adaptation to climate change in livestock sector of mongolia batima p., shiirev-adya., bat b.,...

Adaptation toAdaptation toClimate Change in Climate Change in Livestock sector of Livestock sector of MongoliaMongolia

Batima P., Shiirev-Adya., Bat B., Bayarbaatar L., Tserendash S.

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

MethodologiesMethodologies Long list Long list Short listShort list AnalysisAnalysis DiscussionsDiscussions

ContentsContents

MethodologiesMethodologies

expert judgmentexpert judgment adaptation screening matrixadaptation screening matrix simulation of animal behaviorsimulation of animal behavior economic analysis of intensive farm economic analysis of intensive farm

development development adaptation decision matrixadaptation decision matrix

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

Expert judgmentExpert judgment

Long listLong list Pasture and feedPasture and feed Livestock herding practiceLivestock herding practice LivelihoodLivelihood Food supply of big citiesFood supply of big cities Research on climate changeResearch on climate change

AdaptationAdaptation screeningscreening matrixmatrix

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

Pasture and feed:19 Livestock herding practice: 15 Livelihood: 14 Food supply of big cities: 3 Research on climate change: 2

AdaptationAdaptation screeningscreening matrixmatrix

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

Criteria Opportunity Priority Effectiveness Impact on environment Cost Barrier

  Adaptation options Priority Target of Opportunity

Effective-ness

Impact on Environ-

mentCost Barrier

Food supply

Develop intensive dairy farming High High High Low High Medium

Develop intensive farming for meat High High High Low High Medium

Develop intensive farming other than livestock High High High Medium High Medium

CC

Establish climate change monitoring High High High None Medium None

Develop climatic criteria for dzud and drough High High High None Medium None

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

AdaptationAdaptation screeningscreening matrixmatrix**

Short listShort list Pasture and livestock herding management

Assessment of the pasture carrying capacity at soum level, Ecological Classification of pasture for livestock herding, Pasture classification by season Develop management concepts for Livestock herding by socio-economic

regions, Develop management system for animal productivity improvement Extension of grazing time

Feed Preparation of supplementary feed: plant and non-plant Encourage to reserve irrigated hay area, Encourage to reserve irrigated pasture,

Livelihood Develop alternative income source Awareness raising and education at all level

Food supply Develop intensive dairy farm near to big cities, Develop intensive farm for meat production near to big cities,

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

Pasture capacityPasture capacity

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

Pasture Seasonal CampingPasture Seasonal Camping

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

H- autumn camping, X-spring camping, 3-Summer camping, Q- winter camping,

movement direction

Pasture Seasonal CampingPasture Seasonal Camping

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

Socio-Economic regionsSocio-Economic regions

Table 1.Ewe weight changes in increased (10,20,30%) pasture peak biomass

(HADCM3,)

Changes of peak biomass,% 10 20 30 Ecosystem

Impact results 2020

Forest steppe -0.31 -0.17 -0.09 -0.02

Steppe -0.28 -0.10 -0.01 0.18

High mountains -0.03 -0.06 0.02 0.12

Gobi -0.11 0.05 0.15 0.22

2050

Forest steppe -0.78 -0.48 -0.32 -0.08

Steppe -0.46 -0.37 -0.23 0.02

High mountains -0.34 -0.28 -0.12 0.06

Gobi -0.51 -0.26 0.05 0.18

2080

Forest steppe -2.38 -1.41 -1.04 -0.61

Steppe -1.99 -1.42 -1.00 -0.70

High mountains -1.89 -1.89 -0.76 -0.50

Gobi -1.28 -1.61 -0.88 -0.18

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

Simulation of animal behaviorSimulation of animal behavior vs. vs.

Supplementary feedSupplementary feed

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

2020 2050 2050Forest steppe 1.2 1.6 2.1Steppe 1.8 1.8 2.4High mountain 0.8 1.2 1.5Gobi-Desert 0 0 0.4

2020 2050 2050Forest steppe 3 3.4 3.6Steppe 3.3 4.2 4.6High mountain 1.9 2.3 2.8Gobi-Desert 0 0 2.1

Supplementary feedSupplementary feed

2080

2080

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

Preparation of Traditional supplementary feedPreparation of Traditional supplementary feed

Traditionally: hand prepared feed Plant Non-plant

Have prepared hand out on Plant Non-plant

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

Intensive farmingIntensive farming

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

0 25 50 75 100 125

Agro-climate Soil Landscape Vegetation Climate (max, min and average tº, soil moisture…)

Economic parameters Expenditure Income…….

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

DiscussionsDiscussions

Three level workshop: Local workshop Workshop at scientific community Workshop at Ministerial level

Present at Permanent Committee for Food and Agriculture of the Parliament

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

Local workshopLocal workshop

Current adaptation Current adaptation practicepractice

Current adaptation Current adaptation practicepractice

At herder’s levelAt herder’s level

Output of the workshopsOutput of the workshops

Were very effective in terms of Improving the understanding of climate change at

local level and disseminate the research information

Discussing the proposed adaptation options at local level and get feedback from local community

Almost all the adaptation option that was prepared by the expert team have been accepted by the local experts as well as herders

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

Adaptive capacityAdaptive capacity

-2.50

-1.50

-0.50

0.50

1.50

2.50

3.50

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-2.00-1.50

-1.00-0.500.000.50

1.001.502.002.50

3.003.50

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

National Eastern Central Khangain-mountain WesternPolicy 3 3 3 3 3Institutional 2 1 1 1 1Technical 2 2 2 1 1Financial 2 1 1 1 1Resource 2 3 1 2 1Infrastructure 2 2 3 2 1Score 13 12 11 10 8

Adaptive capacityAdaptive capacity

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

(Socio-economic adaptive capacity)(Socio-economic adaptive capacity)

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

Institutional FrameworkInstitutional Framework

Ministry for Nature and Environment

7 Departments 2 Agencies

NAMHEM

IMH

Monitoring

Ministry of Food and Agriculture

2 Departments

Livestock

Academy of science

Institute of livestock

Pasture plants

• institutions are there• no linkage

Adaptation decision matrixAdaptation decision matrix

Adaptation measures Criteria: Socio-economic Criteria Weight Prioritize

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

Some measuresSome measures

• IMH: predictions• Long term prediction for winter: October-

March• Prediction of pasture resources• Prediction on pasture capacity• Prediction of ewe weight for November-April

AIACC Asia-Pacific region workshop, Manila, Philippines, November 2004

Thank you for your attention!