adaptation for future food security

Adaptation for future food security

CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security

Sonja Vermeulen

Action plan of the Colombian Adaptation Strategy for Agriculture and Livestock

Ecuador’s National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (ENCC 2012-2025)

National Climate Change and Risk Management Plan for the Agriculture Sector (PLAN GRACC-A) of Peru

National Agriculture Development Plan 2006-2018 of Bolivia

Honduran Strategy for Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation (2015-2019) for the Sector of Agriculture and Livestock

Intended National Determined Contribution (INDC) for Costa Rica

https://ccafs.cgiar.org/scaling-out-scenario-guided-policy-and-investment-planning#.V4SJ4Ffo2Xc

AFRICAASIA

LATIN AMERICA

CCAFS & CGIAR: Science partner on agriculture in NAPs, NAMAs and INDCs

Acknowledgement: Ana Maria Loboguerrero, CCAFS

Agriculture prominent in INDCmitigation intentions

80% Parties include agriculture in mitigation actions & targets Source: Richards et al (2015)

80%

Agriculture prominent in INDCadaptation intentions

90% Parties that include adaptation in their INDCs refer to agricultureSource: Richards et al (2015)

90%

Now what will an ambitious adaptation plan for agriculture look like?

FOUR AMBITIONS

Manage climate risks

Use best possible analysis! of current and future specific climate risks of people’s capacities & vulnerabilities

Ambition 1:Manage climate risks

Raise food security

National breadbaskets matter, but just as important: people’s diets and nutrition jobs, livelihoods and incomes, especially among smallholder farmers

Ambition 2:Raise food security

Ambition 3: Transform industry

Transform industry

Transformed agri-food systems will have: more jobs and value-add in post-farm supply chain fairer deals for farmers, traders & workers more diversity in products less import-dependence less waste

Take low carbon pathway

Ambition 4: Take low carbon pathway

Wherever there are synergies with food security: decrease agricultural conversion of forests improve agronomic practices reduce food loss shift diets

Take low carbon pathwayTransform industry

Raise food security

Manage climate risks

Example 1: GROWING FISHIs aquaculture key to our future food security?

Aquaculture: manage climate riskse.g. rising sea level & salinity in Vietnam

Source: Mekong River Commission, 2010

50 cm sea level rise

e.g. cooperatives in Vietnam & community water management in Laos Fish ponds

Dry season community water-sharing for crops

Aquaculture: community-led solutions

Acknowledgement: Leo Sebastian, CCAFS

For more information: CCAFS SEA 2016. Assessment Report: The drought and salinity intrusion in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam.

Early Warning System

Carbon - smart

Water - smart

Yield-smart

Risk- smart

Community -smart

Site-specific nutrient

management

Pond water recycling, rice

rotations

New fish varieties,

stress tolerant

rice varieties

Salinity, drought, flood

monitoring and land use planning

Improved stakeholder interactions, year-round incomes, improved nutrition

Alternate wetting and drying

Mobile phone based agro-advisories

Aquaculture: integrated approaches to climate risks & farming systems

Aquaculture: low carbon pathways

Source: Ripple et al 2014

Aquaculture: impressive breakthroughs, but need to balance nutrition

Aquaculture: transforming the value chain

UN FAO

Acknowledgement: UN xxxxx

Innovations in processinge.g. improved smoking kilnsin Ghana

Aquaculture Stewardship Council

Innovations in retaile.g. new fish varieties& certificationin Australia

Transform industry

Take low carbon pathway

Raise food security

Manage climate risks

Rising climate variability is a main cause of farmer’s distresse.g. CV of monsoon rainfall, Madhya Pradesh, %

Acknowledgement: Pramod Aggarwal, CCAFS

Example 2: SHARING RISK Can we share climate risks in agri-food value chains more fairly?

Sharing risk: bad years destroy any incentive for farmers to invest

Costs Returns Costs Returns0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

EarningsFertilizerSeedLogisticsLabour

Cos

ts a

nd e

arni

ngs

Low input farm Higher input farm

GOOD YEARBAD YEAR

e.g. WFP Patient Procurement Platform

SUPPLY

Private sector off-takers

Input suppliers

Sharing risk: transform the value chain

via farmer cooperatives

Credit providers

INSURANCE?

Sharing risk: bad years destroy any incentive for farmers to invest

Costs Returns Costs Returns0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

EarningsFertilizerSeedLogisticsLabourYi

eld

/ ear

ning

s

Low input farm Higher input farm

GOOD YEARBAD YEAR

INSURANCEPAY OUT =

LOSTINVESTMENT

Sharing risk: several innovations enable affordable climate index insurance

Source: Chavez et al, 2015

Big data to calculate more accurate weather indices

Willingness of off-takers & retailers to share costs of insurance

Sharing risk: reward farmers for improved practices

16 % cheaper premium for farmers using drought-

resistant variety

Yield of drought resistant maize varietyNon-drought resistant variety

Sharing risk: further reduce risk with weather forecasts & agro-advisories

Rural radio in local languages

Mobile phones for extension advice

& payments

Take low carbon pathway

Raise food securityManage climate risks

Transform industry

Thank you!

ccafs.cgiar.org/research-highlight/new-papers-detail-latest-knowledge-agriculture-upcoming-climate-change

SBSTA 44 submissions on adaptation in agriculture

www.ccafs.cgiar.org

For many more ideas see: