pay TV subscribers (Down by 500,000 on the previous year) by end-2017 and DirecTV/Sky had 21.31 million. These two companies accounted for nearly half of the region’s pay TV subs by end-2017.
April 2018
US pay TV revenues to fall by $27 billion
US pay TV revenues peaked in 2015, at $101.71 billion, according to the eighth edition of the North America Pay TV Forecasts report. A $26.58 billion decline (26%) is forecast between 2015 and 2023 to take the total down to $75.13 billion.
Cable TV revenues peaked in 2010 at $54.11 billion, but they will fall to $36.75 billion by 2023. Cable will lose nearly 12 million subscribers between 2010 and 2023 (although most of the heaviest losses have already taken place).
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, added: “Cable TV is not the only platform to suffer. Satellite TV and IPTV are also losing subscribers and revenues. Much of this is due to the operators shifting their subscribers to online platforms. However, growth from vMVPDs is not expected to make up completely for the subscriber and revenue shortfalls from traditional pay TV.”
IPTV’s fall is mainly due to AT&T encouraging its U-Verse subscribers to convert to DirecTV, its other pay TV asset. This is the reverse of what has happened in most other countries. IPTV revenues spiked in 2015 at $9.60 billion, and they will halve to $4.77 billion in 2023. The number of IPTV subs topped 12.00 million in 2014, but it will decline to 6.26 million in 2023.
Satellite TV revenues will fall from $39.78 billion in 2017 to $33.61 billion in 2023 – or down by 16%. Satellite TV subscriptions will drop by 4.08 million between end-2017 and 2023; having fallen by nearly 3 million in 2017 alone. DISH is pushing its vMVPD platform Sling TV hard, with DirecTV Now also making an impact.
The number of US traditional pay TV subscribers will fall from a zenith of 100.34 million in 2012 to 90.35 million by end-2017 and down to 80.33 million in 2023. Pay TV penetration will fall from 87.6% of TV households in apex year 2013 to 66.7% in 2023.
Although Canada is losing pay TV subscribers, its problems are not as severe as its Southern neighbor. Pay TV penetration reached a highpoint in 2013 at 85.1%. The level will fall to 74.8% by 2023. However, the number of pay TV subscribers will be 11.17 million by 2023 – about the same as 2017. Pay TV revenues will fall from a peak of US$6.82 billion in 2015 to US$6.01 billion by 2023.
April 2018
Eastern Europe to add 17m digital pay TV subs
The number of digital pay TV subscribers in Eastern Europe will increase from 25.49 million in 2010 to 61.57 million in 2017 and onto 78.08 million by 2023. The Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts report states that digital pay TV subs will climb by 27% between 2017 and 2023.
Source: Digital TV Research Ltd
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Eastern Europe is slowly ridding itself of the legacy of analog cable TV. Twenty million households still subscribed to analog cable at end-2017 – more than digital cable. Many of these homes receive very basic packages; often as part of their rent. Some of the remaining analog cable subs do not want to convert to more expensive digital pay TV platforms and will therefore switch to DTT.”
Russia will account for half of the region’s pay TV subscribers in 2023. However, Russia will lose 1.5 million pay TV subscribers between 2017 and 2023. The number of pay TV subs will fall in 10 of the 22 countries covered in the report between 2017 and 2023.
Pay TV revenues in Eastern Europe peaked at $6.53 billion in 2017 and will slowly fall to $6.33 billion by 2023. Analog cable revenues will drop by $1 billion over this period, so digital pay TV revenues will increase by $769 million to $6.25 billion.
2010 2017 2018 2023
Analog 34,728 19,964 17,158 1,075
Digital 25,491 61,568 64,109 78,082
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Eastern Europe pay TV homes by technology (000)
April 2018
Digital TV Research publication schedule for 2017 Title Publication Price
Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560
Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts May £1200/€1440/$1560
Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts May £1800/€2160/$2340
Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts May £1800/€2160/$2340
Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts May £1800/€2160/$2340
Netflix Forecasts June £750/€900/$975
Global Pay TV Subscriber Databook June £750/€900/$975
Global Pay TV Revenue Databook June £750/€900/$975
Global Pay TV Operator Databook June £750/€900/$975
Sub-Saharan Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts July
£1000/€1200/$1300
Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts July
£1000/€1200/$1300
Asia Pacific OTT TV & Video Forecasts August £1000/€1200/$1300
Latin America OTT TV & Video Forecasts August £1000/€1200/$1300
North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £600/€720/$780
Eastern Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts
September £1000/€1200/$1300
Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts
October £1000/€1200/$1300
Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1800/€2160/$2340
Global AVOD Forecasts October £1000/€1200/$1300
Global SVOD Forecasts October £1500/€1800/$1950
Online TV Piracy Forecasts November £1200/€1440/$1560
SVOD Digest November £500/€600/$650
OTT & Pay TV Forecasts December £1500/€1800/$1950
PLEASE CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON OUR LATEST PUBLICATIONS
PLEASE CLICK HERE TO ACCESS OUR CORPORATE BROCHURE
Discounts are available for multiple report purchases.
Please contact lydia@digitaltvresearch.com
April 2018
Ghana pay TV subscriber prospects
2017 2018 2019 2023
A terres 350 127 0 0
Pay DTT 277 295 318 417
Free DTT 1,022 1,297 1,465 1,671
Free satellite 93 104 115 157
Pay Satellite 204 249 298 450
IPTV 0 4 11 66
A Cable 0 0 0 0
D cable 0 0 0 0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Subscribers by platform (000)
10
154
295
50
39
18
176
417
146
177
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Canal Plus
DStv
Gotv
StarSat
Others
Subscribers by operator (000)
2023 2018
April 2018
Ghana pay TV revenue prospects
2017 2018 2019 2023
Pay DTT 16 17 18 24
Pay Satellite 50 52 59 74
IPTV 0 0 1 4
A Cable 0 0 0 0
D cable 0 0 0 0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Revenues by platform ($m)
4
44
16
2
1
6
42
24
11
20
0 10 20 30 40 50
Canal Plus
DStv
Gotv
StarSat
Others
Revenues by operator ($m)
2023 2018
April 2018
Saudi Arabia pay TV subscriber prospects
2017 2018 2019 2023
A terres 0 0 0 0
Pay DTT 0 0 0 0
Free DTT 632 573 523 427
Free satellite 4,137 4,225 4,305 4,671
Pay Satellite 757 785 812 934
IPTV 384 453 511 641
A Cable 0 0 0 0
D cable 0 0 0 0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Subscribers by platform (000)
447
337
303
149
0
561
374
404
237
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
beIN
OSN
Invision
eLife
Others
Subscribers by operator (000)
2023 2018
April 2018
Saudi Arabia pay TV revenue prospects
2017 2018 2019 2023
Pay DTT 0 0 0 0
Pay Satellite 273 265 254 287
IPTV 104 126 144 189
A Cable 0 0 0 0
D cable 0 0 0 0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Revenues by platform ($m)
112
153
85
41
0
157
130
119
70
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
beIN
OSN
Invision
eLife
Others
Revenues by operator ($m)
2023 2018
April 2018
Costa Rica pay TV subscriber prospects
2017 2018 2019 2023
A terres 182 118 0 0
Pay DTT 0 0 0 0
Free DTT 208 281 404 413
Free satellite 173 175 178 187
Pay Satellite 257 260 263 277
IPTV 18 22 27 51
A Cable 222 168 114 0
D cable 325 379 436 569
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,600
Homes by platform (000)
215
168
183
18
147
61
36
175
151
256
54
170
51
39
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Tigo
Cabletica
Telecable
Movistar
Claro
Sky
Others
Subscribers by operator (000)
2023 2018
April 2018
Costa Rica pay TV revenue prospects
2017 2018 2019 2023
Pay DTT 0 0 0 0
Pay Satellite 98 96 93 89
IPTV 5 5 6 11
A Cable 78 59 42 0
D cable 105 118 132 158
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Revenues by platform ($m)
74
55
58
2
42
35
13
52
42
71
13
43
27
11
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Tigo
Cabletica
Telecable
Movistar
Claro
Sky
Others
Revenues by operator ($m)
2023 2018
April 2018
Canada pay TV subscriber prospects
2017 2018 2019 2023
A terres 0 0 0 0
Pay DTT 0 0 0 0
Free DTT 2,986 3,188 3,298 3,615
Free satellite 143 144 145 149
Pay Satellite 2,034 1,933 1,860 1,793
IPTV 2,034 1,933 1,860 1,793
A Cable 57 0 0 0
D cable 6,297 6,276 6,247 6,215
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,000
Homes by platform (000)
1,694
1,632
703
1,632
708
1,214
1,587
1,151
113
661
1,678
1,616
696
1,616
656
1,126
1,745
1,262
114
666
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Rogers
Videotron
Cogeco
Shaw cable
Shaw satellite
Bell satellite
Bell IPTV
Telus
Max TV
Others
Subscribers by operator (000)
2023 2018
April 2018
Canada pay TV revenue prospects
2017 2018 2019 2023
Pay DTT 0 0 0 0
Pay Satellite 1,354 1,267 1,205 1,118
IPTV 1,627 1,681 1,707 1,712
A Cable 29 0 0 0
D cable 3,723 3,641 3,534 3,184
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Revenues by platform ($m)
994
798
410
947
484
774
928
667
67
519
860
704
357
828
429
682
943
683
62
467
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Rogers
Videotron
Cogeco
Shaw cable
Shaw satellite
Bell satellite
Bell IPTV
Telus
Max TV
Others
Revenues by operator ($m)
2023 2018
April 2018
Hungary pay TV subscriber prospects
2017 2018 2019 2023
A terres 0 0 0 0
Pay DTT 91 86 82 77
Free DTT 285 300 315 365
Free satellite 78 78 78 77
Pay Satellite 846 803 769 710
IPTV 733 780 816 883
A Cable 823 702 583 0
D cable 1,053 1,150 1,244 1,728
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500
Homes by platform (000)
959
1,055
782
179
86
458
1,179
1,173
681
189
77
99
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
UPC
T-Home
Digi TV
Invitel
MinDig
Others
Subscribers by operator (000)
2023 2018
April 2018
Hungary pay TV revenue prospects
2017 2018 2019 2023
Pay DTT 8 8 7 7
Pay Satellite 131 124 118 108
IPTV 85 92 96 100
A Cable 106 90 76 0
D cable 159 173 183 232
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Revenues by platform ($m)
157
121
96
23
8
83
175
122
79
23
7
41
0 50 100 150 200
UPC
T-Home
Digi TV
Invitel
MinDig
Others
Revenues by operator ($m)
2023 2018
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