adaptation for future food security
TRANSCRIPT
Adaptation for future food security
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
Sonja Vermeulen
Action plan of the Colombian Adaptation Strategy for Agriculture and Livestock
Ecuador’s National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (ENCC 2012-2025)
National Climate Change and Risk Management Plan for the Agriculture Sector (PLAN GRACC-A) of Peru
National Agriculture Development Plan 2006-2018 of Bolivia
Honduran Strategy for Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation (2015-2019) for the Sector of Agriculture and Livestock
Intended National Determined Contribution (INDC) for Costa Rica
https://ccafs.cgiar.org/scaling-out-scenario-guided-policy-and-investment-planning#.V4SJ4Ffo2Xc
AFRICAASIA
LATIN AMERICA
CCAFS & CGIAR: Science partner on agriculture in NAPs, NAMAs and INDCs
Acknowledgement: Ana Maria Loboguerrero, CCAFS
Agriculture prominent in INDCmitigation intentions
80% Parties include agriculture in mitigation actions & targets Source: Richards et al (2015)
80%
Agriculture prominent in INDCadaptation intentions
90% Parties that include adaptation in their INDCs refer to agricultureSource: Richards et al (2015)
90%
Now what will an ambitious adaptation plan for agriculture look like?
FOUR AMBITIONS
Manage climate risks
Use best possible analysis! of current and future specific climate risks of people’s capacities & vulnerabilities
Ambition 1:Manage climate risks
Raise food security
National breadbaskets matter, but just as important: people’s diets and nutrition jobs, livelihoods and incomes, especially among smallholder farmers
Ambition 2:Raise food security
Ambition 3: Transform industry
Transform industry
Transformed agri-food systems will have: more jobs and value-add in post-farm supply chain fairer deals for farmers, traders & workers more diversity in products less import-dependence less waste
Take low carbon pathway
Ambition 4: Take low carbon pathway
Wherever there are synergies with food security: decrease agricultural conversion of forests improve agronomic practices reduce food loss shift diets
Take low carbon pathwayTransform industry
Raise food security
Manage climate risks
Example 1: GROWING FISHIs aquaculture key to our future food security?
Aquaculture: manage climate riskse.g. rising sea level & salinity in Vietnam
Source: Mekong River Commission, 2010
50 cm sea level rise
e.g. cooperatives in Vietnam & community water management in Laos Fish ponds
Dry season community water-sharing for crops
Aquaculture: community-led solutions
Acknowledgement: Leo Sebastian, CCAFS
For more information: CCAFS SEA 2016. Assessment Report: The drought and salinity intrusion in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam.
Early Warning System
Carbon - smart
Water - smart
Yield-smart
Risk- smart
Community -smart
Site-specific nutrient
management
Pond water recycling, rice
rotations
New fish varieties,
stress tolerant
rice varieties
Salinity, drought, flood
monitoring and land use planning
Improved stakeholder interactions, year-round incomes, improved nutrition
Alternate wetting and drying
Mobile phone based agro-advisories
Aquaculture: integrated approaches to climate risks & farming systems
Aquaculture: low carbon pathways
Source: Ripple et al 2014
Aquaculture: impressive breakthroughs, but need to balance nutrition
Aquaculture: transforming the value chain
UN FAO
Acknowledgement: UN xxxxx
Innovations in processinge.g. improved smoking kilnsin Ghana
Aquaculture Stewardship Council
Innovations in retaile.g. new fish varieties& certificationin Australia
Transform industry
Take low carbon pathway
Raise food security
Manage climate risks
Rising climate variability is a main cause of farmer’s distresse.g. CV of monsoon rainfall, Madhya Pradesh, %
Acknowledgement: Pramod Aggarwal, CCAFS
Example 2: SHARING RISK Can we share climate risks in agri-food value chains more fairly?
Sharing risk: bad years destroy any incentive for farmers to invest
Costs Returns Costs Returns0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
EarningsFertilizerSeedLogisticsLabour
Cos
ts a
nd e
arni
ngs
Low input farm Higher input farm
GOOD YEARBAD YEAR
e.g. WFP Patient Procurement Platform
SUPPLY
Private sector off-takers
Input suppliers
Sharing risk: transform the value chain
via farmer cooperatives
Credit providers
INSURANCE?
Sharing risk: bad years destroy any incentive for farmers to invest
Costs Returns Costs Returns0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
EarningsFertilizerSeedLogisticsLabourYi
eld
/ ear
ning
s
Low input farm Higher input farm
GOOD YEARBAD YEAR
INSURANCEPAY OUT =
LOSTINVESTMENT
Sharing risk: several innovations enable affordable climate index insurance
Source: Chavez et al, 2015
Big data to calculate more accurate weather indices
Willingness of off-takers & retailers to share costs of insurance
Sharing risk: reward farmers for improved practices
16 % cheaper premium for farmers using drought-
resistant variety
Yield of drought resistant maize varietyNon-drought resistant variety
Sharing risk: further reduce risk with weather forecasts & agro-advisories
Rural radio in local languages
Mobile phones for extension advice
& payments
Take low carbon pathway
Raise food securityManage climate risks
Transform industry
Thank you!
ccafs.cgiar.org/research-highlight/new-papers-detail-latest-knowledge-agriculture-upcoming-climate-change
SBSTA 44 submissions on adaptation in agriculture
www.ccafs.cgiar.org
For many more ideas see: