advancedtca big wins for first movers
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AdvancedTCABig Wins for First MoversBrough Turner
Senior VP & CTO
January 2003 Slide 2
Global Telecom Industry in Transition….still
Little confidence Visibility remains poor Capacity, debt and business
models still problematic More consolidation expected Recovery slipping beyond ’03?
Some positive signs Consolidation/ restructuring
momentum growing Strength in parts of Asia New products - where there is
large (and fast) ROI Growth in enhanced services
January 2003 Slide 3
Historical PerspectiveEarly British Railroad Development
RR construction authorized by Parliament* Miles of track; Capital in millions of pounds sterling
Year Miles Capital Year Miles Capital 1833 218 5.5 1842 55 5.3 1834 131 2.3 1843 90 3.9 1835 202 4.8 1844 805 20.5 1836 955 22.9 1845 2,896 59.5 1837 543 13.5 1846 4,540 132.6 1838 49 2.1 1847 1,295 39.5 1839 54 6.5 1848 373 15.3 1840 0 2.5 1849 17 3.9 1841 14 3.4 1850 4.1 70.4
* Andrew Odlyzko, U of Minn., private correspondence
January 2003 Slide 4
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Mileage
Railways authorized by British Parliament (not necessarily built)< http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/talks/index.html >
Long History of Techno Bubble Overinvestment and Crashes
January 2003 Slide 5
19th Century British Railroads
Attitudes in 1840 & 1850 were extremely negative, but ...
More than 70 years of steady traffic growth depressions had only slight effect on growth rate
Cycles of financial investment “Irrational exuberance” to nearly zero investment Many bankruptcies, but…
No serious interruption of service!
Over long term, many fortunes were made and some were lost
January 2003 Slide 6
World Telecom Statistics Wireless Growth
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
140019
91
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Landline Subs
Mobile Subs
(mil
lio
ns
)
Crossoverhappened
May 2002 !
Source: ITU World Telecom Indicators 2002
January 2003 Slide 7
Wireless Growth
Cellular market growth consistently beats long term forecasts
Wireless local loop becoming competitive Costs driven by Moore’s law and cellular volumes
Wireless capacity created by engineers, not by regulators 100 years of exponential growth in bits /Hz /area Bandwidth scarcity is a regulatory problem
Wireless can change the “last mile” problem Wireless local loop; wireless IP access “Unlicensed” bands foster grassroots connectivity
January 2003 Slide 8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
United States Western Europe Asia Pacific Rest of World
Broadband Adoption Rates - Outpacing Cellular
Source: IDC, January 2002
Con
nect
ions
(m
illio
ns)
January 2003 Slide 9
Internet Backbone Traffic in U.S.
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Traffic (low est.) Traffic (high est.)
TB
/mon
th (
in D
ec)
Based on data from A. Odlyzko, U of Minn.
January 2003 Slide 10
Internet Traffic
Internet traffic (roughly) doubles every year consistently for more than 15 years at least 90% growth in 2002
Global telecom revenue growing 6% per year Consumer now getting benefit of Moore’s law Same money purchases dramatically more service
each year
Continuing need for ever more cost-effective network elements
January 2003 Slide 11
New Equipment Demands
Early in 10-20 year transition of telecom to converged communications Tiny to small penetration rates so far Multiple platform transitions yet to come
Equipment providers dramatically downsized R&D budgets down more than a third, but negligible
consolidation so far… Focus on core competencies; leverage the rest Product managers looking for help
Looking to COTS technology to reduce cost and cut time to market Ethernet, PCs, OSs, DBs, software!!!
January 2003 Slide 12
Off-the-Shelf Technology
Leverage larger commercial markets represented by market standards Less important whether standards are formal
or de facto Market leverage is what counts
Common, relatively simple, interfaces that can hide diverse complexities
AdvancedTCA is poised to foster a large commercial, off-the-shelf market
January 2003 Slide 13
AdvancedTCA Everywhere?
Not quite… pure storage likely to use SAN racks pure computing likely to use IT blade servers existing platforms will be milked wherever possible very high volume still justifies custom engineering
but, AdvancedTCA opportunity much, much larger
than CompactPCI or VME matches broader range of telecom applications and
requirements better fosters the migration from custom designs
January 2003 Slide 14
AdvancedTCA
Bigger boards, more power, more cooling smaller is beautiful -- to consumers! not for COs supports latest (power hungry) CPUs support bleeding edge network processors, DSPs
and ASIC designs
Telco power and mechanicals versus CompactPCI’s industrial focus, adapted for
enterprise telecom, and then adapted again 600 mm practice; ETSI & NEBS; full redundancy;
high density I/O; front and back fiber I/O
Telco mindset !
January 2003 Slide 15
Serial Technology
Data transfer rates beat parallel buses press the physical limits on copper, and fiber SERDES becoming just another silicon block
Follows networking paradigm autonomous modules with Ethernet and other point-
to-point interconnect
Leverage emerging “switch fabrics” Ethernet Infiniband, Starfabric, PCI Express
January 2003 Slide 16
Management Structure
Mandatory common approach to management AdvancedTCA, PICMG 3.0, section 3.1 leverages and enhances PICMG 2.9 address telco requirements leveraging IT
technology (IPMI), protocols and software
Reverse benefits applicable back to CompactPCI (and potentially to
CompactTCA) as well at VITA 38
Basis for combined systems that leverage AdvancedTCA and other IT equipment
January 2003 Slide 17
ATCA Success Indicators
Leveraging years of CompactPCI telecom learning while, so far, avoiding “second system
syndrome” leveraging and evolving PICMG 2.x software,
e.g. 2.9 management
Leveraging IP networking concepts and IT software base basic protocols; databases; clustering
software; …
January 2003 Slide 18
Looking Forward
Despite Internet / Telecom Bubble and Crash: Subscriber and traffic growth robust today!
wireless subs; broadband subs; Internet traffic
Carrier Capex growing by late 2003 into 2004 pent-up demand for new service platforms,
beginning this year new round of disruption in traditional infrastructure
will take off in 2004-2005
Next generation of platform designs leveraging applicable off-the-shelf technology
Leveraging AdvancedTCA !
January 2003 Slide 19
Telecom and AdvancedTCA
Continuous gains in underlying technology Memory, processors, fiber and radio bandwidth
Very small global market penetration 6B humans, 2B phones
Convergence means replacing existing networks
Substantial, long term, worldwide growth!
Significant positive impact on humanity
AdvancedTCA accelerates the process
January 2003 Slide 20
First Mover Advantage
Goes to those who move, now…
Have Fun - Make Money !
N M S C O M M U N I C A T I O N STechnology for tomorrow’s networks
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