analysis and mapping of impacts under climate change for adaptation and food security (amicaf)

Analysis and Mapping of Impacts

under Climate Change for Adaptation

and Food Security (AMICAF)

1st

phase (2012-2015) and 2nd

phase (2015-2018 Feb)

Hiroki SASAKIClimate and Environment Division, FAO

Agenda

1. Overview of AMICAF

2. Launching AMICAF 2nd phase

3. Activities in the Project

4. AMICAF’s added value

5. Timeline

1. Overview of AMICAF

What is AMICAF?

Analysis and Mapping of Impacts under Climate Change for Adaptation and Food Security (AMICAF)

Trust Fund Project, funded by Japan

AMICAF 1st phase- November 2011 to March 2015

Participated countries in the 1st phase: The Philippines and Peru

AMICAF 2nd phase (South-South Cooperation) , three years project

Project Background

APEC Ministerial Meeting on Food Security

(October 2010, Niigata, Japan)

Included in Action Plan:

33: “Hold workshop to disseminate feasible adaptation and mitigation measures identified by the food security mapping system incorporating climate change factorable data”.

Japan funded FAO project: AMICAF

Objectives

Filling the Climate Change ‘Knowledge’ Gap towards Strategic Response to Climate Change

By collecting and analyzing data on rainfall, temperature, water discharge from streams as well as crop, hydrology and economic modelling, the project enables governments to make evidence-based climate change adaptation planning.

AMICAF try to bridge climate change impact assessment, food insecurity vulnerability analysis and livelihood adaptation approaches.

2. Launching 2nd

phase

AMICAF 2nd

phase-

(AMICAF-SSC)

The Donor (Japan) decided to support a new project in two more countries, one in Asia and one in Latin America, utilizing SSC scheme.

Project Period: Oct 2014 – Feb 2018

Total Approved Budget: US$ 1,243,126

AMICAF structure

(1st

phase and 2nd

phase)

Component 1:

Impacts Analysis of Climate Change on

Agriculture

Component 2:

Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis

at household level

Component 3:

Enhance Community Capacities to Adapt

Climate Change

Component 4: Policy

and Planning Support

AMICAF-SSC (Indonesia and Paraguay)

Guidance materials for promoting the AMICAF approach in other countries

South-South Cooperation from AMICAF 1

country

Only in Asian countries

Only in Asian countries

Progress in 2015

Discussion with Minister and Vice Minister in August 2015,

Asuncion, Paraguay

Inception workshop in November 2015, Jakarta, Indonesia

Scoping mission and selection of two recipient countries (Indonesia and Paraguay)

Progress in 2016

Inception meeting in Nov 2016, Asuncion, Paraguay Component 2 training in July 2016, Bogor, Indonesia

Several trainings in Indonesia

Kick-off meeting, technical meeting, workshop

Component 2 SSC workshop with Pilipino experts in September 2016, Bogor, Indonesia AMICAF/MOSAICC workshop with experts from Peru, Uruguay,

Guatemala, and Colombia in Dec 2016, Asuncion, Paraguay

3. Activities in the Project

Component 1 :

Impacts of Climate Change

on Agriculture

Nation-wide assessment of projected impacts of climate change on agriculture

at the sub-national scale

MOSAICC(MOdelling System for Agricultural

Impacts of Climate Change)

Statistical climate

downscaling modelsHistorical weather

observations

Downscaled climate projections

Hydrological modelCrop growth

simulation models

GCM low resolution

climate projections

Historical discharge

records

Water availability

for irrigation

Historical water

use statisticsHistorical yield data

Yield projections

Crop parameters

Soil data

Technology trend

scenarios

Soil and land use data

Dam data

Food insecurity vulnerability analysis (Component2)

Climate Change Impact

Analysis(Component1)

Are some regions more affected than other regions by temperature increase or precipitation increase/decrease?

Are some regions more affected than other regions by productivity changes?

Are some regions more affected than other regions by river flow changes?

Contribute to Policy

Questions on Climate

Impact

% change in precipitation (A1B, BCM2 model) from 1971-1999 to 2011-2040

BCM2 A1B and A2 Tmin projections aggregated to 79 provinces (2011 - 2040 mean)

• Climate change makes differentiated impacts on provincial yield; some positive; others negative

• Yields in rain fed areas will be more negatively affected than irrigated areas, both in the A1B and A2 scenarios at the BCM2 and CNCM3 climate models

Rainfed rice yield change 2011-2040 vs 1971-2000

Water balance PREC-PET (map) and Discharge (box plots) for 3 GCMs x 2 emission scenarios

2011-2040

Changes in discharge by season and agreement among 3 GCMs x 2 emission scenarios

2011-2040 vs 1971-2000

Component 2:

Food Insecurity

Vulnerability Analysis

Characterizing vulnerability to food insecurity under climate change, and identifying variables associated with

highest levels of vulnerability

Connecting Component 1 and 2

Component 1 :

Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture

Component 2:

Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis

Are some regions more affected than other regions in terms of food security?

Should we allocate more resources to help more vulnerable regions to adapt to climate change?

Contribute to Policy

Questions: vulnerability to

food insecurity under

climate change

Projected Propensity to Experience Hunger

(Philippines)

Present Future

Component 3:

Enhance Community

Capacities to Adapt

Climate Change

Link impact assessments and vulnerability analysis with adaptation

actions on the ground

Typhoon tracking by FFS participants

Fabricating manual rain gauge Varietal evaluation during Field Day

Component 3 Livelihood Adaptation to

Climate Change:

Climate-smart Farmer Field School

Community hazard assessment

• Organize Farmer Field School (FFS) Workshop on CC adaptation management in Indonesia as SSC scheme

Assess current management practice in target communities (take into consider existing initiatives) + FAO projects in the past

Farmer Field School

Component 4:

Policy and Planning

Support

A workshop to review component 1 to 3 toward evidence-based policy planning

4. AMICAF’s added value

What is added value for

Recipient Countries ?

Capacity development of country’s experts is a focus

In the end, experts produce evidence-base of climate change impacts and vulnerability using their own data

Final outcome of AMICAF

Policy briefs for each country (10-15 pages)

It also intends to share the knowledge, techniques and experiences obtained in the projects through technical guidance materials.

Technical reports for each component/sub-component

The Philippines, Peru, Indonesia and Paraguay

Thank very much.

Hiroki SASAKI,

Climate and Environment Division, FAO

Hiroki.sasaki@fao.org